851
FNUS73 KAPX 161026
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Loud Buck...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
626 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on May 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Increasing mid-high clouds expected at the burn site
midday through the afternoon leading to filtered/partly sunny skies,
but with temperatures rising to near 70 degrees. Moisture will be on
the increase this evening, but not before RHs this afternoon likely
bottom out in the mid-30 percent range. Light southeast winds today
with highest gusts between 10-15 mph. Scattered shower and storm
chances do increase tonight in conjunction with that influx of moisture,
mainly after 11 PM at the burn site. A few scattered showers/storms may
continue early Friday with increasing sun by late in the afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Increasing clouds (30-40 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........36 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming east 5 to 6 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....East 7 to 8 mph shifting to the southeast 8 to
                    9 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1500-3200 ft AGL increasing to 2900-3500 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (125.0-317.0).

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........25  33  40  47  43  39  35
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............61  65  66  67  68  68  69
RH..............51  43  40  37  36  37  37
20 ft wind dir..NE  E   E   E   SE  SE  SE
20 ft wind spd..6   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 ft wind gust.8   9   9   9   10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 2.3 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.3 2.9
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.8   7   8   8   9   9   9
Vrate kt-ft.....125 160 256 279 317 302 266
Ventrate Cat....PR  FR  FR  FR  GD  GD  FR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the evening.
                    Rain showers likely and chance of thunderstorms
                    overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........100 percent.
20-foot winds.......East winds 5 to 6 mph in the evening becoming
                    light. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 9 mph shifting to the south 10
                    to 12 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......400-1900 ft AGL.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (30.0-157.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........44  53  63  67  71  75  77  79  81  83  86  89
Weather cov.....                    SCH SCH SCH LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....                    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                    SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............67  65  61  57  54  53  53  53  52  52  52  52
RH..............42  46  56  67  74  77  80  83  89  93  96  100
20 ft wind dir..SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S
20 ft wind spd..7   7   7   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 ft wind gust.10  10  10  8   8   8   6   6   6   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Haines index....5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3
Transp wind dir.SE  E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.8   8   8   9   8   9   9   9   9   12  10  10
Vrate kt-ft.....157 102 74  36  30  36  39  36  36  48  41  44
Ventrate Cat....FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    partly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of rain
showers and thunderstorms.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........58 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......400-2200 ft AGL increasing to 2400-2600 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (44.0-219.0).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........89     89     79     67     54     43
Weather cov.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
Temp............50     54     61     65     68     70
RH..............100    100    84     73     65     59
20 ft wind dir..S      S      S      S      S      SE
20 ft wind spd..5      5      6      6      6      6
20 ft wind gust.7      7      10     10     10     9
Mix hgt (ft)....400    500    1200   2200   2500   2600
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
Transport wind..S 10   S 10   S 10   S 9    S 8    S 7
Vrate kt-ft.....44     49     126    212    203    186
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   FAIR   FAIR   FAIR

$$
Forecaster...MJG
Requested by...Corey Smith
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414369.0/APX
.DELDT 05/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL corey.smith@usda.gov