882
FXUS65 KVEF 031642 CCA
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
934 AM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High clouds will continue across the region through
tonight before clearing out Tuesday. An early June heatwave will
develop Wednesday through Friday with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees
above normal. Temperatures will slowly retreat closer to seasonal
averages over the weekend.
&&

.UPDATE...No immediate changes are needed to the forecast trends
detailed in the previous discussion. Considerable high clouds will
continue to spread across our area this afternoon and tonight then
will clear out Tuesday behind a potent Pacific Northwest trough
pulling away toward the northern plains and allowing a ridge to
begin building. This will lead to a significant heatwave developing
across our region and much of the western states Wednesday through
Friday. The latest NBM supports highs approaching 110 degrees in Las
Vegas by Wednesday and 110-112 degrees Thursday and Friday followed
by a gradual decreasing trend Saturday and Sunday.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...217 AM PDT

.DISCUSSION...Through next Sunday.

Parade of mostly high clouds will continue to stream across the
region through tonight as a potent shortwave plows through the PacNW
and northern Rockies. Behind the exiting shortwave trough a ridge of
high pressure over the eastern Pacific starts to build over
California/Nevada.

The ridge will continue to build and linger over the Intermountain
West Wednesday-Friday. Very hot temperatures for early June
predicted with values running some 10-15 degrees above normal.

To put this early heat in context, the current high temperature
forecast for Las Vegas on Thursday is 111, with a 90% chance of
exceeding 110. That would tie the earliest 110 observed in Las Vegas
on record - previously occurring June 6th, 2010. The current high
temperature forecast for Death Valley is 120. This would not be the
record earliest occurrence; however, Death Valley`s first 120 of the
season is normally June 15th, so it would be an earlier-than-normal
occurrence. If the temperatures overachieve at both Bishop and
Kingman and they hit 105 degrees Thursday, it would be the earliest
Bishop has hit 105, the current record occurrence is June 8, 2016.
While at Kingman it will be the 4th earliest occurrence. Several
record high temperatures, and record high minimum temperatures in
jeopardy of being tied or broke this week.

There has been high confidence in the widespread major, more patchy
extreme HeatRisk for the lower elevation Wednesday and Thursday.
Confidence has increased that those HeatRisk values will stretch
into Friday now. Therefore, will be upgrading the excessive heat
watch to an excessive heat warning. It will also now include the
Owens Valley and northern Mohave County. In addition, will be
issuing a Heat Advisory for Esmeralda, central Nye and Lincoln
Counties, as well as the Spring Mountains and Sheep Range.

Greater uncertainty persists regarding the weekend forecast. Biggest
question remains just how much influence that weak closed low in the
vicinity of the Baja Peninsula will have on the area. Models
continue to slow its northward movement which will affect just how
quickly temperatures begin to retreat.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light and variable winds will pick up
and swing around to the south later this morning/early this
afternoon. There is a 20% chance that sustained winds may swing east
of 160 degrees with sustained speeds greater than 10 knots during
this time. These southerly winds will persist for a few hours before
increasing further and swinging to the southwest. This southwesterly
shift will be accompanied by 20 to 25 knot wind gusts. Southwesterly
wind gusts will continue into the evening hours, with gusts dropping
off a few hours after sunset while winds maintain a southwesterly
direction into the early morning hours.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...The Colorado River Valley TAF sites will see light and
variable winds pick up from the south later this morning/early this
afternoon. These 20 to 25 knot southerly wind gusts will continue
into the evening hours when gusts will drop off but winds will
continue to maintain a more southerly direction. Light and variable
winds will pick up and swing to the westerly around mid-afternoon at
KBIH. These 20 knot westerly gusts will continue into the early
evening hours before swinging to the northwest around 02/03 UTC.
Light and variable winds at KVGT will begin veering around to the
southwest and increasing in speed later this morning. Both KVGT and
KHND will see winds settle in from the southwest during the early
afternoon hours. These 20 to 25 knot southwesterly wind gusts will
continue into the evening hours. KDAG will see 8 to 12 knot westerly
winds shift to the west-northwest around mid-morning before picking
up and shifting to the west-southwest later this afternoon. These 25
to 30 knot west-southwesterly wind gusts will continue into the
overnight hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Very hot temperatures for early June will occur as
readings will be 10 -15 degrees above average Wednesday-Friday.
South-southwest afternoon breezes each day through the week with
gusts between 15 and 25 mph. Minimum relative humidity values 10-20%
today and Tuesday before returning to the single-digits for
the second half of the week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pierce
AVIATION...Stessman

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