Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 300836
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
436 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure prevails off the Southeast Coast through the
Monday. A frontal boundary along the eastern shore will lift back
north as a warm front today. A cold front pushes across the region
Monday night with high pressure returning Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Note that all 4 climate sites broke record high min temps for
4/29. See cli section below or RER`s.

Latest MSAS showing a dominate bermuda high off the sern coast.
A backdoor cold front along the Mason-Dixon line having a tuff
time movg south attm. High res data beginning to back off on the
amount of convective coverage that develops along this boundary
as it sag south to near a OXB-SBY-NHK line by 12Z. Given no radar
echoes noted as of this writing, will only keep isltd pops across
the lwr md ern shore early this morning. Models then begin to
slowly lift this boundary back north as a warm front today keeping
any convective activity along and north of it as airmass over the
AKQ fa remains capped once again. Partly to mostly sunny and hot.
H85 temps between 14-16C results in readings generally between
85-90 west of the bay. Cooler along the eastern shore given local
sea breezes and wind shifts with the frontal boundary. Highs there
80-85 except remaining in the 70s at the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mostly clr tonight except becoming pt cldy after midnight across the
piedmont. Dry as any pcpn stays well west of the fa thru 12Z. Lows
65-70 except 60-65 eastern shore.

Models continue to slow the eastward movement of the approaching
cold front from the west Monday. Data suggests a dry morning with
pops increasing mainly along and west of the I95 corridor in the
afternoon. Dry along the coast thru 00Z Tue. Temps remain well above
normal with highs 80-85 except remaining in the 70s at the beaches.

The cold front crosses the region Monday night and pushes offshore
by 12z Tuesday. Likely pops taper off to chc from NW-SE from 06-12z
as drier air arrives from the NW. Cooler with lows from the upr 50s
NW to mid 60s SE.

SPC has included the western most AKQ zones in a MRGNL risk late
Monday into Monday nite. Thinking is for isltd severe hail/damaging
winds from storms crossing the mts during the evening hrs. Also
expect some lclly hvy downpours psbl given the juicy airmass as
PW`s apprch 1.5 inches.

Low pressure tracks into ern Canada with high pressure building into
the area Tues and Wed. A secondary (dry) trof moves north of the
area by 12Z Wed. Look for dry and cooler conditions. Highs Tues
75-80, cooler at the beaches. Lows Tue night in the lwr 50s-lwr 60s.
Highs Wed in the mid-upr 70s except upr 60s-lwr 70s at the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A complex system progged toward the end of the week. Low pressure
develops over the deep south Wed then slowly lifts NE along the
Applach mts Thurs and Fri. Latest models show the system getting
cut off from the main flow and lingering across the region thru
Sat. Meanwhile, this system will be able to tap a good amount
of GOM / Atlantic moisture. The associated warm front lifts
north across the area Thurs with chc pops all areas. Enough
moisture for likely pops Thurs nite and Fri with lingering pops
Fri nite into Sat. Most of the pcpn will be convective in nature
resulting in the possibility of another extended period of
rainfall. Stay tuned. Highs both Thu/Fri in the upr 60s NW to
low-mid 70s SE. Lows Thu night mid-upr 50s NW to lwr 60s SE.
Highs Sat mid 60s to lwr 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Backdoor cold front approaching GED as of 09Z and is expected to
push south to near SBY by 12Z. Sct-Bkn SC btwn 2-3K ft is noted
along this feature but still no echoes seen on radar. High res
data has backed off with any convective pcpn so have updated SBY
TAF toward this scenario. Otw, VFR with some patchy MVFR BR
at RIC/SBY by 12Z. Otw, SCT CU with SCT-BKN CI expected thru
the day along with SSW winds 10-20 KTS.

Outlook: MVFR stratus and visbilities will be possible once
again early Monday morning with a moist airmass in place.
Conditions will briefly return to VFR on Monday before a frontal
boundary crosses the region late in the day. This frontal
boundary will bring the potential for showers and thunderstorms
along with sub-VFR conditions. Dry/VFR conditions are expected
through Wednesday with potentially another system impacting the
region Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Broad Bermuda high pres allows for 10-15 kt S/SW flow today, with 1-
2 ft waves over the Bay and 2-3 ft seas over cstl wtrs. Similar
conditions into tonight with seas building to 4 ft. Next cold front
approaches the area Mon, and with a tight pres gradient ahead of the
front, winds increase to 15-25 kt over all wtrs during the day.
Raised headlines over all wtrs, with a gale watch over northern cstl
wtrs and a SCA elsewhere. Gale watch is for 50 percent confidence in
a few hrs of gale gusts, with other areas expected to gust up to 25-
30 kt. Seas build to 6-9 kt over cstl wtrs with 3-4 ft waves over
the Bay. These conditions will last into Mon night until the cold
front crosses the wtrs. Winds/waves/seas decrease into Tue as CAA is
weak behind the front, but seas aoa 5 ft may continue through late
Tue. Sub-sca conditions everywhere by Wed.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flood advisory continues in Mecklenburg county, with VDOT continuing
to report numerous roads closed in the Kerr Dam area, creating ongoing
navigation concerns.

&&

.CLIMATE...
All 4 climate sites broke record high minimum temps for 4/29.
 RIC...73...old record high min was 67 set in 1956
 ORF...76...old record high min was 66 set in 1981
 SBY...70...old record high min was 65 set in 1974
 ECG...73...old record high min was 67 set in 1981


Record high temps for today 4/30:
 RIC...93 in 1974
 ORF...93 in 1888
 SBY...86 in 1974
 ECG...90 in 1974

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ633-635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ630>632-634-656-658.
     Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night for
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MAS
HYDROLOGY...MPR
CLIMATE...MPR



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