282
FXUS64 KLUB 171901
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
201 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Upper level analysis shows a positively-tilted trough ejecting out
of the Southern Plains. Behind it, a brief upper-level ridge will
build into our CWA this weekend allowing warm and dry conditions
into our area. Tonight, cool and clear conditions are expected with
light southerly winds. Tomorrow, an embedded shortwave within the
jet maxima will instigate PVA allowing a weak surface low to form in
the northwest portions of our CWA and meander across it into western
Oklahoma. As the weak low becomes more compact, a dryline will form
ahead of it. However, conditions should remain dry due to stable
profiles just above the surface along with BL mixing heights ranging
from 10-15k ft. Therefore, PoPs were lowered to accommodate for
the low instability. As for temps, MOS guidance shows temps
soaring into the mid to upper 90s across the entire cwa.
Additionally, with little cloud cover expected, the environment
will be hot and dry with slightly humid conditions possible in the
Rolling Plains. Heat indices are expected to remain below actual
temps as dewpoints off the Caprock should not exceed 60 degrees.

PND

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Dry and hot conditions about summarizes the long-term forecast
period with our first triple digit day not out of the question.
Upper level ridging will quickly move over the region early this
weekend. Very warm temperatures are expected to build under the
ridge which will work to influence very warm temperatures through
mid-week. At the surface, lee troughing will develop Sunday in
southeastern CO allowing breezy southwest winds to prevail over
the FA. This in addition to clear skies and increased thickness
values will work to boost high temperatures into the mid to upper
90s with some locations topping off in the triple digits Sunday
through Tuesday. The upper level trough over western CONUS is
expected to shift eastward into the South-Central Plains region on
Tuesday. An associated cold front will move southward, slinging
itself through the FA late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Winds will briefly shift out of the north behind the front
allowing temperatures to be slightly cooler in the 80s and 90s.
Moist return flow will develop as early as Wednesday afternoon as
winds veer out of the southeast aiding in increased dewpoint
temperatures. Ensemble guidance hints at our next chance of
rainfall Thursday as the dry- line shifts east across the FA
throughout the day. Best chances of thunderstorm development will
be across portions of the Rolling Plains and far southeastern
Texas Panhandle where the better lift and moisture is expected to
reside. Given the vast amount of uncertainty with the evolution
and timing of this system, have decided to leave NBM mentionable
PoPs for the time being. Otherwise, ridging is expected to build
back into the region by next weekend with guidance suggesting the
return of the warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

VFR is expected for the rest of the TAF period. Winds will swing
around more to the south tonight but speeds will be light.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PND
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...01