Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 172320
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
720 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS...SOME
PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND. ISOLATED SMALL SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BRIEFLY POPPED UP ON RADAR
IN NE NC...BUT DISSIPATE QUICKLY. SKIES AVG PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN NE NC...BUT VISIBLE SAT TRENDS DEPICT SOME ADDED
SUNSHINE BREAKING THROUGH IN THE SE. THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE/VORT LOBE TRACKING THRU NC ATTM. THIS WAVE
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER VORT LOBE TRACKS IN ITS WAKE OVER
SRN VA/NRN NC. HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER LIMITED...WITH
PWATS AOB 1.25 INCHES AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL ALSO LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SE TONIGHT AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...SKIES
REMAIN GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THANKS TO THE WAVE AND REMNANT MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT NORTH
OF RICHMOND AND TO THE MD ERN SHORE.

TRENDED TOWARD WARMER MET GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
CLOUDS/THICKNESSES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S IN THE SE. A FEW RURAL AREAS MAY DROP INTO THE
LOW 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AND MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER ERN CANADA BEGINS TO FILL AND EJECT EWD THURS AS
THE TROUGH AXIS ALIGNS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION THURS AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE MOISTURE
REMAINS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE (PWATS ~1.25 INCHES)...MOIST LOW-LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP...ALBEIT STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE...WILL BE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AND THE MD ERN SHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO FRI...RIDGING SWWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE FRI...BUT THE SRN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG THE SE COAST. THIS REMNANT TROUGH
WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SE
COAST FRI NIGHT-SAT. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN GENERALLY PRECIP FREE
FRI AND SAT...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND FRI
AND ALONG THE COAST SAT...BUT WILL LEAVE SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ATTM...GENERALLY DUE TO RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THRU THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC
SAT NGT. WEAK LO PRES WILL LIFT NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST SAT
NGT INTO MON MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH A MSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS SAT NGT IN THE UPR
50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING A SLGT
CHC OF SHOWERS. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD FM THE LWR GRT LKS EWRD INTO
SRN NEW ENGLAND TUE THRU WED. LOWS WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S SUN
NGT...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S MON NGT...AND RANGE THRU THE
50S INTO THE LWR 60S TUE NGT. HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
MON...AND MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LAST FEW VIS STLT IMAGES
INDICATED CU AND MID LVL CLOUDS ARE SCATTERING OUT EVERYWHERE BY
NE NC /INCLUDING KECG/. HAVE TAKEN OUT IFR FOG AT KSBY...AS LATEST
GUIDANCE LESS BULLISH ON FOG OCCURRING. VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BRING THREAT OF SHOWERS/PSBL TSTMS.
HWVR...TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW
ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT NE FLOW
CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND
OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
6 PM UPDATE...HAVE RAISED SCA FOR LONG PERIOD SWELL ACRS THE SRN 2
COASTAL WATERS ZONES. 44100/44056 HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN AROUND 5
FEET LAST FEW HOURS...AND SHOULD MAINTAIN NEAR SCA SEA HEIGHTS
THROUGH 05Z. ADDED ANZ656 TO SCA AT 7 PM TO BE CONSISTENT WITH SEA
HEIGHT FORECAST...AS WELL AS THE EXPECTATION THAT 5 FOOT SWELL
EXTENDS INTO VA COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CHLV2.

4 PM DISCUSSION...NE OR E WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS THRU
SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA OF HI PRES SLIDING OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST
TNGT...FOLLOWED BY A LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS
EWD AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THU THRU SAT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ARND 15 KT OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD. WAVES WILL BE 1
TO 3 FT AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT TNGT THRU THU NGT. SOME
LONGER PERIOD SWELLS (12-15 SEC) WILL CONTINUE INTO THU...DUE TO
DISTANT TC EDOUARD. A LITTLE STRONGER NE OR E WINDS EXPECTED FRI
AND FRI NGT DUE TO STRONG HI PRES TO THE NNE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WAVES 2 TO 3 FT (POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR 4 FT MOUTH OF THE
BAY)...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 4 TO 5 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...TMG/WRS





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