Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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190 FXUS63 KDDC 131009 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 509 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A slow moving storm system will keep isolated to scattered rain showers mainly in our eastern zones today. - Next opportunity for rain will come mid week (Wednesday and Thursday) - A few marginal severe storms are possible on Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 202 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 06Z observations and RAP upper air analysis shows a large, slow moving 5640 dm closed low centered just north of Dodge City with the main forcing in central Kansas where the majority of the rain showers are. Also a narrow band of rain showers near the I-70 corridor has developed in the vicinity of the low. At the surface a 1006 mb low is located in central Kansas and a weak high is centered in south central Colorado. Today the main focus will be the weak forcing on the backside of the low combining with some breaks in the clouds to produce some isolated to widely scattered showers and storms mainly along and east of highway 283 and the greatest chances along and east of highway 281. Short term models have been trending with the isolated nature from the more widespread nature in previous runs so POPs have been lowered to the 20-30% range today. West of 283 we should see some more peaks of sun and highs in the mid 70s. Temperatures in our eastern zones will depend on how socked in the clouds stay and how much rain falls but with peaks of sun trending we should see highs reach into the lower 70s. Winds will also increase through the day as the pressure gradient tightens with the departing surface low in eastern Kansas and the stationary high in Colorado. Winds will be in the 15-25 mph range with gusts over 30 mph possible. Tonight as the upper low departs farther east we should see the last bits of clouds clear in our eastern zones and with a high pressure centered in eastern Colorado we will have light winds. This should allow lows to fall into the 40s. Tuesday with an upper level ridge in the central plains and southwest winds warming the 850 mb levels to 15-24 (C) we should see a good rebound in highs as we will reach into the lower to mid 80s. As a shortwave moves in from the Rockies late in the day which will produce a surface low and a weak frontal boundary we could have enough lift to produce some isolated storms mainly north of highway 50 and west of highway 83. Moisture will be limited as dew points will be in the lower 40s so kept POPs between 10-20% in these areas. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 223 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will bring more storm chances as an upper level trough moving into Nebraska will drag in a cold front which should reach the I-70 corridor by 12Z Wednesday. POPs will be around 40% in these areas with 30-50% chance of receiving up to 0.1 inch. Wednesday afternoon into the evening as the cold front moves through western Kansas and the upper level forcing comes in from the northwest we should see more thunderstorms break out across the area and becoming more numerous in the evening. There will be enough instability (1000 J/kg CAPE) and shear (0-6 km ~35 kts) that a few storms could have a hail and wind threat. EPS and GEFS probabilities of >500 CAPE and > 40 kt shear are in the 10% range mainly south and east of Dodge City so the severe threat would be in these areas and the rest of the CWA will have rain and general thunderstorms. QPF probabilities of 0.25 inch or more are highest in these zones too at 50-60% and as you go north and west the probabilities reduce to around 20%. Thursday into Friday with the colder air moving in and the forcing forecast to be farther south the POPs have been reduced to mainly 10-20% near the Oklahoma border. The weekend is trending dry as ensemble upper air forecast are showing a weak ridge in the central plains. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 508 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Overall cloud ceilings should be VFR for GCK and LBL and periods of MVFR to IFR for DDC and HYS between 12-18Z. Spotty rain showers will be around DDC and HYS through 00Z. Winds will pick up after 14Z to 10-20 kt sustained and gusts to 30 kts are possible through 00Z. Winds should die down after 00Z and skies will clear in DDC and HYS during this time too. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tatro LONG TERM...Tatro AVIATION...Tatro