349
FXUS64 KLZK 170742
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
242 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Some scattered SHRA/isolated TSRA were lifting north over central to
NRN AR early this Fri morning...with most of the SRN sections
remaining dry. However...SRN sections were seeing a bit more patchy
fog. An unsettled pattern will continue into early Sat.

An upper shortwave to the west this morning will move slowly east
over AR by this Fri evening...with chances for scattered convection
continuing. Morning convection will continue lifting north or
dissipate by shortly after sunrise...with maybe an isolated
SHRA/TSRA or two through midday. Afternoon heating will allow for
more convection to fire under and just downstream of the upper
shortwave axis across portions of central/NRN AR. Then...additional
convection may develop late Fri afternoon/evening due to forcing
from any outflow boundaries resulting from earlier convection. Some
isolated/widely scattered convection will then linger for Sat
morning before the upper shortwave shifts east by Sat afternoon.
Chances for precip then decrease Sat afternoon and especially Sat
night as this system moves further east.

The overall potential for seeing organized SVR TSRA remains
low...but a few isolated SVR storms could develop. The primary
threat with any SVR storm would be damaging downburst winds and some
large hail. Locally heavy rainfall may also result in some isolated
flash flooding. However...widespread heavy rainfall is not expected
at this time.

Temps will be coolest today with potential for convection and cloud
cover...but highs will still warm into the upper 60s to upper 70s.
Some temps nearing 80 could be seen across the far south where
clouds/precip chances will be lowest. Temps tonight will dip down
into the upper 50s to upper 60s. Highs on Sat will be warmer in the
mid 70s to mid 80s due to less clouds and precip. Lows Sat night
will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

The long term fcst wl begin w/ sfc high pressure departing to the
east, and intermittent H500 shortwave ridging set to build over the
Cntrl US, ahead of a deepening longwave trof over the Wrn and Pac-
N/Wrn US. Drier and relatively warmer condns should ensue acrs the
FA to begin the new work week. Local temps in the upper 80s to low
90s wl highlight a majority of the long term PD, as mean Srly sfc
flow is set to extend over the Srn Cntrl US.

Chances for more scattered to widespread rain and storms look to
resume over the FA by early Wed mrng as the aforementioned Wrn US
troughing begins to maneuver acrs the Cont Divide and eject over the
Great Plains. At the sfc, Srn Plains cyclonic flow is progged to
move N/Ewrd thru the Plains, and acrs the Ozark Plateau towards the
Upper Midwest, w/ a trailing cdfrnt bcmg draped over region from N/E
to S/W. Additional rainfall along the frnt looks to be possible
heading into Thurs mrng, before another broad region of sfc high
pressure settles in over the FA towards the weekend.

Rain chances look to become more intermittent near the end of the
long term fcst, as a new region of sfc high pressure briefly moves
acrs the region, and trends temps down towards more normal values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     74  63  81  62 /  50  30  20   0
Camden AR         80  65  84  63 /  30  30  20   0
Harrison AR       72  59  80  60 /  60  20  10   0
Hot Springs AR    78  63  84  63 /  50  40  20   0
Little Rock   AR  79  66  83  65 /  60  50  30   0
Monticello AR     79  66  82  65 /  30  30  30   0
Mount Ida AR      78  62  84  62 /  60  40  20   0
Mountain Home AR  73  61  81  61 /  50  20  10   0
Newport AR        75  64  80  64 /  70  30  30   0
Pine Bluff AR     79  65  82  64 /  40  40  30   0
Russellville AR   76  63  84  62 /  60  30  20   0
Searcy AR         76  63  82  63 /  50  40  30   0
Stuttgart AR      77  66  81  66 /  50  50  30   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....72