695
FXUS65 KVEF 152052
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1252 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Widespread rain, isolated thunderstorms, and very high elevation
  snow will continue through tonight as a strong storm system
  moves through, with shower chances lingering into tomorrow.

* A cooler storm system will bring renewed rain and mountain
  accumulations to the region Monday and Tuesday.

* Active weather continues through the forecast period, with
  another storm system expected late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next weekend.

Large closed low off the coast of Southern California continues to
stream deep moisture northward into the region, largely bypassing
the rainshadow effects of the regional terrain. Precipitation
amounts thus far have been generally light to moderate, with
the heaviest rainfall focused across the Spring Mountains and
southern Sierra Nevada region, both of which are being favorably
influenced by the easterly upslope component of the wind flow,
helping to wring out moisture on the eastern facing slopes.
Rainfall will continue across the region through this evening,
and given the strong forcing with the incoming shortwave and some
modest cooling aloft, a few embedded thunderstorms may form as
well as the heaviest activity moves through. Meanwhile, snow
levels have remained quite high - generally near 10,000 feet, but
will begin to descend tonight as cooler air aloft moves in,
falling to 6500-7000 feet by Sunday morning with some light and
slushy accumulations possible above those elevations. Drier
conditions are expected Sunday but the trough axis will remain
overhead, promoting upslope enhanced shower activity and some
light afternoon showers across the southern Great Basin.

The next storm in the series will approach the region Monday with
the trough axis swinging through on Tuesday. This storm will
bring another shot of widespread rainfall, as well as the
potential for greater winter impacts to the higher terrain as it
will be accompanied by snow levels in the 5500-6500 foot range.
Advisory level snow totals look probable across the Sierra and
Spring Mountains ranges, and some minor impacts may impact the
White Mountains as well.

After a brief break Wednesday, yet another storm system will
approach the region Thursday and Friday. There is a great deal of
uncertainty with this final storm, and there are some hints among
ensemble guidance this storm may trend further west and south
which could minimize the impacts to our region, but continues to
bear watching. Thereafter, ridging looks to build across the West
over the weekend allowing for a break in the active storm pattern
with dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Low
ceilings and periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will be the main
forecast concerns into tonight. Light, intermittent showers are
likely late this morning before steadier rain develops around 19Z.
With this rain, CIGs may fall into MVFR range, potentially as low as
2kft AGL, and visibilities could decrease to around 2SM at times
through mid-evening. Some improvement is expected by late evening as
shower activity becomes more scattered and CIGs lift to around 6kft
AGL. Additional showers are possible after 14Z, though these should
be more isolated and less impactful. Southwest winds are also
expected to increase Sunday morning, with gusts to around 20 knots
possible by midday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Low ceilings and reduced
visibilities due to moderate to heavy rainfall will be the main
forecast concerns into tonight. Rain will continue to overspread the
area from west to east this afternoon, with the heaviest
precipitation likely between 18Z and 03Z. Terrain obscurations are
expected, along with the potential for CIGs to fall as low as 1kft
AGL along the eastern Sierra slopes and around 2kft AGL elsewhere in
areas of heavier rain. Winds will generally remain light and
somewhat variable into this evening before stronger south to
southwest winds develop as the rain diminishes from southwest to
northeast overnight.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Planz

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