Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 132033
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
333 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of low pressure systems will pass to the north of the area
tonight through Friday.  Low pressure develops along the southeast
coast Friday, then tracks northeast while staying offshore Friday
night. High pressure returns Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
Clipper low progged to track along the Mason-Dixon line tonight.
Local area remains south of this track with little if any moisture
to work with. Kept slght chc flurries across the lwr Md ern shore
btwn 03Z-07Z as the high res data does show at least some lift
there as systm tracks off to the east, otw dry. Partly to mostly
cldy this evening with decreasing clouds after midnite. Lows in
the mid 20s-lwr 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure results in dry conditions Thurs with moderating temps.
Highs in the mid 40s-lwr 50s. Cold again Thu nite with low in the
20s to lwr 30s SE.

Models continue to show a flatter northern stream systm Fri tracking
north of the local area with any lift to produce QPF staying to the
north.  Meanwhile, moisture gathers ivof of a trof along the sern
coast. Local area in btwn systms so kept Fri dry but mostly cldy.
Highs from the upr 30s NW to near 50 SE.

NAM dry Fri night but the GFS is showing a bit of phasing as low
pressure tracks NE across the VACAPES. GFS even throws some moisture
back towards the ern shore during the evening hours. Will carry
slght chc snow shwr ivof OXB Fri evening. Otw, dry. Lows in the 20s
except lwr 30s SE.

Highs pressure builds across the srn states Sat / Sat nite. Dry and
milder. Highs in the low-mid 40s. Lows Sat nite mid 20s-mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Model timing and moisture differences make for a low confidence
forecast early next week (due to a split flow). The one factor that
does seem to be in agreement is that temps remain warm enuf across
the local area for any pcpn to fall as liquid.

A warm front is progged to lift north of the area Sunday with svrl
srn stream s/w`s progged to lift NE from the deep south thru Tue.
Slght chc pops across the piedmont Sun aftrn. Highs in the upr 40s-
mid 50s.

ECMWF/Canadian have wetter solutions but with timing differences
while the GFS is drier and keeps the deep moisture south of the
local area until late Tue. Thus, keeping some continuity with the
current forecast results in keeping chc pops Sun night into Tue for
now. (All liquid pcpn with no higher than 40 pop). Dry Wed.

Lows Sun nite in the upr 30s NW to mid 40s SE. Highs Mon/Tue in
the 50s. Lows in the mid 30s NW to lwr 40s SE. Highs Wed in the
upr 40s-lwr 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Mid and
high level cloud deck will overspread the area this evening as
low pressure moves north of the area. WNW winds btwn 15-25 kts
diminish before sunset ahead of this system, then increase back
up again later tonight and Thurs behind it.

Outlook:
VFR conditions continue into Fri as high pressure dominates. Low
pressure off the coast may result in a few snow shwrs/flurries
at SBY Fri eve. Highs pressure returns over the weekend..

&&

.MARINE...
Winds are slowly beginning to fall this afternoon as the strong low
over Eastern Canada begins to pull NE away from the waters.  The
pressure gradient should continue to relax this evening for a brief
period of time, through about midnight, as high pressure slides just
south of the waters.  However, the next quick moving storm system,
now over the Southern Great Lakes continues to push eastward.  This
will quickly turn the winds back out of the S to SW overnight with
speeds increasing back to 20 to 25 kt, perhaps as high as 30 kt over
the coastal waters.  The cold front will race off the coast by 12z
Thursday with a brief surge behind the front lingering through the
afternoon hours.  For now, have gone with SCA conditions for all
areas through the afternoon hours on Thursday, except for the rivers
which should see 10 to 15 kt winds overnight.  There could be some
gust on the waters up to 35 kt, but not enough to warrant a Gale,
especially with the SW flow.

Once this system exits on Thursday afternoon, high pressure will
then build into the region, although it is a weak area so some light
westerly flow will continue but will be below SCA level.  On Friday,
the region will be between a front to the south and another northern
stream low pressure system.  Winds will be generally light with some
NE flow gradually turning to the SW and then NW by Friday night.  A
reinforcing cold front will cross the area on Saturday and with the
flow increasing with the cold advection.  This could lead to more
SCA conditions.  High pressure returns on Sunday with the flow
turning back to the SW and with moisture on the increase some rain
is possible Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Potential exists for some low water issues during Thurs tide cycles
given the gusty offshore flow (W-SW).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for ANZ630>634-
     650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...ESS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



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