037
FNUS73 KFGF 091101
FWSFGF

Spot Forecast for Mjolsness...NATURE CONSERVANCY
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
601 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1600 CDT on May 09.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please call the NWS in Grand Forks at 701-795-5127 for additional
information and monitor our website (www.weather.gov/fgf) or NOAA
All-Hazards Radio for the latest updates.

.DISCUSSION...

The forecast for your burn site west of Ulen MN calls for dry
conditions with partly sunny to sunny skies, and light winds under
15 mph. Most likely RH values this afternoon will hover 30
percent. There is a 30% chance that RH values dip in the 23-30
percent range. Sunny skies throughout the morning and afternoon
will help realize this potential. Most likely winds this afternoon
ranges between 10-15 mph out of the north. There is a 20% chance
winds gust into the 15-18 mph during mid to late afternoon hours,
and will be realized if deeper mixing occurs with the help of
sunny skies throughout the morning and afternoon. High mixing
heights over 5,000 feet are expected today allowing for relatively
good smoke dispersion despite lighter winds.

Winds diminish tonight to less than 10 mph, along with lower
mixing heights as nighttime inversion sets in.

Friday will see increasing winds out of the west initially,
turning more northwesterly by afternoon gusting over 25 mph. RH
values will range from the upper 20s to mid 30s percent. A chance
for showers or thunderstorms exist Friday afternoon.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    sunny (10-20 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds up to 5 mph shifting to the north
                    late in the morning.
Mixing height.......7800 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........East 5 to 10 mph shifting to the north late in
                    the morning, then increasing to 10 to 15 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....3200 knot-ft early in the morning increasing to
                    85800 knot-ft in the afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........23  21
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............69  68
RH..............31  32
20 FT wind dir..N   N
20 FT wind spd..10  10
20 FT wind gust.13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...7.8 7.4
Mixing wind dir.N   N
Mixing wind spd.15  15
Vrate kt-ft/1K..86  81

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    southwest late in the evening.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 10 to 15 mph shifting to the west
                    around 5 mph late in the evening, then shifting
                    to the southwest overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....88200 knot-ft early in the evening decreasing
                    to 1800 knot-ft late in the night.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........20     32     21     29     18     56
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............68     64     57     54     52     51
RH..............31     35     47     53     59     66
20 ft wind......N 10   N 5    NW 5   SW 5   SW 5   SW 5
20 ft wind gust.13     9      6      7      9      9
Mix hgt (ft)....7200   700    400    400    300    300
Mixing wind.....N 15   N 10   NW 10  W 5    SW 10  SW 10
Vrate kt-ft/1K..88     6      3      2      2      3

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. West winds around 10 mph shifting to
                    the northwest early in the morning, then
                    increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......9500 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 10 to 15 mph increasing to around 30
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....3600 knot-ft early in the morning increasing to
                    89800 knot-ft in the afternoon increasing to
                    (160900 knot-ft) in the afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........24        27        30        30
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............50        57        64        67
RH..............76        62        43        31
20 FT wind......W 10G13   N 15G20   N 20G25   NW 25G29
Mix hgt (ft)....400       1800      7000      9400
Mixing wind.....NW 10     NW 15     NW 25     NW 30
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4         27        162       245

$$
Forecaster...CJ
Requested by...Eric Hoff
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413506.0/FGF
.DELDT 05/09/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL ehoff@tnc.org