Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 032333
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
533 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COOL FRONT SOUTH OF THE
REGION NOW...ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS...WITH LONG
WAVE TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR ACROSS SOUTHERN WY AND NORTHERN CO. SKIES ARE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY...BUT STILL HAVING A HARD
TIME GETTING OFF THE MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

GENERAL UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
A WESTERN CONUS TROF REMAINS IN PLACE AND SENDS DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST OF THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THE MAIN DYNAMICS
WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN WY...SOUTHEAST MT...AND
INTO NORTHWEST SD LATE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BE
OVER NORTHEAST WY INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SD OVERNIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME AND INTO THE EVENING
WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST WY...WHERE A TORNADO WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER CONCERN IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IF SUPERCELLS
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAMPBELL COUNTY WY AREA...WHERE
MOTION IS PROJECTED TO BE VERY SLOW. WEAKER ENERGY ALOFT WILL
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND STRONGER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CWA TONIGHT...BRINGING AN EXPECTED MCS ACROSS NEB OVERNIGHT AS
ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF CO AND WY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR POTENTIAL STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS OVER AT LEAST NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD IF THERE
IS ENOUGH HEATING DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

UPPER LOW EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN US BY THE END OF THE WEEK
LEAVING SPLIT FLOW WITH ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM. LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS MT INTO WY/SD THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVE/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH.
SYSTEM WEAKENS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DIMINISHING TSRA CHANCES AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THIS EVE JUST NORTHEAST OF BLACK HILLS. SHRA/TSRA
WILL DEVELOP OVER NERN WY BY EARLY EVENING...THEN SPREAD THROUGH
WRN SD AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVIER PCPN. RATHER WDSPRD MFVR/IFR STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MRNG
BEFORE DISSIPATING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...JOHNSON



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