815
FXUS65 KVEF 220541
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
938 PM PST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered showers this afternoon across the region with another
  push from wraparound moisture overnight. This system will move
  south and east by tomorrow morning with stray showers lingering in
  southeast California and northwest Arizona tomorrow.

* A warming and drying trend will begin tomorrow evening, with
  breezy northerly winds over the Lower Colorado River Valley
  anticipated midweek thanks to northwest flow aloft.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Friday.

The low pressure system that has brought ample moisture to the
region the last few days will meander into northern Mexico this
evening. Latest observations show over an inch of precipitation in
southern San Bernardino County and record daily precipitation
yesterday of 0.44 inches in Death Valley! Scattered showers will
briefly taper off this afternoon before redeveloping overnight,
with the best chance for precipitation over southeast California
and southern Mohave County. Another push of showers will move over
Clark County and northern Mohave County this evening between 8pm
PST and 12am PST, with around a few hundredths to up to a quarter
of an inch of additional precipitation anticipated tonight.
Limited instability with this system will keep lightning potential
minimal, with the best chance of thunderstorms over San
Bernardino County and northwest Arizona tomorrow evening. Areas of
localized nuisance flooding and ponding of water could occur with
heavier showers, primarily in southern San Bernardino County and
near the CA-AZ border.

This system will move east by tomorrow morning, with stray showers
continuing tomorrow across the region. Widespread drying will occur
by Sunday, with warmer temperatures anticipated through next week as
high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific. Northwest flow aloft
will help move shortwave troughs into the region, aiding in breezy
northwesterly wind development over the Lower Colorado River Valley
on Tuesday and Wednesday. Zonal flow will shift into the region by
Thanksgiving Day, with temperatures cooling slightly as another cut
off low looks to move into the area late next Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast
Package...Rain shower activity will continue to wane through the
night with VCSH expected through the TAF period. The next best
chance for light rain showers will be mid-to-late morning tomorrow.
In the afternoon there will be another chance for rain showers, but
confidence is low in location and timing. The afternoon/evening will
also have up to a 10% chance for thunderstorms. Winds may still be
squirrely overnight, but diurnal winds are generally expected to
prevail. Winds will likely strengthen and reach/exceed 10 knots by
18Z, remaining at or near that threshold through the remainder of
the TAF period. Impactful ceilings of FL050 are expected through 18Z
with gradual improvement to FL100 expected into tomorrow afternoon.
Passing rain showers tomorrow afternoon will likely lower ceilings.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...With the exception of
BIH, wrap around rain showers will remain possible through the TAF
period. There`s also up to a 10% chance for thunderstorms tomorrow
afternoon/evening. Low-end VFR conditions are expected to prevail
with high-end MVFR conditions possible in rain showers. Winds will
be diurnal, strengthening to become moderate by tomorrow afternoon.
Conditions improve towards the end of the TAF period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Adams
AVIATION...Sarment

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