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FXAK67 PAJK 262318
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
318 PM AKDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...Over the next 24hrs flow across the region will
change due to a trough of low pressure moving into the area from
the East. The surface trough looks to be oriented E-W over the
central panhandle with N-NELY offshore flow over the northern
panhandle and W-NWLY onshore flow over the south. This along with
an upper level low over the southern panhandle will cause
scattered showers to remain in the forecast for the southern third
of the region through tomorrow. Meanwhile the northern portions
will likely have more sunny breaks/partly cloudy skies.

East moving systems tend to be poorly analyzed by models and
difficult to forecast clouds/pops. Many time it means more of each
than offshore flow usually favors. This will certainly be the case
along the Coast Mountains and over the southern panhandle...but
confidence for the central areas including Juneau is slightly
lower.

North winds will increase slightly overnight over the northern
panhandle due to the trough developing to the south and high
pressure to the north. Overall winds will be 15kt or less with no
advisories.

.LONG TERM...First half of the long range period continues to
feature a prominent upper ridge over the western gulf and western
alaska with two upper level lows pinching the ridge off over the
gulf over the weekend. The low on the east side will be dropping
south out of the yukon and eventually stall over the southern
panhandle this weekend before weakening and moving east early next
week. The west most low over the Aleutian Islands will mostly stay
in place over the weekend but then find its way into the gulf by
mid next week. Where exactly this low will be is up for debate as
current solutions are spread from 40n 140w to the eastern
Aleutians.

At the surface, the weekend forecast has not changed that much.
Still looking for a mostly dry forecast for the northern panhandle
due to offshore flow with wetter weather farther south under the
stalled upper low. Embedded in the offshore flow will be several
weak disturbances that will try to bring showers over the coast
mountains and into the northern panhandle. At the moment, it
appears that the offshore flow and downsloping will be enough to
keep the showers at bay but clouds will still linger so kept
mostly cloudy skies through most of the weekend. Winds will remain
low. The highest expected winds will be with sea breeze
circulations.

Into next week model spread on where the upper low from the
Aleutians will go makes the forecast tricky and low confidence.
Current scenarios range from the Ecmwf (Brings a low up thorough
the central gulf on tue then curves it back to Kodiak. A front
then impacts the panhandle tue night.) to the Gem (Low stays in
the SW gulf and the associated front stays offshore of the
panhandle.). Extended forecast mainly kept as chance pops with
mostly cloudy skies as a result using the WPC data.


&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&

$$

Ferrin/EAL

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