569
FXUS63 KDDC 122156
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
456 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...Updated Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginally severe t-storms are forecast for this evening.
  There are chances for thunderstorms through tonight.

- Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night through Wednesday
  night.

- Mainly dry weather is forecast Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

An upper level cold pool (-16 to -18C at 500mb) was entering
extreme western Kansas this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms
developing near the Colorado state line will increase in areal
coverage through the afternoon. Other storms will pop up just
about anywhere with daytime heating given the lack of a strong
mid level capping inversion. The storms in far southwest Kansas
will form a cold pool this evening after evolving into a line.
The line could progress as far east as Dodge City and Coldwater
before weakening. The heaviest part of the line will tend to
shift southward as the highest instability resides across
Oklahoma. Given the decent lapse rates across the far southwest
and presence of a surface boundary, along with the -17C cold
pool, weak landspout tornadoes may occur before the storms
evolve into a line.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

The next item of concern is thunderstorm chances Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. An upper level disturbance will
approach CO/WY Tuesday evening. Ahead of this feature, air mass
recovery will take place on the western high plains (to the west
of Kansas) Tuesday evening. Expect high temperatures in the
upper 70s to mid 80s Tuesday. Thunderstorms will likely form to
the west of Kansas and then congeal into a large cluster of
storms Tuesday night. These storms will be fed by a 35 kt low
level jet across western Kansas Tuesday night, with the best
chances of storms with heavy rains along I-70 and possibly as
far south as Garden City and Dodge City. This overnight
convection will push an effective frontal boundary southwest
Kansas so that high temperatures should fall into the 70s on
Wednesday. As the disturbance approaches Wednesday, it is likely
that additional heavy rains will develop south and east of
southwestern Kansas where the warm sector instability will
reside. As a result, any rains across southwest Kansas may be
lighter in nature by Wednesday. However, some of the model
ensemble means keep the warm sector farther north Wednesday,
with a weaker storm cluster Tuesday night. If this happens, as
shown by the GEFS and ICON ensembles, then then heavy rain
chances would be delayed until Wednesday and Wednesday night.
The bottom line is that there is a lot of uncertainty in the
extent and timing of any t-storm clusters in the Tuesday night
to Wednesday night time frame, as is typical during the warm
season; and every ensemble suite has a different solution. That
said, for those interested in a probabilistic outlook, the
preferred ECMWF ensemble mean indicates 10-30% chances for .5"
of greater rain in central Kansas Tuesday night and 30-40%
chances of .5" or greater across central Kansas Wednesday and
Wednesday night, with lesser chances farther southwest.

Drier weather is expected by Thursday and into the weekend. The
upper level jet is expected to retreat northward into the
northern plains through the weekend, with warmer and mainly dry
weather across southwest Kansas. That said, there have been
dramatic day to day changes in the various model ensembles for
this time frame so that this dry forecast is made with below
average confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 456 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

KDDC radar scattered showers and thunderstorms near the
airports at 2145z, and this trend will continue through
06-09z Mon. Kept mention of showers and thunderstorms minimized
in this set of TAFs, with some mentions of VCSH/VCTS, with low
confidence of any direct impacts at terminals. Closed cyclone is
expected to be over north central Kansas at 12z Mon, when shower
coverage will decrease from west to east. Consensus of short
term models suggests a period of IFR stratus and reduced
visibility in BR/FG for several hours around 12z Mon, most
likely at HYS/DDC, and followed suit in the TAFs. Light and
variable winds tonight will trend light NWly through 12z Mon
behind the departing system. After 18z Monday, expect VFR to
return to all airports, with increasing north winds, gusting
25-30 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Turner