Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 060025
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
825 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND DROP ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
RAINFALL RATES HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...LIKELY DUE TO LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING WHICH SUPPORTED ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY ALOFT.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 100 PERCENT ACROSS SRN HALF OF CWA (SCNTRL
VA AND NE NC) AND THEN CONTINUED THIS TREND AS MAIN SWATH OF
PRECIP PIVOTS N-NE WITH ROTATION OF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD.
ADJUSTED 6HR QPF AMOUNTS AS WELL TO REFLECT THE POP CHANGES...WITH
TOTALS AVERAGING 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES IN AREAS OF LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS. HAVE ALSO ADDED FOG INTO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING DUE TO A FULLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT PRESENT WITH
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS ANTICIPATED. VISIBILITIES
SHOULD RANGE FROM 2-5 MILES IN AREAS OF FOG...HOWEVER WENT WITH
THE WORST CASE SCENARIO OF 2 MILES IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO 4 MILES DURING FRI MORNING. REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMP/DEWPOINT/RH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATE THIS AFTN...UPR AIR LO PRES WAS DROPPING INTO WRN NC...WITH
SFC LO PRES JUST OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NC. LATEST RADAR SHOWED
AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS COVERING MUCH OF SCNTRL AND
INTERIOR SE VA AND INTERIOR NE NC. HEAVIER SHOWERS IN PORTIONS OF
SCNTRL VA HAVE PRODUCED .50 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR. THE UPR LO
WILL MOVE ACROSS NC THRU EARLY TONIGHT...THEN LIFT NE TO THE SE
VA CST BY 12Z FRI. WHILE...THE SFC LO WILL LIFT NNE OFF THE NC AND
VA CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS MOVNG
ENE AND OVR THE REMAINDER OF CNTRL/ERN VA...NE NC AND THE LWR MD
ERN SHORE LATE THIS EVENG INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. SHOWERS COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC INTO FRI MORNG. WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE HEAVY RAINS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR FLOODING WITH SPECIAL WX STATEMENTS OR FLOOD ADVISORIES THIS
EVENG INTO FRI MORNG. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPR LO WILL MOVE NWD ALONG THE DELMARVA CST AND INTO SRN NEW
JERSEY DURING FRI...BEFORE LIFTING NNW INTO ERN PA BY 12Z SAT.
CLOUDY INTO EARLY FRI NGT WITH 60-80% POPS ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES THRU EARLY FRI AFTN ALNG AND E OF
INTERSTATE 95. POPS AND RAIN AMTS/INTENSITY WILL THEN
DECREASE/DIMINISH LATE FRI AFTN INTO FRI NGT FM S TO N...AS THE LO
LIFTS N OF THE AREA AND INTO ESE PA. HIGHS ON FRI WILL RANGE FM
THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS FRI NGT WILL BE IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR
50S.

THE LO AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPR TROF WILL MOVE NE AND E AND OFF THE
CST SAT AFTN. MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS WILL LINGER OVR THE ERN HALF OF
THE REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY OR PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FM THE NW SAT NGT...AND
DROP ACROSS THE AREA ON SUN. THIS FRONT WILL NOT HAVE DEEP LO LVL
MOISTURE WITH IT...SO JUST HAVE SMALL CHC (30%) OR SLGT CHC (20%)
POPS FOR SAT NGT AND SUN. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS SAT
NGT IN THE MID TO UPR 50S. HIGHS ON SUN WILL RANGE FM THE MID 70S
TO NEAR 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR PCPN. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S MOST
AREAS MON AS STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS OFF THE ERN SEABOARD ALLOWING
SLY FLOW T0 DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID ATLC. DRY WX EXPECTED WITH LO
PRES OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. INCLUDED A SLGT CHANCE FOR SOME
OVERRUNNING PCPN MON NGT/TUE WELL AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LO
PRES SYSTM...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE COMING WED (30-40% POPS) AS THE
LO APPROACHES FM THE W. TEMPS TUE AND WED WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPR
70S TO MID 80S UNDER CONTINUED SLY FLOW...WITH MORNG LOWS IN THE
60S. CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES INTO THU (30% POPS) WITH SIMILAR TEMPS
AS TUE/WED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. ON THURSDAY EVENING...LOW
PRESSURE WAS OFF THE VA/NC COAST RESULTING IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS AT THE TAF SITES. AVIATION CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THAT WAY FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
AFTER THAT...A MORE CONSISTENT PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IS FORECAST
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND NOON TO MID AFTN ALTHOUGH SBY IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN IFR THROUGH 00Z.

OUTLOOK...SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE IN THE DAY. MAINLY DRY
AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR LATER SAT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH HEADLINES GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT THROUGH
FRI. CURRENTLY LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VA/NC COAST PROVIDING A
WIDESPREAD 15-25 KT OVER THE BAY AND OCEAN. CONDS ARE MORE MARGINAL
IN THE RIVERS BUT HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND SCA FOR THE LOWER JAMES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. SEAS HAVE RISEN TO 6-8 FT OFFSHORE AND
4-6 FT NEARSHORE.

PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS FRI FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE VA/NC COAST IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH AND BECOME
CENTERED ALONG/JUST OFF THE DELMARVA. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL
LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRI MORNING WHILE LOCATIONS FARTHER
SOUTH WILL DROP OFF TO 10 KT OR LESS. BY AFTN...WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW OVER THE BAY AND WESTERLY OVER THE SRN COASTAL
WATERS...AND THEY WILL DIMINISH OVER NRN COASTAL AREAS CLOSE TO
THE SFC LOW. SEAS WILL BE SLOWEST TO SUBSIDE ACROSS NRN AREAS AND
THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO FRI EVENING THERE. OTHERWISE...SUB-
SCA CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND...LIGHT WINDS
SAT...THOUGH SEAS LIKELY STAY ELEVATED AROUND 4 FT. WINDS TURN SSW
AND AVG 15 KT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO THE
NW ON SUNDAY. STILL NOT MUCH COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SO
GENLY DO NOT EXPECT SCA CONDS TO DEVELOP OR IF THEY DO WOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED ACROSS THE BAY W/ GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NE FLOW TODAY...AND HIGHER SEAS THAN ANTICIPATED HAS LED
TO TIDAL DEPARTURES THAT NOW AVG 1.5 TO 2 FT ACROSS THE LOWER BAY
AND OCEAN LOCATIONS FROM WACHAPREAGUE ON SOUTH (DEPARTURES AVG 1.0
TO 1.5 FT ELSEWHERE). RAISED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR MODERATE
FLOODING FROM NORTHAMPTON CO VA TO VA BEACH AND NC OUTER BANKS FOR
THE UPCOMING EVENING HIGH TIDE. ELSEWHERE...HAVE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES GOING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY/RIVERS AND OCEAN.
THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING/THROUGH FRI MORNING WILL BE
THE HIGHEST AND A FEW LOCATIONS MAY FLIRT WITH OR BRIEFLY PEAK AT
MODERATE FLOODING LEVELS. ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING IS LIKELY FOR
THE NEXT 2 HIGH TIDES...AS DEPARTURES WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO FALL.
HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORIES THROUGH FRI EVENING/EARLY
SAT MORNING TO COVER THIS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     MDZ024-025.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ084>086-
     089-090-093-095>097-522>525.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ098-
     100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     VAZ099.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ075>078.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ632-633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


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