658
FXUS64 KLZK 182342
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
642 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

If you have the ability to look at a visible satellite loop, there
is a very distinct mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) in place
over northern Mississippi and western Tennessee early this
afternoon, primarily bringing subsidence to northeast Arkansas and
spreading lift east over northern Alabama and central Tennessee.
Outside of putting some high clouds in place over portions of
east and central Arkansas, this feature won`t play any major role
in Arkansas weather, but it is pretty cool to look at and does
impact short term weather conditions if you plan on traveling
east through tonight. Otherwise fair weather cumulus clouds were
in place over the state with temperatures generally in the lower
80s for south and central Arkansas and in the upper 70s to the
north. Temperatures will continue to rise a few degrees through
this afternoon with most of the state topping out in the lower to
mid 80s. Water vapor satellite imagery showed a compact shortwave
trough over Arkansas moving to the east-southeast with upper level
ridging to our west.

Upper level ridging is expected to amplify over Arkansas tomorrow
before pushing east as a weak upper level disturbance moves over
the Arkansas river valley tomorrow night into Monday morning. This
weak upper level disturbance is not expected to provide enough
lift to cause any precipitation to develop over the state Sunday
night into Monday morning, but may bring some higher level clouds
over the area radiating some heat back to the surface aiding in
keeping overnight lows up in the upper 60s for most locations.
Upper level ridging will build back over the state on Monday and
Monday night as a strong and large upper trough moves over the
western continental United States.

Low level winds will go from light and variable Sunday morning to
southerly by Sunday afternoon and will remain out of the south
throughout the day on Monday. The combination of upper level
ridging and southerly winds will cause Arkansas to heat up over
the next few days with highs topping out in the lower 90s for most
locations. While no threat of hazardous precipitation or storms
is in the forecast, the combination of heat and humidity will lead
to elevated heat stress across Arkansas on Sunday, and moderate
heat stress by Monday afternoon. If you have outdoor plans and can
focus your outdoor time to the morning or early evening hours,
that will help avoid heat sickness for this mid May warm up.

Cavanaugh

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

To begin the period, high pressure will control the weather pattern
as an upper level trough will be located across the Rocky Mountains.
By late Tuesday into Wednesday...surface high pressure will push off
to the east as a low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes
region. This low pressure system will bring a cold front across the
state by Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms possible.
Additional unsettled weather will be possible through at least
Thursday as another shortwave trough moves over the CWA.

It is still too early to mention specific details, but severe
weather chances are possible...although on the lower end as of this
forecast package. A big question regarding the severe weather
chances with the system on Wednesday will be what time of day the
storms move into the CWA.

Temperatures are expected to be on the warmer side through much of
the period. High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 80s to
lower 90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Higher humidity will likely make temperatures feel slightly
warmer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR conds are expected this evening with skies becoming mostly
clear. Some MVFR fog will be possible overnight over mainly Cntrl
and Nrn sites where rainfall was observed the last couple of days.
Winds will be nearly calm overnight. On Sun, a few clouds will be
noted, otherwise light E/SE less than 10 kts are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     64  87  66  88 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         64  89  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       61  86  65  87 /   0   0   0  10
Hot Springs AR    64  89  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  67  89  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     66  89  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      63  89  66  90 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  61  87  65  88 /   0   0   0  10
Newport AR        65  88  66  89 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     65  89  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   64  89  67  91 /  10   0   0   0
Searcy AR         64  88  65  90 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      67  88  69  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...70