Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 011150
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
650 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AT 630 AM CDT UPPER LOW IS LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE STATE. MOST OF
THE RADAR RETURNS HAVE DIMINISHED. TRIMMED BACK THE POPS A BIT
FOR TODAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE REGION FORM MUCH
OF THE MORNING BUT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RAIN CHANCES
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TODAY.

CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR RUGBY. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUED OVER BOTTINEAU COUNTY...WITH MOST OF THE AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS NORTH OF THE LOW IN SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA. THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY
WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK...AND REACH
NORTHERN MANITOBA BY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION
OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...IT IS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH ENCOMPASSES THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
US AND CANADA. ONE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES WITHIN
THE LARGE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE CLOUD SHIELD SURROUNDING THE EXITING STACKED SYSTEM IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS (THE H925-H850 RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD) TO
REMAIN OVER NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. PLENTY OF STRATUS/CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON (WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS).

EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE EXITING LOW TO REACH THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE TODAY. THUS A BLUSTERY DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S.

DECREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S
WEST TO THE 40S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NOW APPEARS POISED TO GIVE NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUT FIRST...IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND POTENT COLD
FRONT...WARM AIR WILL GIVE RISE TO SOME MODEST CAPE THAT SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE H300 140KT JET ON BACK SIDE OF H500
TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN EXITING
JET ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN EASTERN ND/MN. THE GFS QPF
FITS THE MODEL FRONTOGENESIS PRETTY WELL AT H850 THAT THE NAM JUST
DOES NOT MATCH UP WITH AS STRONG...HENCE THE NAMS MUCH WEAKER
FIELD OF QPF. LATEST LOOK AT ECMWF COMPARES SOMEWHAT FAVORABLY
WITH THE GFS SO WILL TREND TOWARD A LARGER PRECIP AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDING ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD
WHERE THE MAX VERTICAL VELOCITY OVERLAYS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
BETWEEN -10 TO -20C. BELIEVE THE SNOW WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD
BETWEEN 1 AM AND 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. QPF AND SNOW RATIOS YIELD
ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW GENERALLY WEST OF MINOT IN BURK/MOUNTRAIL
COUNTIES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EAST AND WEST OF THIS. WIND WILL ALSO
BE AN ISSUE OF WHICH THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST. THE MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OVER MINOT HAS 57 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT
2500 AGL TO 40 KTS AT THE BOTTOM AT 7 PM THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WOULD CERTAINLY EVENTUALLY SUPPORT A WIND ADVISORY WITH AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF HIGH WIND CRITERIA (ASSUMING THE GFS VERIFIES AND IT IS
THE STRONGEST FOR WINDS.) TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S SHOULD
LIMIT BLOWING SNOW BUT IF IT GETS COLDER THERE WILL BE MORE OF A
BLOWING SNOW PROBLEM.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY END FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND WILL BE
PRETTY MUCH DRY WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A RATHER
LARGE H500 UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST. THIS TREND
CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014


WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY TO
VFR BY 18Z-20Z. VFR CIGS SCATTERING FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT
KISN/KDIK AROUND 00Z. WEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS ALL TAF SITES
TODAY...DECREASING AFT 00Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







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