Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161937
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
337 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
STATES TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW YORK THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY.
THE HIGH WILL RIDGE DOWN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
STILL COLD AIR MASS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD FREEZE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOW 30S. HAVE ISSUES A FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS AREA. FARTHER
TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHEAST AND COME OFF THE
WATER. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. ALSO THE NAM AND RUC BOTH INDICATE SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 950 MB TONIGHT WITH THE EAST FLOW
DEVELOPING THERE. NOT SURE HOW MUCH CLOUDS WILL RETURN BUT DID
DEVELOP CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
ON THURSDAY THESE CLOUDS SLOWLY SPREAD TO THE WEST AND NORTH AS
MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BROUGHT IN OFF THE ATLANTIC. ANOTHER
COLL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE
THE LEAST AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE OCEAN INFLUENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ALL AGREE ON TROUGHING DEVELOPING JUST OF THE COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO SOME SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MOVING ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS NOT
WELL HANDLED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO WILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY. HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM BUT WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE
POPS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
MILDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK
INTO THE 60S. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT
PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE COAST. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY
N WINDS BECOME NE THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. WINDS HAVE TENDED TO BE SLIGHTLY BACKED FROM MOS FORECASTS
AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS WHICH COULD GO MVFR DEVELOP OVER SE
SECTIONS THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDS INCREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY BUT THE TREND TOWARD ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...REMAINING GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED INTO SCA
FLAGS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WINDS TURN TO THE
NE AND RESULT IN PERSISTENT SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER. ANOTHER BUT
WEAKER PUSH OF COLD AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY...WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS INTO SCA THRESHOLDS
DURING THIS TIME. IT IS LIKELY THAT SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO SEAS
ABOVE 5 FT WILL CONTINUE BEYOND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE
A FINAL DECISION MADE REGARDING HEADLINES BY THE AFTN FORECAST
PACKAGE (ISSUED BY 4 PM TODAY).

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT INTO FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16:

RIC...45 (1929)
ORF...46 (1935)
SBY...45 (1935)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952)

RECORD LOWS THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>083-085-087>089-092.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD/TMG
CLIMATE...






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