Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 302106

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
306 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...Extensive mid/high clouds are taking longer to
exit from the southwest, so we updated high temps lower today
mainly in the central and northern parts of our CWA.  Even
tonight the GFS keeps enough clouds in Idaho for virga or
sprinkles from the Owyhee Mountains to the west central Idaho
mountains.  On Wednesday attention shifts to eastern-most Idaho
zones where a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms are
forecast in the afternoon.  GFS reorganizes the cloud band and
showers at that time, just before it shifts into southeastern
Idaho.  On Thursday the main north Pacific upper trough will
move inland with cooling, especially for Oregon zones.  Thursday
also looks dry, except for a slight chance of afternoon
thunderstorms in the Elkhorns of western Baker County and in
southern Twin Falls County, Idaho.

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Tuesday...The upper level trough
off the British Columbia coastline starts tracking southward
Thursday night. Frontal passage for southwestern Idaho still
expected Friday morning. This will be quite evident by our
temperatures Friday with most locations seeing a 10-12 degree drop
from Thursday. Boise is forecast to be 11 degrees below normal.
Chances of precipitation remain highest Friday morning/early
afternoon. Model differences after Friday leave confidence low.


.AVIATION...VFR with areas of MVFR/IFR conditions in and around
wildfires. Isolated showers/thunderstorms this afternoon in
Baker County. Surface winds, mostly variable 10 kts or less, excpet
southeastern Oregon with gusty winds 15-25 kts with higher gusts
possible in and around thunderstorms. Winds aloft to 10k feet MSL,
south-southwest 15-35 kts.


ID...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening
OR...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/ this evening



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