Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 311733
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1233 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO SPREAD LOW POPS
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CU FIELD CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP OVER THAT AREA...AND THE LAST FEW DAYS THIS HAS RESULTED
IN SOME LIGHT PRECIP. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST WAS IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TOWARDS CURRENT
TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 848 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MORNING UPDATE ADDRESSES SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE. HAVE KEPT POPS GOING FURTHER NORTH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BASED UPON DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING
NORTH OF THE BORDER. CLOUD COVER WITH THIS HAS ALSO BEEN
ADDRESSED. HAVE ALSO REMOVED FOG AS VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IS ON
TRACK AND SUPPORTED BY THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS AND INCOMING 10 UTC
HRRR. FORECAST BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 11 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. A COMPENSATORY
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS WAS CONTINUING
INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WERE SEEN
RIDING THROUGH THE RIDGE AXIS AND INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN OVER THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD...A SUSTAINING CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING THE AREAL
EXTENT AND TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

THE NAM12/HRRR/RAP13 ARE HANDLING THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FAIRLY WELL EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
MONTANA IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE TAKING SHAPE THROUGH THE DAY IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED
WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT MAINLY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 80 EAST
CENTRAL TO 90 WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
55 TO 60.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

A NOMINAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH ALL FIELDS WELL WITHIN ONE STANDARD DEVIATION OF
THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES CONTINUE TO BE IN
AGREEMENT ON DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH NEAR
ZONAL FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES PEAKING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH A SLOW RELATIVE COOL DOWN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION...THERE IS A NEAR DAILY
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH MULTIPLE LOW PREDICTABILITY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSITIONING TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JJS





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