


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
845 FXHW60 PHFO 270849 CCA AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Honolulu HI 1049 PM HST Thu Jun 26 2025 .UPDATE... Updated forecast to issue Small Craft Advisory for typical windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island. .SYNOPSIS... The forecast will trend drier for the rest of this week as ridging builds into the region. Occasional pockets of moisture embedded within the trades will continue to produce mainly windward and mauka showers for the next several days. Trade wind speeds could decrease even further early next week as an overall drier trade wind pattern continues. && .DISCUSSION... This afternoon, surface high pressure centered far northeast of the main Hawaiian Islands continues to drive locally breezy easterly trade winds across the state. Ridging in the wake of an exiting weak disturbance aloft is resulting in drier conditions today than those experienced the past couple of days, though a weak upper jet is steering a thin layer of cirrus across the eastern half of the state. Afternoon satellite and radar imagery shows very few showers across the state, and rain gauge networks show that most locations have received very little or no rainfall since this morning. Observed 00z soundings at Hilo and Lihue show strong inversions between roughly 6,500 and 7,500 feet, with ample dry air aloft. Low cloud cover is also confined mostly to the typical windward and mauka sections of the islands. This is in addition to the afternoon sea-breeze induced increase in cloud and shower coverage over the Kona slopes of the Big Island. Global forecast models remain in good agreement that the surface high far northeast of the state will remain nearly stationary through Saturday as it experiences minor fluctuations in intensity. This will result in moderate to breezy trade winds continuing across the main Hawaiian Islands into the weekend. The overall drier trend will continue as well, though pockets of low- level moisture trapped beneath the inversion will result in occasional windward and mauka showers, particularly during the overnight through early morning hours each day. During the second half of the weekend and into early next week, the surface high to our far northeast will weaken further and move closer to the continental U.S. as a front makes its way across the North Pacific and a new high develops far north- northwest of the state. As this occurs, trades will likely weaken a bit more and veer to become more east-southeasterly through mid-week. Showers are expected to be fairly limited throughout this time, mainly favoring windward and mauka areas during the overnight through early morning hours each day. Guidance remains consistent that the second half of next week could be even drier as a new surface high becomes established to our northeast. && .AVIATION... Beneath a transparent shield of cirrus and patchy mid-level clouds, VFR prevails as breezy trades persist at the surface. Little in the way of upstream moisture suggests MVFR remains patchy in nature and confined to windward and mauka areas, mainly overnight. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low-level lee turb. && .MARINE... Moderate to locally strong trade winds are expected for the next couple of days. Thursday afternoon ASCAT showed 25 knot winds in the Alenuihaha Channel which meets Small Craft Advisory (SCA) thresholds. Local high resolution model guidance is also in agreement with keeping SCA conditions for the next couple of days thus a SCA has been issued for the typical windier waters and channels around Maui and the Big Island through at least 6AM Saturday night. A disturbance passing well north of the area late this weekend into early next week may slightly weaken the trades. The current south swell will continue to gradually fade to background levels through the weekend. Models show another small, long period south swell arriving Sunday into early next week that should boost south shore surf up to near average surf. Surf along east shores will remain rough and choppy for the next several days. Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny through the period. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Vaughan AVIATION...JVC MARINE...Walsh