Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 180030
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
730 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the northwest later tonight, and pushes
off the Mid Atlantic coast Wednesday morning. High pressure
then builds in from the west by Wednesday night and settles over
the area on Thursday. The high slides off the coast Thursday
night as another front moves in by Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Latest analysis shows ~1007 mb sfc low pressure over Lake Erie,
with strong high pressure centered over eastern Canada, ridging
S into Maine. Sfc warm front is rather diffuse but will continue
to lift through the region. Radar showing scattered showers over
the CWA and QPF amounts have been rather light. SSW flow has
allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 50s/around 60 F
except for the eastern shore where some upper 40s/lower 50s
prevail.

After perhaps a few hrs of a lull early, POPS ramp back up this
evening as the cold front approaches the region from the NW.
Best lift and moisture convergence looks to reside over the
eastern shore early this evening, then down into southeast VA
and northeast NC by late evening/overnight. Will carry 30-50%
POPS well inland, with likely POPS/60% closer to the coast,
becoming confined to southeast VA and northeast NC overnight. Cold
Front passes through around daybreak Wed...and with deeper
mixing and WNW flow in low levels...should see skies turn partly
to mostly sunny along with a warm day with highs at least in
the lower 60s. However, over the east and NE, with a strong
shortwave aloft tracking through ern/SE VA from 12-18Z, expect
some redeveloping clouds from 15-21Z and will maintain at least
20-30% POPS (likely POPS early on over far se VA and ne NC).
Temps may fall a few degrees in the aftn over the N.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry/mostly clear Wed night and Thu as sfc high pressure settles
over the area. Lows Wed night in the mid/upr 30s inland to the
lwr 40s far SE. Highs in the 50s Thu. Next system approaches
from the W/SW Thu night/Fri, the latest ECMWF being a little
slower/weaker than the GFS. Still looks like enough of a good
overrunning scenario to maintain likely POPS all areas for Fri.
Undercut MOS by a few degrees with highs to avg in the upper 40s
NW to lower-mid 50s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Above normal temps will continue to dominate the extended period
acrs the area. A warm front and associated low pressure will
lift NE or E of the area Fri night, with weak high pressure
building over the region for Sat into Sat evening. Showers will
be exiting NE or E of the CWA Fri night, with dry wx for Sat.

Sun into early Tue, strong upper low pressure will lift fm the
srn Plains/lower MS valley northeast into ern OH/wrn PA. This
will result in waves of moisture/strong lift up into the region
during this period. So, have gone with likely POPs everywhere,
esply Sun aftn into Mon evening. Pcpn chances decrease fm SSW to
NNE Mon night into Tue morning, as low pressure moves away to
the NNE. Dry wx should return for Tue aftn/evening.

Max temps will range fm the lower 50s to the lower 60s, with
lows in the lower 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tricky forecast tonight, have seen conditions improve to mainly
VFR this evening, but am expecting conditions to deteriorate
later tonight and into Wednesday morning as a cold front
approaches the area. The highest precipitation potential with
the front will remain across southern and coastal portions of
the area. Ceilings will vary from MVFR to IFR late tonight and
Wednesday morning before improving back to VFR after 12Z
Wednesday. Model guidance also continues to hint at a dense fog
potential. Believe that increasing SW winds ahead of the front
should keep the dense fog potential limited, but did bring
visibilities down to 2SM. Winds shift to the NW and remain
breezy behind the frontal passage.

Outlook: High pressure builds over the area behind the cold
front allowing for a brief return to VFR conditions Wednesday
night and into Thursday. MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible
late Thursday and into Friday as the next low pressure system
approaches the region. Dry weather returns for Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines in the short term tngt thru Thu. Warm front will
lift well north of the area tngt, as a cold front pushes into
and acrs the waters Wed morning. Southwest winds 5 to 15 kt this
evening thru late tngt, will become west then northwest Wed
morning into early Wed aftn. Waves 1 to 2 ft and seas 2 to 3 ft.
High pressure will build into and over the waters for Wed night
thru Thu, with NW or N winds 5 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft and
seas 2 to 4 ft.

The high slides into the Atlc late Thu night into Fri morning,
with a warm front lifting into and acrs the waters Fri into Fri
night. Winds will be SE or S 10 kt or less. A coastal low
pushes well out to sea on Sat, with weak high pressure building
in behind it during the day. Winds will be N then NE or E 10 kt
or less during Sat.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...TMG


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