883
FXUS65 KBYZ 081936
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
136 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of Today through Thursday Night...

Moisture. Is. Everywhere.
While the upper low supplying all the weather we`ve seen the past
few days is now located in western South Dakota and slowly progged
to move east over the next day, wrapping around it is still an
abundance of moisture flowing in to southern and central Montana.
Upslope into the foothills and mountains is deep as well, and
with a lot of moisture still available upstream, the current rain
over the lower elevations and snow in the higher foothills and
mountains will persist through tonight at it`s current rate. The
Livingston area (not including Bozeman Pass) will see their snow
slowly switch to rain this afternoon and evening, then likely
seeing low clouds and fog roll in overnight through tomorrow
morning, reducing visibilities along I-90.

Across the lower elevations, rain will persist through the
afternoon with the aforementioned moisture upstream continuing
to move south into southern MT with it`s upslope flow. While rain
should slowly diminish tonight, a persistent upslope through
Thursday could keep light to moderate rain continuing along the
foothills south of Billings. Despite all of the rain over the past
couple days and today, streams are expected to remain below any
potential flood stages. Only streams that may get close and have
some minor flooding of low-lying areas will be focused in the area
between Billings, Sheridan, WY, and Miles City, as those areas
have reported 3-4" of rain so far over the past 72 hours. While
those are very high amounts, the fact that the soil out there was
very dry and had room to soak up a lot of water, and that it fell
over a 2-3 day period assisted in preventing any major flooding
concerns.

On Thursday, one last, small push of moisture and rain showers
will occur across the area, but accumulation potential from this
will be much lower than yesterday or today, and little impacts are
expected from it. By the evening, winds will become westerly and
officially shut off the moisture from the area, ending this
weather system impacting us once and for all.
Vertz

Friday through Wednesday...

Building ridge aloft will bring dry and warmer weather Friday thru
the weekend. We should see temps in the 60s Friday then 70s
Saturday and Sunday. By Sunday afternoon the ridge will flatten
enough such that weak energy emerging from southwest Canada may
induce a few diurnal showers.

Above normal temps (70s to near 80F) will continue Monday, but
with an increasing chance of showers & t-storms in response to
lowering heights and a stronger shortwave emerging from the
developing WNW flow aloft. This energy will be associated with a
surface cold front, so there is potential for gusty winds by late
in the day as well.

Tuesday & Wednesday look more active and cooler as a couple of
additional waves drop thru an amplifying NW flow aloft. There is a
good chance (30-50%) of showers on each of these days, and
freezing levels will fall enough to produce some accumulating
snowfall over the mountains, above 7kft or so.

One final note. The upcoming warmer temps will melt much of the
wet snow that is currently falling at elevations between
6000-8000 feet. Do not see a flood risk, but rivers/streams
emerging from the foothills will likely see some rises this
weekend. Any higher elevation snow melt will end by Tuesday when
cooler temps arrive.

JKL

&&

.AVIATION...


A slow-moving storm system will continue to bring frequent showers
(especially west of KMLS & K00F) thru tonight and much of
Thursday. MVFR to IFR can be expected, with poorest flying weather
(possibly to LIFR in fog) along the foothills tonight into early
tomorrow. Mountains will remain obscured in snow, especially the
N-NE facing slopes. Brisk NW-NE winds (gusts 25-35kts from KBIL
eastward) will decrease tonight and be lighter Thursday. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/058 041/066 043/076 047/078 050/078 050/072 046/065
    97/W    30/U    00/U    01/U    22/T    35/T    33/T
LVM 038/054 036/063 037/073 043/078 046/077 045/068 042/064
    +7/W    20/U    00/U    01/U    22/W    24/T    33/T
HDN 042/061 041/067 039/077 045/079 047/080 048/073 045/065
    97/W    30/U    00/U    01/U    22/T    44/T    33/T
MLS 041/063 041/067 042/075 048/077 050/079 049/071 045/064
    44/W    10/U    00/U    01/U    12/W    33/T    22/T
4BQ 039/060 043/066 041/074 046/076 049/078 049/071 045/062
    44/W    20/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    34/T    23/T
BHK 036/064 039/067 041/075 045/075 047/079 047/069 040/063
    23/W    10/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    33/T    22/T
SHR 036/056 038/064 037/074 043/076 045/078 045/070 041/061
    95/W    31/B    00/U    12/W    23/T    45/T    44/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until noon MDT
      Thursday FOR ZONES 67-68-171.
WY...Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until noon MDT
      Thursday FOR ZONE 198.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings