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000
FXUS65 KPSR 162313
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
413 PM MST Tue Apr 16 2024

.UPDATE...Updated 00z Aviation Discussion...

&&


.SYNOPSIS...
Benign weather with dry conditions and above normal temperatures
are expected through the next seven day. High temperatures will
run 10-15 degrees above normal through the next week with daily
highs in the nineties and potential first 100 degree highs by
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The weather forecast for the next week plus is pretty benign, with
no precip, mostly sunny skies, and at least one breezy day.
Otherwise, the main sensible impact will be daily above normal
temperatures leading to widespread Minor HeatRisk. Synoptically
the 500mb height pattern through the next week is forecast to be
fairly low amplitude, with a few low amplitude troughs and ridges.
A weak positively tilted trough is currently seen on WV satellite
over the region, but heights have risen and the thermodynamic
profile has warmed considerably over the past 24 hours. This will
result in afternoon high temperatures today ~10 degrees warmer
than yesterday, with lower desert highs reaching the upper 80s.

Over the next couple of days the weak trough will push east and be
replaced by a shortwave ridge from the Pacific. A deep low
pressure system over the US-Canada border will keep this ridge
from becoming more amplified and thus likely keep temperatures
from reaching 100F this week. Still, temperatures will continue
to warm through the end of the week, with lower desert highs
pushing into the low to mid 90s beginning Wednesday. A transient
low amplitude trough should push across the region Friday-Saturday
and lead to some breezy conditions, with widespread afternoon wind
gusts up to 20-30 mph across the region. Sundowner winds in
Imperial County may gust higher in the evening, above 30 mph.
Following this trough a longer wave ridge should develop across
the western US late this weekend into next weekend. This ridge
will likely be more amplified than the shortwave ridge this week.
As a result, the first 100F days may be within reach. Latest NBM
forecast highs for Sunday-Monday are in the upper-90s to 100F. NBM
probabilities of 100+ F are currently upwards of around 20-40% in
South-Central AZ and Southeast CA both days. In addition to the
afternoon highs warming up, the lows will also be warming up, with
potential for the first 70F low in Phoenix next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 2310Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns under mostly clear skies are expected
through the TAF period. Winds will continue to exhibit the typical
diurnal tendencies with speeds generally remaining under 10 kts.
Extended periods of nearly calm and variable winds are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather conditions will persist through the next week.
Increasing high pressure over the region will yield above normal
temperatures starting today. Daily highs will rise into the low to
mid 90s each day across the lower deserts starting Wednesday and
continuing through the remainder of this week. Min RHs each day will
be in the 5-15% range, while overnight Max RHs will be in the 20-40%
range for most areas. Light, diurnal winds will be favored with
typical afternoon breezes gusting upwards of 20-25 mph at times.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Benedict
AVIATION...Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Smith