Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 230340
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
940 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Snow continues to lift into southeastern portions of the area in
line with going forecast. Only change was to pull low snow chances
back a bit to the west as radar is showing some light activity
that has a chance to make it into Bismarck. With that said, the
chances do remain low and amounts would be minimal. Updates have
been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 643 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Going forecast continues to be in good shape as snow continues to
develop over far southern portions of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 259 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

The main forecast issue in the short term period will be snow
chances/amounts over the south central into the James River Valley.

Currently, a large upper level longwave trough was established over
the western US, with upper level impulses streaming northeastward
from the trough base over the 4-corners area into the central US
plains. Meanwhile a surface arctic high was over the Great Lakes as
a potent surface low continued to develop over Colorado.

Associated with the surface low over Colorado and the streaming
upper level impulses moving northeastward across the plains, a large
area of rain, freezing rain, and snow continued to develop over the
southern and central US Plains and will reach eastern portions of
the Northern Plains, including the Dakotas and Minnesota today
through Friday. The northwestern extent of precipitation is still
expected to reach southeastern North Dakota late this afternoon and
tonight, with the greatest impact in North Dakota in the far
southeast corner of ND. The western extent of the light snow is
forecast to reach far south central ND and the James River basin.

The heaviest amounts (up to around 3 inches) will be over eastern
Dickey county, with around an inch from Fort Yates through
Jamestown. Little or no snow is expected from Selfridge to Bismarck
and Carrington.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 259 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Friday night, the western longwave trough continues moving east,
with its axis reaching the into the western Plains Friday night and
crossing the plains states, including the Dakotas, on Saturday.
Expect another shot of light snow, mainly Saturday afternoon, along
and south of a line from Mandan/Bismarck to Carrington/Jamestown.
Amounts of only around 1 to 1.5 inches is currently expected in the
Lamoure/McIntosh/Dickey county area, with lesser amounts north and
west.

Thereafter, the upper flow begins to transition to a shortwave ridge
over the Dakotas as another longwave trough develops over the west
coast late in the weekend. The global models suggest this longwave
trough moving east across the southern/central plains next week,
keeping the storm track south and east of ND. The global models have
not been very consistent with this scenario for next week, so low
confidence and no mention of any significant precipitation for the
remainder of the long term period.

Temperatures through the long term period are expected to be
seasonable, with no Arctic intrusions seen through the middle of
next week. This would result in high temperatures anywhere in the
20s to lower 30s, and low temperatures in the single digits and
teens above zero for late February.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 643 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

MVFR to IFR conditions in snow expected over much of the James
River Valley into portions of south central North Dakota.
Conditions will improve to VFR Friday morning. Elsewhere, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS



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