477
FXUS61 KCTP 030620
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
220 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Scattered storms this afternoon and very early evening as a
  cold front moves through. Some may make gusty winds and hail.
* Drier/less humid/more comfortable conditions are likely for
  Independence Day.
* Trending warmer and more humid but rain-free this weekend
* Hot and unsettled weather returns next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Only a little fog developing in the deepest, darkest valleys of
the NW. There is a cluster of stems moving on-shore in NW PA
and wrn NY. This will likely break up/dissipate as it gets into
the nrn mtns. Rain is almost into Warren Co at 130 AM. Gusts
into the m-u20s are the worst it has done along the lakeshore
per obs. Expect any fog to be gone by 8 AM with the clouds from
the earlier convection across the far N dissipating, too. Good
forcing crosses the lower lakes later this morning and enter nrn
PA in the afternoon, rekindling deep convection. Severe
parameters aren`t shabby, with CAPE into the 1000-2000J/kg range
ahead of and along the cold front. Deep layer shear of 40-50KTs
at the peak could be enough to make some supercells, but mostly
clusters. However, we will be under the descending area of the
curved jet max at 5H. That is the ingredient which could keep
the convection suppressed somewhat. SPC has continued the Day1
Outlook exactly as the old Day2 = most of the CWA is in the MRGL
risk area with a SLGT risk barely touching the far eastern two
cos. Will continue to mention TS with small hail and gusty
winds. The worst of the storms will likely be off to our east.

Some lingering SHRA will last until just after sunset in the SE,
but it`s only worth a 20 PoP for isolated coverage. After the
front passes, which will be mid aftn in the N, and early evening
in the S, the air will dry out with sfc dewpoints into the 50s
by sunrise Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Friday looks like a stellar Independence Day. No risk of any
precip, and humidity getting very low during the afternoon. Have
strayed from the NBM dewpoints for Fri and Sat aftns, with
Friday being the largest deviance. Light N wind and good
sunshine Fri. Very dry air just above the sfc in the AM and
mixing to ~5kft in the aftn could drop dewpoints into the 40s
across the Allegheny Plateau and M50s in the SE. That may not be
enough of a move, but will start with that. Maxes on Friday of
U70s to M80s are very seasonable, and we`ll probably see a few
degs of uptick in temps Sat aftn. High pressure will provide a
dry time for both days. A little fog will be had in the valleys
since it gets close to 50F in the nrn mtns Fri AM, but the dry
airmass will work against it. Dewpoints are going to be low
enough on Sat AM that there won`t be much, if any, fog. Then,
the wind turns Swrly, and humidity levels start to creep upward
during the long holiday weekend, but no rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Compared to previous guidance, today`s model runs have slowed
down with the arrival of precip associated with a shortwave
trough late Sunday. Most of the day looks hot and mostly sunny
with highs in the upper 80s. PoPs increase into Monday as the
trough arrives. Monday should be the hottest day with L90s SE
of the Allegheny Front. Forecast uncertainty increases Tuesday
and Wednesday, as several ensemble members show showers/storms
lingering as the front slows down, while much of the
deterministic guidance has drier air pushing in.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Skies are mainly clear this evening over Central PA and VFR
conditions are expected through the night. Patchy valley fog
will likely form overnight, but model soundings suggest that
impacts at any TAF sites are unlikely.

The main focus through the 06Z Friday is a couple of shortwaves
that will traverse the region and bring isolated showers and
thunderstorms to portions of the area. The first shortwave will
move through overnight and may bring a few weakening showers
into BFD after 06Z. A PROB30 has been included to highlight this
threat. Most guidance suggests that these showers will struggle
to make it any farther to the east. Current radar and GOES
imagery shows a weakening trend in the convection has it comes
off lake Erie.

The second shortwave and its associated surface cold front will
move in during the afternoon and will trigger a few thunderstorms
over eastern PA. This cold front will be largely moisture
starved; however given the instability in the eastern portion of
PA it is possible isolated to scattered storms may cause some
impacts. These thunderstorms will have the best chance of
impacting IPT, MDT, and LNS, while areas farther to the west
likely remain dry. Confidence still remains low on development
and coverage of afternoon convection.

Outlook...

Fri-Sun...AM fog possible; otherwise VFR.

Mon-Tue...Thunderstorms developing in the afternoon.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
LONG TERM...Colbert
AVIATION...Bauco/Bowen