323
FXUS65 KVEF 140004
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
404 PM PST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A low pressure system will bring gusty winds to portions of the
  region today with cooler temperatures and increasing
  precipitation chances starting tomorrow.

* Weather related impacts will increase through the weekend as
  the aforementioned system moves inland.

* This active weather pattern will continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next Wednesday.

The latest infrared and water vapor satellite imagery show an
upper- level trough digging along the coast of California helping
to drive a plume of moisture towards southern California.
Southerly winds in the Owens Valley and across the southwestern
Great Basin have already picked up in response to this trough as
it approaches the coast. These 35 to 45 mph southerly wind gusts
will continue through afternoon and into the evening hours,
decreasing overnight. Precipitation will begin in the Eastern
Sierra later tonight, slowly spreading east across southeastern
California into southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona tomorrow
as the low pressure system continues to dig along the coast.
Outside of the Eastern Sierra, where a Winter Weather Advisory is
in effect through 10:00 am PST tomorrow morning, precipitation
impacts are expected to be minimal to low with precipitation
tomorrow.

Impacts will ramp up on Saturday with widespread precipitation
chances across the region as the low swings inland along with the
most anomalous moisture. Snow-levels will start off above 9,000 feet
with the onset of precipitation, dropping below 8,000 feet as
precipitation begins to taper off on Sunday morning. Given that snow
levels will be above 9,000 feet for most of this event, winter
impacts will be minimal to low outside of the Sierra Crest. Due to
an increased risk of excessive rainfall, a Flood Warning has been
issued for Inyo and San Bernardino Counties from 4:00 am PST
Saturday morning through 4:00 am PST Sunday morning. Precipitation
totals across San Bernardino County are expected to be somewhere in
the 0.50 to 1.50 inch range with locally higher totals possible in
areas of higher terrain. Precipitation across Inyo County is
expected to be more variable due to the terrain with the southern
half to two thirds of the county expected to see the most rain. In
Death Valley, precipitation totals are expected to be somewhere
in the 0.25 to 1.50 inch range on Saturday with totals between
0.50 and 2.00 inches in the central and southern Owens Valley up
into the Eastern Sierra. Should a worst case scenario come to pass
precipitation totals in excess of 2.00 inches will be possible
in Inyo and San Bernardino Counties.

This active pattern of incoming troughs will keep temperatures below-
normal and through the forecast period, with persistent chances of
mountain snow and light valley rain. Stay tuned to the forecast if
you have travel or outdoor recreation plans.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Light
and generally variable winds under 8KT are expected through the
forecast period. FEW-SCT clouds between 10-15kft are expected
through mid morning, with flight conditions deteriorating
thereafter as ceilings drop to 8-10kft, becoming BKN-OVC as
showers move into the Valley. Most shower activity will be
confined to the higher terrain surrounding the Valley, though a
few showers impacting the terminal cannot be ruled out during the
late morning and afternoon.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Light winds around
5-10KT following typical diurnal directional patterns, then
becoming variable, are expected the next 24 hours. The exception
will be the northern Owens Valley and southwestern Great Basin,
including BIH, where gusty south-southeasterly winds to around
25KT are expected through the forecast period. Increasing low and
mid-level clouds are expected late tonight through Friday,
coincident with showers overspreading southeastern California and
southern Nevada. The highest probability for impactful rain
through Friday will be across southeastern California, including
BIH and DAG. Ceilings across much of the area will remain between
10-15kft, decreasing to 6-8kft across the western Mojave, Owens
Valley, and southern Nevada as showers move in through Friday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stessman
AVIATION...Phillipson

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