464
FXUS65 KVEF 190402
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
800 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Widespread rain continues across the region for the rest of today
  and tonight, becoming less intense on Wednesday and Thursday.

* Heavy snowfall will impact areas of southern Nevada and
  southeastern California above 6000 feet in elevation.

* Another system will dig into the region late this week, bringing
  cooler temperatures and precipitation potential.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Monday.

An upper level low is currently centered over the Southern
California coast. Anomalously high moisture and strong difluence
aloft have led to widespread precipitation over the region. Rainfall
totals as of 1 PM PST include over 1 inch in Pahrump, over half an
inch in Death Valley, and over .3 inch in the Las Vegas area. There
are reports of flooding and debris across roadways in and around
Death Valley. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected to continue
into the evening before tapering off overnight. Additional
instability driven showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow
as the low passes overhead, particularly in northwestern Arizona.
However, this rainfall should be less intense compared to today. A
Flood Watch remains in effect for parts of southeastern California,
southern Nevada, and northwestern Arizona through late tonight.

Another challenge with this system is snow.fall. Snowfall totals are
rather unimpressive so far as warm temperatures have limited much of
it to rain.  Automated sensors in the Sierra above 9000 feet in
elevation have reported around 6 inches of snowfall with this event.
There was also a report in Aspendell of about 4 inches of snow. In
the Spring Mountains, between 3 and 6 inches fell near Lee and
Rainbow Canyons. Snowfall rates should increase this evening as
cooler air moves into the region, with totals between 5 and 10
inches possible at Lee and Kyle Canyons by tomorrow morning. A
Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for areas of Inyo, Clark,
Esmeralda, and Nye counties above 6000 feet.

Isolated precipitation remains possible on Thursday as moisture
lingers in the area, but without any considerable forcing totals
should be limited. Another low pressure system should move through
the southwestern United States towards the end of the week. This
system will dig further south and any precipitation should be
limited to San Beranrdino and southern Clark County. Cool air
associated with the low will help maintain below average
temperatures. Afterwards, guidance indicates a ridge early next
week, which should bring more moderate temperatures and quiet
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast
Package...Scattered showers will continue over the next few hours
with CIGS generally around 5k feet, but may lower to around 4k feet
at times through 08z. Visibility could also drop to around 5-6SM at
times through 08z. After 08z, showers will become more isolated, but
CIGS will still remain around 5-6k feet. There could be some areas
of fog or mist that could lower visibilities at times to around 5sm.
There is a low probability that visibility could lower to around 3-
4SM with fog or mist at times after 09Z. Expect to see isolated
showers Wednesday along with the possibility of CIGS dropping to
around 5k feet or less with some of the heavier showers. Winds will
generally remain less than 8 knots out of the east to southeast.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Rain showers, low
ceilings, and terrain obscuration will be the main concerns into
through midnight at all TAF sites expect KDAG where mainly partly
cloudy skies are expected. CIGS down to around 5k feet are possible
along with isolated visibility reductions. Winds will generally
remain 10 knots or less and be variable in direction. Expect to see
isolated showers once again Wednesday along with the possibility of
CIGS dropping to around 5k feet or less with some of the heavier
showers. Winds will generally remain less than 8 knots.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meltzer
AVIATION...Gorelow


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