693
FXUS65 KVEF 180831
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1231 AM PST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Widespread rain and mountain snow continues across the region
  today and tonight, with periods of locally heavy rainfall possible
  at times through this evening. Precipitation will linger into
  Wednesday and Thursday, but should not be as widespread, steady,
  or as impactful.

* A Flood Watch remains in effect as heavy rain at times could lead
  to flooding in low lying and sensitive basins. Winter Storm
  Warnings are in effect as heavy snow remains expected in the
  higher terrain of the Spring Mountains, Sierra, White Mountains,
  and peaks in the southern Great Basin.

* Another system will dig into the region late this week with
  continued active weather possible, but the track of the low is not
  as favorable for widespread precipitation. Mainly, it will
  reinforce the continued colder than normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Monday.

Radar through the early overnight showed two main features- an area
of steady precipitation shifting east into Inyo County associated
with the forcing ahead of the upper level low moving into the
central California Coast and then scattered showers developing in
southwest Arizona rotating north along what satellite shows as a warm
conveyer belt. So far, short term hi-res models are handling these
two areas decently comparing the ongoing situation to model trends.
In general, expecting these areas to shift north and east, filling
into much of Inyo County, southern Nevada, and Mohave County through
the morning. Highest concern for impacts through the morning is
southern Mohave County where HREF 3-hr QPF PMMs is targeting with
30%-50% probabilities for over 1in of rain. This is where impactful
rainfall amounts are already expected for today, and any
overachieving (which is possible given warm-conveyer belt dynamics,
training precipitation, plus any potential convection the HREF is
highlighting in the area this morning) putting the area at 1.50-2.00
inches total this morning. Further north and west, steady light to
moderate rain is expected through the morning, with heavy rain
possible at times which will drop 0.25-0.50 inches across a large
area. Rain should be falling for the Las Vegas morning commute.
Through the rest of the day, this trend will continue as bands of
precipitation rotate north through the region as the low slowly
shifts further inland. Thunderstorms are not out of the question
this afternoon as HREF 1-hr probability for thunder has increased
quite a bit from previous runs, especially in southern Mohave County
this morning then in southern Nevada this afternoon. By this
evening, these bands should dissipate with the focus for
precipitation shifting into southern Nevada and Mohave County for
tonight and Wednesday. In general, its going to be a wet day with no
major shifts from previous forecast or overall forecast thinking.

A Flood Watch is in effect through Wednesday early morning for Inyo,
eastern San Bernardino, far southern Nevada, and southern Mohave
County to capture the area at highest risk for rainfall and flooding
impacts, which seems to be on track based on the latest model
guidance. Snow levels around 7000ft through the day will drop to
around 6000ft tonight into Wednesday. This drop should occur after a
bulk of the precipitation is done, so winter impacts should remain
above 7000ft. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for many terrain
areas through tonight with the heaviest snow is expected. Moderate
winter storm impacts are likely with a low (20%-30%) chance for
major winter storm impacts.

Rain and snow should be limited on Wednesday and Thursday as the low
moves overhead. Some lingering moisture will remain over the area
but with minimal forcing, precipitation will be isolated and less
organized. Model reflectivities on Wednesday suggest a more
scattered, cold core-looking set up in the afternoon under the low`s
center in southern Nevada, with potentially more steady rainfall
further west as southerly flow continues to brush Mohave County.
Models are trending higher moisture longer over the area, which
could result in an increase in precipitation coverage and amounts,
but in general both forcing and moisture will be lower than what is
currently ongoing so impacts will also be lower. On Thursday, the
first low finally starts to lift out into the Four Corners area, but
right on it`s heels is another trough digging into the West Coast.
Trends continue to favor a more southerly and slower track, with
precipitation chances Friday and Saturday focused to the far
southern portions of the forecast area- however, there remains the
chance of some light showers and cooler temps as it moves off the
coast. After that, a much anticipated break is expected by Sunday
into the beginning of next week as ridging builds in temperatures
slowly moderate.


&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...
Light easterly winds continue with precipitation moving in before
daybreak Tuesday. As rain moves in, CIGs gradually drop, eventually
getting down to ~3kft (70% chance). Chances for CIGs less than 1kft
are around 25% from 14z to 00z. Expecting mostly light to moderate
rain, but probabilities for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon have
ticked up to ~25%. Opted to leave TS out of the TAF for now, but its
addition may be warranted in subsequent TAF packages. Looks like the
bulk of precipitation will exit the valley between 00z and 03z, but
vicinity showers are likely to linger overnight along with CIGs at 4-
5kft.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Widespread precipitation
will develop overnight and throughout the day Tuesday. In and around
the precipitation, expect reduced visibilities, low CIGs, and
significant terrain obscuration. Most of the area has 40-80% chances
of MVFR CIGs with 10-25% odds of IFR CIGs. Winds remain fairly light
across the region. Precipitation will largely be in the form of
light to moderate rain, but a few thunderstorms will be possible in
the Mojave Desert. Best chances (40%) reside in eastern San
Bernardino County and southern Mohave County Tuesday morning and
afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nickerson
AVIATION...Woods

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