Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050041
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
841 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL SLOWLY BUILD
SOUTH TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATING BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING THROUGH CHES
BAY...WITH 3 HR PRESSURE RISES OF 1 TO 2 MB ACRS MOST OF THE CWA.
EARLIER TSTMS ACTIVITY HAS NOW SHIFTED TO THE W OR SW OF THE CWA.
A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS ACRS THE PIEDMONT WILL LINGER THROUGH
00-02Z OR SO. ELSEWHERE...SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT IN MANY AREAS E
OF I-95 ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS ALREADY SEEING LOW STRATUS DEVELOP.
APPEARS THERE WILL BE LULL IN PRECIP FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING
INTO THE EARLY AM HRS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
SUNSET IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ALONG AND E OF
I-95 WHERE SKIES CLEAR OUT...BUT DO EXPECT IT TO BE WIDESPREAD.

OVERNIGHT/AFTER 06Z WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS MOVING BACK INTO
THE REGION...ALONG WITH SKIES GRADUALLY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
ALL AREAS ONCE AGAIN AS STRATUS BECOMES WIDESPREAD. ALSO WILL SEE
INCREASING NE WINDS BY 06-09Z...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST AS
PRESSURE RISES CONTINUE WITH ~1025 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND BUILDING SOUTH. LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND
70F INLAND...TO 70-75F AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WX LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED OVR (MOST OF) THE FA THIS WKND AS SFC HI
PRES SLOLY BUILDS SE THROUGH NEW ENG...THEN OFF THE NE CONUS CST
(BY SUN). NE WNDS WILL RMN GUSTY (TO 25-30 MPH) NR THE CST ON SAT
BEFORE WANING INTO SUN. COMPOUNDING THE UNCERTAINTY WRT CLDS AND
PCPN CHCS WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF WK LO PRES INVOF SE CONUS CST.
COOLER...BUT RMNG HUMID THIS WKND AS DRIER AIR FM THE NNE HAS
DIFFICULTY PUSHING TOO FAR S INTO THE FA. BEST SHOT AT THAT WILL
BE OVR NE COUNTIES DURING THE WKND...W/ WK MID LVL DISTURBANCES
CIRCULATE INLAND INVOF SRN/SE VA AND NE NC RESULTING IN VRB CLDS-
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS AND ISOLD-SCT SHRAS (20-40%) BOTH DAYS.

BY MON...GRADUAL EROSION OF THE ONSHORE FLO XPCD...LEADING TO A
BETTER PROB FOR PARTLY CLOUDY/WARMER CONDS. WILL HANG ONTO 20-30%
IN SE VA/NE NC ON MON.

HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M-U70S AT THE CST TO L80S INLAND...THEN FM
THE U70S-L80S SUN...AND L-M80S MON. MOST LO TEMPS FM THE M60S TO
ARND 70F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RATHER DIFFUSE WX PATTERN TO START THE WORK WEEK WITH ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE NRN CONUS AND WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
INTO THE TN VALLEY THUS KEEPING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON THE
FRINGE OF PERIODIC CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY NEAR COASTAL
AREAS OF SE VA/NE NC. FAIRLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS ON TUE FINALLY
GIVE WAY TO MORE S-SW WINDS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF WARM-UP DURING THE MID-WEEK
TIMEFRAME. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TUE-THU AND LOWS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S MON NIGHT-THU NIGHT. LONGWAVE TROUGHING
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE THU/FRI ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES
AREAS AND SHOULD PUSH A MORE WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF THE CWA. ALL TAF
SITES ARE VFR WITH NE-E WINDS AROUND 10KT. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT RESULTING IN COOLER BUT
STILL MOIST NE FLOW. PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND IFR/MVFR STATUS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS ARE 10-15 KT ALL WATERS THIS AFTN AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS
THE NE STATES. WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THE REST OF TODAY AS THE
FRONT NEARS THE WATERS. NE WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AVERAGING 15-20KT AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS. SCA FLAGS FOR ALL WATERS WILL GO INTO EFFECT
THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY BEFORE
CONDITIONS SUBSIDE. NE WINDS DURING SCA FLAGS WILL AVERAGE 15-25KT
WITH UP TO 30KT GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER. WAVES ON CHES BAY WILL BUILD FROM 2-3FT TO 3-4FT THIS
EVENING AND SEAS WILL REACH 4-6 FT (HIGHEST NORTH) BY SAT MORNING.
AGAIN...ALL SCA`S WILL RUN THROUGH THE DAY SAT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
SAT NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE BAY...CURRITUCK SOUND...AND ERN VA
RIVERS SO THAT SCA FLAGS CAN END THROUGHOUT SAT EVENING. STILL
EXPECTING WAVES TO REMAIN AROUND 4FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY INTO
SUN MORNING...WITH SEAS LINGERING AROUND 5 FT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY TO START NEXT WEEK.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH NEARSHORE WAVES WILL ENHANCE
THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERSISTENT NE WINDS OF 15-25KT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL RESULT
IN TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND 0.5 TO 1.0 FT ABOVE NORMAL AND WATER
LEVELS JUST BELOW HAT TO 0.5 FT ABOVE HAT DURING THE SATURDAY
AFTN/EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SEVERAL TIDAL GAUGES ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND IN CHES BAY MAY EITHER FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR
FLOODING OR JUST CREST INTO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS/LEVELS.
COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING...
HOWEVER WOULD LIKE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVERNIGHT AS THE NE WINDS
INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.