Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
200
FXUS61 KAKQ 110241
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
941 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AND PUSHES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS A BIT BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND SFC OBS. UP TO A DUSTING IS PSBL OVER SOME PORTIONS OF
THE LWR ERN SHORE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS OVER MOST
LOCATIONS THERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE FA LT THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN
OFF THE CST OVRNGT. SCT-BKN CLDNS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH...ALG
W/ PSBL ISOLD SNSH OR FLURRIES (ESP NRN HALF AND ON THE LWR MD ERN
SHORE). OTRW...MNLY SUNNY SE...PARTLY SUNNY ELSW W/ SEASONABLY
COLD THUS FAR THIS AFTN. A BIT A GUSTY WSW AT TIMES ADDING A BIT
OF A CHILL. TEMPS RANGING FM THE U30S-M40S.

PARTLY CLOUDY-VRB CLDS THROUGH EARLY TNGT...THEN CLEARING
THEREAFTER (LINGER SNSH/FLURRIES INVOF PORTIONS OF ERN SHORE UNTIL
AFT MDNGT). LO TEMPS IN THE UPR TEENS ACRS THE CNTRL VA PIEDMONT
WHERE SKY CLRS EARLIER TO M20S ALONG THE COAST AND ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPR LVL TROUGH ALIGNED ALG THE ERN SEABOARD ON THU. DRY/COLD
DP LYRD WNW FLO AS CONDS AVG SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HI TEMPS A TOUCH
LWR THAN TDA...RANGING FM THE L-M30S N TO THE M-U30S S.

SFC HI PRES OVR THE RGN THU NGT INTO FRI...AS ADDITIONAL UPR LVL
ENERGY DIGS OVR THE MIDWEST INTO THE GULF STATES. MDLS CONT TO
INSIST ON DEVELOPMENT OF WK SFC LO PRES INVOF SE CONUS CST FRI
MRNG...WHICH TRACKS E OUT TO SEA FRI AFTN/NGT. 12Z/10 ECMWF RMNS
THE MDL THAT KEEPS MOISTURE W/ THAT SYS S OF THE FA. WILL CONT TO
BLEND THE NAM/GFS AND CURRENT FCST...WHICH HAS A PD OF -SN PSBL
ACRS FAR SRN AND SE PORTIONS OF VA AND ACRS NE NC (STARTING BTWN
15-18Z/12). MDL SOUNDINGS QUITE DRY BLO 5KFT AND XPCG SNOW RATIOS
UPWARDS OF 15:1. QPF ATTM AOB .10" ON AVG. SOME SCT -SN PSBL ELSW
AS TROUGH ALOFT SHARPENS INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. POPS WILL RANGE
FM 40-60% SE...TO 15-25% ELSW. SN ACCUMS RIGHT NOW AN FCST TO BE
AN IN OR LESS. DUE TO CLOUDS AND A COLD START...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY
IN THE L-M30S MOST PLACES.

VRB CLDS/PSBL ISOLD -SNSH FRI EVE...THEN STRONG CDFNT TO CROSS THE
FA LT FRI NGT/SAT MRNG...USHERING IN ADDITIONAL ARCTIC AIR. PTNTL
FOR BAY/OCN INDUCED SNSH...OTRW SKC-PARTLY CLOUDY SAT W/ GUSTY NW
WNDS (TO 25-30 MPH). HI TEMPS FM THE U20S NW TO 30-35F ELSW (WIND
CHILLS AVGG IN THE TEENS TO L20S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG CAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO AROUND -20 TO -
22C ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO FAR
THIS WINTER...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-
16 WINTER LOCALLY BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE MID-FEBRUARY AND
THE 8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS WE
MOVE INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE MONTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MID TEENS SE. A NW
WIND (STRONGEST E) WILL DROP WIND CHILLS BELOW 0F FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA AND BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 20S NE...TO MID/UPPER 20S
ELSEWHERE UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...ALTHOUGH BAY STREAMERS ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...A TROUGH DOES DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE COLD AIR WILL SHALLOW AND RETREAT DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY BE STUBBORN TO RETREAT TOO FAST. THE AMOUNT
OF WINTRY PCPN WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK...WITH THE 10/12Z
GFS/CMC SHOWING A COLDER MORE SRN AND OFFSHORE TRACK...WITH TH3
10/12Z ECMWF DEPICTING AN INLAND AND WARMER TRACK. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY. ARCTIC SPREADS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.

CEILINGS OF AROUND 6 TO 8K FT ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. RADAR RETURNS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CLOUDS BUT LOW DEW
POINTS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL OF ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND. A
FEW FLURRIES COULD RESULT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SBY AREA. GUSTY WEST
WINDS MAY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20 AND 24 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ORF/ECG AREA LATE FRIDAY. DRY
WEATHER WITH GUSTY NW WINDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
RAIN OR SNOW MONDAY AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH MODEST CAA. THIS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN WNW FLOW OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE MARINE AREA WITH 15-20KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25KT OVER THE RIVERS. SEAS GENERALLY AVERAGE 4-5FT WITH 3-4FT
WAVES IN THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD BRING SOME REDUCED VSBY IN SN FOR THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE COAST SATURDAY...WITH
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG
CAA IS EXPECTED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BAY AND
OCEAN. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL.
SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED AS TIDAL
ANOMAILES CONTINUE TO FALL IN WESTERLY FLOW. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
WNW TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW ANOMALIES TO FURTHER FALL. STRONG
NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE BLOW-
OUT TIDES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAS
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.