Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 171508
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
900 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE IN ALL RESPECTS...
WIND ADVISORY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TONIGHT IN SRN ZONES.  FROPA
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...
ALSO IN SRN ZONES.  RAPID DAY-TO-DAY TEMPERATURE CHANGES THROUGH
NEXT WEDNESDAY.  LATEST FORECAST TIMING HAS OUR CWA MUCH WARMER
TODAY...MUCH COOLER FRIDAY...WARMING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COOLER
MONDAY...MUCH WARMER TUESDAY...THEN MUCH COOLER AND STAYING COOL
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS PACIFIC UPPER LOW COMES INLAND.  BEST
CHANCES OF PCPN WILL COME TONIGHT...THEN MONDAY NIGHT/TUE MORNING
...AND WEDNESDAY.  NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING MAINLY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY WEST OF A KMYL-KREO LINE. THE FRONT WILL BRING
A WIND SHIFT TO KBKE AND KBNO BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. SURFACE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FROM THE SE-SW AT 10-20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS BEHIND IT WILL BE W-NW 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT SOUTHWEST 20-30 KNOTS UP TO 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A FEW ECHOES WERE SHOWING UP
ON COMPOSITE RADAR ACROSS BAKER COUNTY WHERE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED CLOUDINESS. PREFERRING FASTER/MOISTER GFS/EC AS NAM DOESN/T
BRING PRECIP IN UNTIL 21-24Z /4 PM PDT/ THERE. STRONG SW WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY AND BRING
TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE 70S VALLEYS...AND SOME 25 MPH WIND GUSTS IN
THE FORESTS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE STORY TONIGHT AS WELL AS A
FRONT RACES THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHERN EXPOSED AREAS - JORDAN VALLEY...UPPER TREASURE
VALLEY...AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SRN HARNEY/MALHEUR COUNTIES TODAY TO AROUND
OWYHEE COUNTY TONIGHT. BREEZY COOLER AND DRY BY AFTERNOON FOR
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EASTER WEEKEND WILL
BE WARM AND DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  A WEAK WAVE WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THIS
RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT WILL ONLY SEE SOME CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN ZONES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTER WEEKEND WILL
AVERAGE 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IN THE
LOWER 60S AND IN THE LOWER 70S IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY.  THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE TO THE
EAST AS A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA APPROACHES
THE WEST COAST.  MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
MONDAY AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTH
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.  THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
SOUTH.  PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON
TUESDAY.  AS THIS TROUGH DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE COAST WILL SEE
COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL BE 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND COOL TO 7-9 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.  SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 7000 FEET MSL OR
HIGHER ON MONDAY AND FALL TO AROUND 5500 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM MDT FRIDAY
     IDZ014>016-029.
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MDT /9 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING TO 7 AM MDT
     /6 AM PDT/ FRIDAY ORZ063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JA


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