Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS48 KWNS 090852
SWOD48
SPC AC 090850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential should be low for a few days in the wake of the
eastern U.S. trough shifting offshore. Primary feature of concern
will be an amplified upper low, initially off the CA coast on D4,
that gets kicked east by an upstream wave digging towards the
Pacific Northwest through early next week. Air mass modification
will ensue northward from the western Gulf by late D4 with multiple
days to improve the low-level moisture profile amid well
above-normal surface temperatures. 00Z ensemble guidance, especially
the ECENS, has largely trended towards yesterday`s 00Z deterministic
guidance, with most members depicting pronounced lee cyclogenesis
around the eastern CO vicinity. Sufficient confidence exists to
initiate a severe weather highlight for D7 based on the consensus
timing of the shortwave trough ejection over the Southwest. Severe
potential will likely persist into D8 with an area-of-interest from
the southern Great Plains to the Upper Midwest. Spread is too large
within the latest deterministic runs and ensemble members to warrant
a 15 percent highlight yet.

..Grams.. 04/09/2024
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