025
FXUS65 KVEF 071955
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1255 PM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will gradually break down this weekend as
a trough approaches the West Coast. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms
will occur over portions of Inyo County and south central Nevada
through Saturday. Temperatures will slowly retreat over the weekend,
but will remain above normal into next week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Sunday night.

Temperatures this afternoon are on track to peak 1-3 degrees lower
than Thursday, but will still be close to tying or breaking record
highs. The slight cooling is due to 500mb height falls associated
with a weak shortwave trough moving over CA/NV. The 12Z Las Vegas
sounding revealed noticeable drying in the 600-500 layer compared to
yesterday and will not support the kind of cumulus development and
showers late this afternoon over the Spring Mountains that were
observed yesterday. However, there will be sufficient moisture (0.75-
1.0" PWAT values), instability and some dynamic lift associated with
the aforementioned trough that will enhance convection this
afternoon and evening resulting in isolated to scattered
thunderstorms extending from central/southern Inyo County across
central Nevada then gradually diminishing this evening after sunset.

The heat wave will lose its grip on our region by Saturday evening.
A more pronounced, but weak, trough moving into the California Coast
will bring temperatures down an additional 2-3 degrees Saturday and
another 3-5 degrees Sunday...leading to highs 100-105 degrees across
most of the Mojave Desert sites. No changes to the Excessive Heat
Warning/Heat Advisories, the majority of which will expire this
evening followed by Death Valley, and portions of Clark/southern Nye
counties Saturday evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will
be confined to the Sierra and central/northern Nevada Saturday and
Sunday afternoon. Afternoon south-southwest breezes will occur each
day with peak gusts 20-25 mph Saturday and 25-30 mph Sunday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday.

Trough moving into the west coast will help develop a cutoff low off
the southern California coast Monday and remain nearly stationary
before being caught up in mean flow Wednesday or Thursday and pushed
northeast into the Desert Southwest. There is no indication at this
time that we will see any moisture influx with this low, but as the
previous shift mentioned, there are often surprises with these
systems. The latest extended model ensembles show a broad trough
digging into the western US late next week. Although we could see a
slight bump in temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday, it looks like
temperatures could fall closer to normal toward the end of next week.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...The winds will become more
southerly by mid afternoon and then southwesterly late this
afternoon. Wind gusts of 15 to 20 knot will continue into the
evening hours before dropping off around sunset. Winds will become
light and variable overnight before east to southeast winds develop
again during the late morning hours on Saturday. No operationally
significant cloud cover other than BKN high clouds above 20k during
the late afternoon and evening hours.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Similar to yesterday, KBIH will see afternoon
convection in the higher terrain surrounding the Owens Valleys. Low
confidence in any showers or thunderstorms moving off the terrain
and impacting the terminal. However, outflow winds could result in
breezy winds from varying directions. Breezy southerly-to-
southwesterly winds will continue at most terminals with 15 to 20
knot wind gusts continuing into the evening hours before dropping
off. The exception being KDAG will favor a more westerly to west-
southwesterly direction with 20 to 30 knot wind gusts. Similar winds
are expected again on Saturday.
&&

.CLIMATE...Several record high temperatures and record high minimum
temperatures have been tied or broken this week. The table below
shows the daily record high temperature and record high minimum
temperature for June 7 and June 8.

RECORD HIGH     FRI, JUNE 7     SAT, JUNE 8
                Record(Yr)      Record(Yr)

Las Vegas       109(2013)       112(2013)
Bishop          103(2013)       105(2016)
Needles         117(2013)       118(1955)
Barstow-Daggett 112(1985)       113(2013)
Kingman         106(2013)       107(1955)
Death Valley    123(1995)       123(2013)

RECORD WARM     FRI, JUNE 7     SAT, JUNE 8
LOW             Record(Yr)      Record(Yr)

Las Vegas       86(2010)        84(2016)
Bishop          61(2016)        64(2014)
Needles         95(2016)        85(2013)
Barstow-Daggett 81(2002)        77(2016)
Kingman         74(1928)        74(1927)
Death Valley    93(2006)        94(2022)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adair
LONG TERM...Gorelow
AVIATION...Czyzyk

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