Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 281501

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1001 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Issued at 957 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Little change to the ongoing forecast for today other than to
blend to observed trends through 14 UTC, which was namely to
increase cloud cover for today.

UPDATE Issued at 633 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Some fog continues to linger over north central North Dakota into
the James River Valley, though visibility over most locations
remains over a mile. A few echos have shown up on area radars,
though doubtful anything is reaching the ground as cloud bases
remain quite high and soundings show a rather dry area between
cloud base and the surface. Updates have been sent.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Fog will be the forecast challenge through the early morning hours
of Friday. The 07Z RAP and HRRR are indicating patchy fog
primarily in eastern and north central areas, supported well with
current obs. Increasing west/northwest winds should limit
widespread dense fog.

For the rest of today, surface low pressure and a trailing cold
front will move eastward across the state. Though, another day of
seasonably warm weather is expected with highs nearing 20 degrees
above average in southern and central areas. Breezy northwesterly
winds will accompany the surface low as it scoots eastward.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

A return to seasonable temperatures marks the start of the long term

The 00Z ensemble and deterministic models are projecting progressive
flow aloft through the period, as a series of mid/upper level
troughs propagate across North Dakota.

On Saturday high pressure moves in at the surface; though aloft a
sagging low pressure system over the eastern Northwest Territories
will bring cooler Canadian air into the state. Highs will be in the
40s. The flow will also split on Saturday, as a short wave
transverses the northern plains creating favorable chances for rain
across the south. Much of the rain will stay in South Dakota.

The next trough is projected to start moving into the state Sunday
night through Monday, eventually closing over southern Manitoba.
Widespread chances for rain is in the forecast. Another trough is
depicted in the ensemble and deterministic models towards the end of
the period. Although, at this time, agreement within the models is
poor, chances for rain towards the end of next week is possible
along with a flake or two.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 957 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

IFR conditions in fog at KJMS may continue through 16 UTC, with
improving conditions thereafter. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
forecast across western and central North Dakota today. MVFR/IFR
ceilings are expected to spread across the area from north to
south this evening and tonight behind a cold front.




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