181
FXUS65 KVEF 150530
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
930 PM PST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A low pressure system will continue to impact the region with
  cooler than normal temperatures and unsettled weather continuing
  through the weekend.

* A Flood Watch is in effect for Inyo and San Bernardino Counties
  from 4:00 am PST Saturday to 4:00 am PST Sunday.

* This active weather pattern will continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next Thursday.

The latest infrared and water vapor satellite imagery shows a closed
low driving another plume of moisture into Southern California.
As this moisture continues to push into our forecast area, we will
see it fuel another round of showers across San Bernardino and
Inyo counties this afternoon and evening. Another, more
substantial round of showers will push into southeastern
California overnight, eventually making it`s way into southern
Nevada and northwestern Arizona as the aforementioned low moves
inland and into our forecast area. With widespread moderate-to-
heavy rain expected across the region and the potential for
thunderstorms embedded within these showers, expect water to be
flowing in normally dry washes, water ponding on roadways/low
lying areas, and slippery roads as dust, oil, and dirt is lifted
from the pavement. With snow levels expected to be above 10,000
feet for most of the event, impactful snow accumulation is not
expected outside of the Sierra Crest and the peaks of the Spring
Mountains. Snow levels will drop to around 8,000 feet on the back
side of this system Saturday night into Sunday morning. However,
precipitation will be tapering off during this time, making it
difficult for more than 2 to 4 inches of snow to accumulate in
Kyle and Lee Canyons at the tail end of this event.

As the aforementioned closed low rotates inland, it will
cyclonically wrap the moisture plume around it, helping to drive
moderate-to-heavy rain across San Bernardino County and into Inyo
County starting during the overnight hours. Showers and embedded
thunderstorms will continue throughout the day on Saturday as the
low continues to move through our forecast area. Precipitation
totals across Inyo and San Bernardino counties are expected to
range from half an inch up to 2.00 inches in areas of higher
terrain. Due to the elevated risk of flooding across San
Bernardino and Inyo Counties, a Flood Watch will go into effect at
4:00 am PST Saturday morning and will run through 4:00 am Sunday
morning. Rock/landslides will be possible in areas of complex
terrain, with flowing water expected in washes and creeks that may
normally be dry. Areas where washes cross roads or where roads
are in washes will be at risk of being impacted by flowing water.
If you must travel, make sure to check the forecast and road
conditions as road closures will be possible. Additionally, never
attempt to drive through flood waters as you do not know if the
road underneath has been damaged or washed out.

Our active pattern will continue into next week with another trough
following on the heels of this weekend`s system. This system will be
colder, knocking temperatures down to around 10 degrees below normal
for mid-November. Another round of mountain snow and lower elevation
rain will accompany this system on Monday and Tuesday. Another
system looks to follow this early week system, impacting the area
during the second half of the week. Stay tuned to the forecast if
you have travel or outdoor recreation plans.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...The
primary aviation concerns this forecast period are low ceilings
and visibility reductions due to moderate to heavy rainfall.
Ceilings through tonight will hover between 8-10kft, dropping to
3-5kft as rain showers move across southern Nevada and the Las
Vegas Valley mid morning onward. The heaviest, most impactful rain
is expected during the afternoon and early evening, though there
remains uncertainty in precise timing and impacts at the terminal.
Currently, there is a 50% probability for ceilings under 3kft,
and a 25% probability for ceilings 1kft or below at times. Expect
conditions to slowly improve late evening and overnight as
precipitation begins exiting the area to the east. Winds through
the period will remain light and somewhat variable, with speeds
under 8KT.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Low ceilings and low
visibility due to moderate to heavy rainfall are the primary
aviation concerns the next 24 hours. Rain showers will gradually
overspread the area from west to east through Saturday morning,
with the heaviest precipitation expected during the afternoon and
evening. Terrain obscurations are expected, with potential for
ceilings to drop to 1-2kft in heavier rain showers. Winds will
generally remain light and somewhat variable, with the exceptions
of the Owens Valley, western Mojave, and Colorado River Valley
where gusty diurnal winds to around 20-25KT are expected to
develop late morning onward. Conditions will be slow to improve
late evening onward, with precipitation expected to move eastward
out of the area beyond the end of the period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stessman
AVIATION...Phillipson

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