Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000
FXUS65 KBOI 181007
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
307 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A
SPLIT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH...WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
RESIDING TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF BOISE. THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.
SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 3000 AND 3500 FEET WILL RISE TO NEAR 4000 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
BRING A BRIEF DRY PERIOD TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WHILE A
MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH
HAS AMPLE MOISTURE WITH IT TO DELIVER PRECIPITATION TO ALL OF SE
OREGON AND SW IDAHO ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MODEL QPF AND SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE. LOOKING FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
ABOVE 3500 FEET AND 2-4 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE 3500 FEET ALTHOUGH ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 3000
AND 3500 FEET COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  ZONAL FLOW
WILL SET UP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD JUST OFF THE COAST THAT WILL SHIFT
THE FLOW FROM WESTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY.
DECREASING POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST BUT
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY.  SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION WITH SNOW
LEVEL RISING TO AROUND 6000 FEET.  PRECIPITATION WILL SLOW DECREASE
OVER THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS AND BAKER COUNTY OREGON WITH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BEING MOSTLY DRY.  TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BUT FOR NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY THIS MORNING...OVER BAKER
COUNTY OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO.  VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE UNDER BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID LEVEL CEILINGS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA



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