Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 040253
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
853 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS THIS EVENING...BUT
CURRENT RAIN SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN AREAS OF ADEQUATE POPS.
LOWERED POPS IN THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. KEPT
HIGHER CHANCES IN FOR MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM IN IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND ADDED SOME ISOLATED MENTION FOR THE OWYHEES AS MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT CURRENT CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT IN
AREAS OF CLOUD CLEARING...MAINLY ONTARIO AND AREAS NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MID-LEVEL
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE IN A THIN BAND STRETCHING ACROSS SW ID
TONIGHT. CLEARING TO THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG AND IFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEYS OF THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL SEE INCREASED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SE OREGON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NW SURFACE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. S-SW WINDS ALOFT TO 30 KTS THROUGH
10K FEET MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN TO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW VFR AND
LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS SE OREGON
SATURDAY AND SW IDAHO SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS SURFACE AND
ALOFT SATURDAY WILL WEAKEN ON SUNDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DIVE SOUTH...REACHING WESTERN
OREGON ON FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD AND ENTER SE
OREGON/SW IDAHO ON SATURDAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS /OVER SW IDAHO/
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING...THEN RE-STRENGTHEN
OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE
UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD INTO SE OREGON DURING THE AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFT-EVE THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS WILL
RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL RECEIVE
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH THROUGH SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP CONSIDERABLY BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE LOWEST LEVELS
NEAR THE UPPER LOW CENTER. SNOW LEVELS COULD BE DOWN TO AROUND
6000 FEET IN SE OREGON AND 7500 FEET IN SW IDAHO BY SATURDAY
MORNING. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE THESE
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD UPPER
LOW...THE INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON
FRIDAY...AND AROUND 5-10 DEGREES LOWER ON SATURDAY WHEN VALLEY
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S. LOCALLY BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION SUNDAY LEAVING THE REGION IN COOL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AFTER SUNDAY TO
AROUND NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND
MONDAY IS LOW AS MODELS HAVE A DIFFERENT HANDLING OF THE TROPICAL
SYSTEMS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...EP
AVIATION.....DG
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....KA/KA


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