811
FXUS65 KVEF 012059
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
159 PM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Temperatures remain near and above normal through the forecast
  period, with light winds and dry conditions through early in the
  week.

* Mid to late week, a trough will move through the region. While
  specific details remain uncertain, this trough is expected to
  bring increasing winds, a chance for precipitation for portions of
  the eastern Sierra, and slightly cooler temperatures late in the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The quiescent pattern will continue through early next week, as
midlevel ridging gives way to southwesterly flow aloft across the
region. A weak disturbance will translate northeastward across the
area on Monday with little fanfare aside from increased high clouds,
with continued light winds and temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees
above normal expected through at least Tuesday.

The aforementioned transition to southwesterly flow aloft is in
response to a deepening trough dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska,
progged to move ashore over the Pacific Northwest late Tuesday into
Wednesday. There is still uncertainty regarding this system, as its
trajectory and strength will dictate the degree of impacts felt
across southeastern California, northwestern Arizona, and southern
Nevada. Ensemble trends have indicated that this trough will pass
to the north of the region and dampen as it translates from the
Pacific Northwest across the Great Basin, reflected in the blended
model solution by decreasing precipitation chances (roughly
10-25%) now focused across the eastern Sierra in northwestern
Inyo County. The primary impact from this system looks to be
increased winds, especially on Wednesday afternoon. There remains
a 40-60% chance for westerly downslope winds to reach Advisory
level across northern portions of the Owens Valley, roughly from
Lone Pine to north of Bishop. Additional focus areas for winds
will be across the higher terrain of San Bernardino County and
across the western Mojave Desert, where there is a 50-70% chance
to see gusts of 40 mph or greater, and across the Spring
Mountains northward toward Indian Springs, where there is roughly
a 40-50% chance of wind gusts of 40 mph or greater. In the wake of
this system, temperatures Thursday are progged to cool down
around 5 degrees below Wednesday`s highs, still remaining slightly
above normal for early November, with quasi-zonal flow
maintaining near and slightly above normal temperatures
thereafter. Details will continue to be refined in coming days as
the evolution of this system becomes clearer, so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Light
winds will continue through the forecast period, remaining under
8KT and following typical diurnal directional patterns. VFR
conditions prevail.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds will follow
typical diurnal directional patterns the next 24 hours, with
speeds remaining around 8KT or less. The exception will be
portions of the Lower Colorado River Valley including IFP, where
northerly winds will briefly increase to 10-12KT this afternoon.
VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Phillipson


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