Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 250330

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
930 PM MDT Wed May 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...A stalled surface front along the ID/NV border has
been focus of shower and thunderstorm development this
afternoon/evening. Outside of a few showers, most of the activity
remained in northern NV and is beginning to diminish with sunset.
Gusty winds will continue to subside this evening as the surface
pressure gradient weakens. Water vapor satellite pics showing the
next upper level feature dropping through eastern WA. Clouds will
increase across e-central Oregon and the w-central ID mountains
tonight, but precipitation will remain further north. Have made
minor updates to lower precipitation chances across northern zones
for late tonight, otherwise forecast is on track.


.AVIATION...VFR with mostly clear skies tonight. Surface winds 15-20
kts with gusts to 25 kts in most locations becoming light after
sunset. Winds aloft near 10 KFT MSL: northwest 20-25 kts. Clouds
increasing early Thursday with showers developing mainly over the
higher terrain Thursday Afternoon.


SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday...Scattered clouds and
isolated showers developed along the Nevada border in the
vicinity of a cold front. The showers are expected to remain
south of the border as the front continues to shift to the south
through this evening. Breezy to locally windy conditions will
persist through this evening but will diminish after sunset. An
upper trough over southern British Columbia will move into the
area on Thursday and remain in place through Friday. Showers and a
slight chance of afternoon-evening thunderstorms will accompany
the trough, mainly across the north on Thursday and then mainly in
SW Idaho on Friday. Best chance for showers will be over the
higher terrain. The winds will be weaker Thursday through Friday,
except gusty winds will accompany the thunderstorms. Temperatures
will be cooler on Thursday, then slightly warmer on Friday; in
general - below normal through the period.

LONG TERM...Friday night through Wednesday...An upper level
ridge off the coast will continue to amplify, and by Sunday the
axis is expected to move directly over the CWA. This pattern is
expected to stay in place through the long term which will keep
temperatures above normal, and conditions dry. The ECMWF, and
more-so the GFS, are indicating some isolated mountain showers in
the afternoons under the ridge from leftover moisture. While it is
possible, the forecast reflects a more likely drier solution.





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