Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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107 FXUS63 KUNR 101723 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1123 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer and mainly dry today. - Chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon - Chances for showers and thunderstorms nearly every day next week. && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Thursday) Issued at 152 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 08Z analysis shows an upper trough extending from the Great Lakes region to an upper low over the Four Corners region that is being cut off from the flow aloft. An upper ridge is in place over the Pacific Northwest and BC/Alberta in western Canada. An upper trough is moving southeastward from Manitoba into western Ontario/Minnesota, creating northwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area. With the upper ridge to the northwest of the forecast area, warming temperatures are expected today through Monday. Mainly dry weather is expected today, however cannot rule out a couple of afternoon showers in the convergence zone over and near the southern Black Hills this afternoon. The Four Corners upper low will shift eastward into the central plains on Sunday and a weak disturbance in the northwest flow aloft will enhance lift, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms, beginning on Sunday afternoon. With low CAPE/shear on Sunday, severe threat looks low. On Monday, a stronger shortwave trough will swing into the northern plains from the Canadian prairie provinces, bringing better chances for showers/storms. WAA ahead of this trough will lead to increased instability/buoyancy, and with slightly better shear, a few strong to severe storms are possible Monday afternoon and evening. Deterministic models show the trough lingering over the central US through the middle of next week, resulting in chances for showers/storms nearly every day next week, along with cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Saturday) Issued At 1121 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 A few SCT050 clouds will be located across the forecast area through 01Z before dissipating. Otherwise VFR conds are on tap through the valid forecast period. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...10 AVIATION...Hintz