Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070155
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
955 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END LATER
TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. ON
TUESDAY...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE DAY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NUMERICAL MODEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A REMNANT MID/UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NE OVER WRN PA/NRN
WV...WITH SSW FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AT
THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE PA THROUGH ERN MD AND INTO
ERN VA. THIS HAS BEEN A FOCAL POINT FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
THE EVENING. AS OF 0945 PM...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOCALLY IS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
TIDEWATER. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS
OF 70-75 F AND SATELLITE DERIVED PW VALUES ~1.8 IN. HENCE..LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AGAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. SOME VERY LOCALIZED
MODESTLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS BUT NO
SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY
LOW...LESS THAN 20 KT. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NW
TO THE LOWER 70S MOST OTHER AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND LARGELY A RESULT OF WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO BE DRIER TUE...AS A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND ALLOWS THE UPPER
LOW OVER OHIO/WV TO WEAKEN/BECOME ENGULFED INTO THE STRONGER MEAN
FLOW. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG/OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC
COAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SSW. ALONG WITH RISING 850
MB TEMPS AND INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE...EXPECT MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS
(FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO THE VERY MOIST
ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE
80S. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP IN THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES...EVEN THOUGH FORCING IS WEAK. WARM/HUMID TUE
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN LOWER TO MID 70S. WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE
INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING
W/ HEATING COULD RESULT IN LATE DAY STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE
NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE 20% POPS SOUTH TO 40% NORTH IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F FAR N...TO THE
LOWER-MID 90S ELSEWHERE (LOCALLY 85-90 F AT THE BEACHES). HEAT
INDICES NEAR 100 F.  MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
OVERNIGHT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS INTO
EARLY AM HRS THU THERE. LOWS 70-75 F. CONTINUED HOT THU...HIGHS
AGAIN 90-95 F (THOUGH AGAIN WILL STAY ON COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGH TEMPS).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30%
EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS CONT TO PLAGUE MOSTLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS A SFC TROF SLOWLY MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT
THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY END AROUND MIDNIGHT AS
THE TROF ROTATES MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. TAF SITES THAT CAN STILL
BE AFFECTED INCLUDE PHF AND ORF WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KT. BRIEF IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE PSBL WITH THESE STORMS.

PATTERN SHOWS SFC HIGH PRES AND RIDGING ALOFT MOVG INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HOPEFULLY GIVE SOME RELIEF FROM THE STORMS
FOR TUE BUT IT WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HOWEVER
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH DECREASING CHC OF CONVECTION TUE
AFTN/EVENING.

A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR WED WITH ISOLATED LATE
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THRU THE COMING WEEKEND AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-4 FT.
WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JEF/JAO
MARINE...JDM/TMG



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