Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 290215
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
815 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

THIS DISCUSSION IS DELAYED DUE TO UPPER AIR COMPUTER ISSUES THAT
FORCED THE MANUAL ENTRY OF THE DATA...A VERY LONG ENTRY OF
HUNDREDS OF CODED NUMBERS.

OVERNIGHT FORECAST WAS UPDATED FOR TEMPERATURES...TO LOWER THEM
ABOUT 3 DEGREE SOUTH AND 6 DEGREES NORTH BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS
AND LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ALSO STRONGLY CONSIDERED WERE THE
LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN INTO
CENTRAL MANITOBA. NEW LOWS ARE NOW FROM 5 BELOW AT BOWMAN TO 21
BELOW IN SOME CANADIAN BORDER COUNTIES. ONE BIG FACTOR WILL BE
CLOUDS. LOW CLOUDS WERE CLEARING NORTH AND CENTRAL...REMAINED WITH
-SN IN THE SOUTHWEST. NOW THE MID CLOUDS WERE OVERHEAD...AND THEY
TOO WERE DECREASING...A BIT...ACROSS THE NORTH. CLOUDS WILL BE KEY
TO LOWS MONDAY MORNING.

OF INTEREST ON THE IR SATELLITE THAT YOU CAN SEE OFF THE NWS
BISMARCK WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS IS THE COLD AIR SPILLING
SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. IF YOU DO TAKE A
LOOK AT THAT NOTICE THE DIFFERENCES FROM ALBERTA (CLOUDS) TO
SASKATCHEWAN (COLD AIR).

POPS WERE INCREASED SOUTHWEST...TO 100 MOST AREAS...AS IT IS
SNOWING THERE. IT IS IRRELEVANT WHETHER OR NOT 0.01 IS MEASURED IN RAIN
GAUGES. IT IS SNOWING WITH VISIBILITIES 1-2 MILES IN -SN...AND
RADAR SHOWS THAT WILL CONTINUE. UP TO 2 INCHES TOTAL SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS WERE DECREASED A BIT QUICKER NORTH BASED ON SATELITE
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

LIGHT SNOW NOW PRETTY MUCH CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AND BY THIS EVENING MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE LOOPS
SHOW THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF A MID LEVEL FEATURE IS MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST MONTANA. FOLLOWING THIS TRACK MUCH OF THE SNOW
WILL BE TRENDING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SKIES WILL
PROGRESSIVELY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN WERE 20 TO
25 BELOW ZERO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT THIS COLD AIR TO HEAD SOUTH
WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING CLOSE TO 20 BELOW NORTH
CENTRAL...10 BELOW CENTRAL...AND CLOSE TO 5 BELOW SOUTHWEST BY
MONDAY MORNING. WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH THE WIND CHILLS
WILL FALL WELL INTO THE ADVISORY CATEGORY NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
CENTRAL THIS EVENING. WITH WIND CHILLS WILL LOWERING TO THE
ADVISORY CATEGORY OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW 5 BELOW. ON MONDAY...WIND
CHILLS WILL BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 20 BELOW DURING THE DAY BUT RETURN
TO BELOW 20 BELOW BY THE EVENING. SNOW TOTALS STILL ONLY 1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

ARCTIC AIR REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...A
CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE
ARCTIC AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ARE THE HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM.

REGARDING THE ARCTIC AIR AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY:
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY OFFICIALLY ENDS AROUND
NOON ON TUESDAY - WITH WIND CHILLS REMAINING BELOW THE -25F CRITERIA
THROUGH NOON TUESDAY. TUESDAY AFTERNOON WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO
RISE INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTHWEST...BUT THEN THE
ENTIRE WEST AND CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE RETURNS TO AT OR BELOW THE
CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT. RECOVERY ABOVE WIND CHILL CRITERIA BEGINS
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND ALL AREAS ARE ABOVE CRITERIA BEFORE NOON
WEDNESDAY.

WILL KEEP THE CURRENT END TIME OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. LATER
SHIFTS WILL DECIDE WHERE/WHEN TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY. IN
SUMMARY...COLD ARCTIC AIR TO PLAGUE THE REGION UNTIL DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (NEW YEARS EVE AND NEW
YEARS DAY) AS DOME OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES SOUTH OF THE STATE...AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WARMING WILL OCCUR IN BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
DEPARTING ARCTIC DOME AND THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT DEVELOPS
BETWEEN THE ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NORTH AND MORE PACIFIC AIR FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY (NEW YEARS DAY).
LOOKING AT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE...AND HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE CONTINUED CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
AS ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR PLACEMENT OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE MENTIONED AS WE LOOK FOR THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS FOR
BETTER CONSISTENCY. WE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT`S LOWS OF 5 BELOW TO 15 ABOVE ZERO...TO
FRIDAY`S HIGHS OF 5 TO 20 ABOVE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WILL SEE THE REGION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS LOWS OF ZERO TO 15 BELOW FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A COOLING TREND TO 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE
ABOVE ZERO FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 800 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

SURFACE LOW ACROSS MONTANA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SNOW INTO SOUTHWEST ND...KDIK-KHEI UNTIL ABOUT 12Z.
NORTHEAST WIND IS UPSLOPE THERE ENHANCING THE SNOW. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH SOME
CLEARING NORTH. IFR CONDITIONS AT KDIK WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE
NIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR KISN-KMOT-KBIS-KJMS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NDZ017>020-031>037-042-045>048-
050-051.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
NDZ040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JPM




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