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000
FXUS61 KRLX 210527
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
127 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry this weekend, then slowly warming through Tuesday
ahead of another cold front that brings wet weather back to the
area Tuesday night. Frost is possible Sunday and Monday mornings.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1015 PM Saturday...

Forecast on track, with temperatures falling beneath a mostly
thin veil of cirrus overspreading the area. Patchy stratocumulus
was also beginning to show up in northern WV.

As of 750 PM Saturday...

Temperatures, Frost Advisory and special weather statement look
good as placed, as increasing clouds should inhibit frost
formation late south.

As of 300 PM Saturday...

Key Messages:
* High pressure provides cool and dry weather.
* Frost late tonight into early Sunday morning for some locations.

Building high pressure will continue to bring dry weather
through tonight and Sunday across the region. This has
translated into a mainly clear afternoon across the region,
with just a bit of fair weather Cu across the far north. High
temperatures will top out in the low to mid 60s across the
lowlands. A rather tight pressure gradient and deep mixed layer
has resulted in gusty WNW winds across the area this afternoon,
with gusts of 20-35 MPH at times, along with low RH values in
the mid 20s to mid 30s. Given recent rainfall and after
collaborating with neighbors, the need for an SPS in terms of
fire danger was opted against.

Flow will relax late this evening into tonight, allowing for a
chilly night ahead. While there will be some SCT/BKN cirrus
moving in late tonight, low dew points across the area courtesy
of afternoon mixing and light SFC-H850 flow will result in
favorable radiational cooling, with low temperatures progged in
the 30s for the lowlands, with upper 20s for portions of the
mountains. Given such, did issue a Frost Advisory from 2-8 AM
Sunday morning across the northern lowlands where confidence is
highest in frost potential, with an SPS for zones a bit further
south where patchy frost is possible in the typical valley cold
spots. There could be a bit of steam fog across some of the
deeper river valleys overnight.

Sunday will feature BKN-OVC mid/upper level clouds across much
of the area, with some clearing later in the day working in from
the northwest. CAA results in high temperatures in the mid 50s
for the lowlands, with 40s to low 50s for the mountains.
Afternoon RH will once again be on the low side (upper 20s to
low 30s), but amid lighter flow than today, with breezes of
10-20 MPH possible at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Saturday...

Key Messages:
* Quiet start to the work week.
* Widespread frost possible early Monday morning.

Dry weather is expected for Sunday night as high pressure
builds in from the southwest. With low temperatures projected
to dip into the upper 20s to mid 30s late Sunday night into
early Monday morning, widespread frost and patchy freeze will
be a concern for much of the area in which the growing season
has begun.

High pressure continues to build into the area on Monday, with
dry conditions likely allowing RH to fall into the 20-40% range
during the afternoon. Quiet weather then persists into Monday
night as high pressure starts sliding east in advance of the
next system. Temperatures should remain cooler than normal
during the day, with highs reaching 60s in the lowlands and
upper 40s to low 60s along the mountains. Monday night is
expected to be a few degrees warmer than the night before,
though some patchy frost is a possibility towards daybreak
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 PM Saturday...

Key Messages:
* Cold front brings showers and a few storms Tuesday into Wednesday.
* Drier Wednesday night into Friday.
* Another system approaches late week into next weekend.

A low pressure system centered over the Great Lakes region pivots
east along the Canada/US border and ushers a cold front towards the
area on Tuesday. After a fairly quiet morning, precipitation chances
spread southeast across the area in response to the approaching
front. The best chance for showers is expected to occur as the
front crosses overnight into Wednesday morning. A thunderstorm
or two isn`t out of the question, though the late timing of the
front could aid in limiting storm potential.

While scattered, light showers may linger into Wednesday
afternoon, the bulk of activity is expected to diminish once the
front departs to the east during the morning. Given the drier
antecedent conditions and QPF amounts projected to remain under
an inch, flooding is not currently anticipated.

High pressure builds Wednesday night into Thursday and brings drier
weather until late in the work week. Chances for both showers and
thunderstorms then return late week into next weekend as a low
tracks from the Central Plains towards the Great Lakes and lifts a
warm front across the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 125 AM Sunday...

Widespread VFR conditions under light northwest flow will prevail
through the period. Upper level cirrus associated a passing
disturbance across the south, will persist into the morning
hours. Breezes during the peak afternoon mixing hours could
bring wind gusts up to 19 knots, rapidly subsiding by 00Z
Monday.

Skies should clear this afternoon into tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SUN 04/21/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
Widespread IFR conditions are not expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for WVZ007>011-
     016>020-027>032-039-040.
OH...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>086.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JLB/GW
NEAR TERM...TRM/GW
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ARJ