127
FXUS61 KPBZ 040840 AAA
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
340 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Low pressure
returns rain chances for Wednesday afternoon. Dry weather
returns Thursday, before a series of crossing cold fronts
return unsettled weather through the weekend. Much colder
temperatures and snow chances are expected Sunday night and
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and seasonable today

---------------------------------------------------------------

A large area of surface high pressure, centered across the
TN/OH Valley, will result in dry weather across the region
today. A low level jet currently over the region will exit the
area later this morning before mixing begins, keeping wind
gusts to around 25 mph.

Some increase in mid and high clouds is expected by this
afternoon as warm advection begins. High temperatures are
expected to be near seasonable levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain chances and gusty wind returns Wednesday
- Dry and colder Thursday

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A surface ridge will maintain dry weather tonight as it shifts
east of the region. A shortwave trough, and its associated
surface low/cold front, will approach from the Upper Midwest
through the day Wednesday, with increasing cloud cover. Rain
chances will return in the afternoon and evening as this system
cross the Upper Ohio Valley region. The highest POPs are
currently forecast near and north of I- 80 where the best
ascent and upper level support is progged. QPF is expected to
be light, with deep layer moisture limited. The current NBM
probability of a tenth of an inch or greater is around 20% for
areas around PIT, and 50-60% for areas along and north of I-80.

In addition, a tightening pressure gradient ahead of the front will
result in gusty SW wind through the day. Speeds up to 35 mph are
expected, with higher gusts possible in the ridges. Gusts will
continue after FROPA, with cold advection steepening lapse rates.
While current HREF and NBM probabilities for Wind Advisory
criteria are low outside of Tucker county WV (20 percent or
less), gusts from 35-40 mph are likely. SPC has outlined areas
mainly N of I-80 in a Marginal Risk for damaging convective wind
gusts Wednesday afternoon and evening. Little, if any,
instability is progged-though with a strong wind field aloft
some of this could mix down in a heavier convective shower.

Partial clearing is expected later Wednesday night in cold, dry
advection, through stratocu should persist especially north of PIT
under cold NW flow. Temperatures on Wednesday should be around 10
degrees above average, with more seasonable cool readings returning
on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
- Rain returns Friday and Friday night
- Unsettled through the period
- Much colder with snow chances by early next week

-------------------------------------------------------------------

A shortwave trough and associated surface cold front will approach
the region from the Midwest on Friday. Rain chances increase through
the day with increasing moisture and ascent in southwest flow ahead
of the system. Rain chances will continue into Saturday another,
weaker, shortwave aloft crosses the region.

An increasingly amplified pattern is then expected Sunday into
next week. A deepening trough and surface cold front are
expected to approach and cross the region Sunday, with rain
overspreading the area. Cold advection behind this front/trough
is expected to result in rain mixing with and changing to snow,
as 850mb temps drop to around -8 by Monday morning. A
reinforcing trough will maintain snow chances through the day on
Monday. Some lake and terrain enhancement is possible, though
uncertainty exists on the details. At this time, the highest
probabilities for accumulating snow are north of I 80, and in
the ridges.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Recent
settling of wind to 5-10 knots with no (or infrequent) gusts at
area terminals is resulting in some non-convective LLWS during
the next few hours, except at MGW and ZZV where winds aloft are
not strong enough to meet criteria. The 850mb jet should shift
off to the east by around 09Z, ending the LLWS threat. The lull
in winds is expected to persist through the morning before
deeper boundary layer mixing allows gusts to 20-25 knots to return
this afternoon. Winds then settle again overnight into early
Wednesday.

.OUTLOOK...
A weak cold front will pass through Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night with gusty winds to around 25 kts. This system
brings rain chances back to the area, but confidence in any
associated restrictions impacting area terminals remains low.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Cermak/Milcarek/Shallenberger