Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 300942
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
342 AM MDT Tue May 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM MDT Tue May 30 2017

Looking like a bit less convection today as the environment is a
little warmer and drier. Plains may be entirely capped, though
there is still the threat of storms moving off the mountains into
the adjacent plains. Models have pretty good consensus on focusing
on development west and southwest of Denver that moves southeast,
and our current forecast matches this pretty well. CAPEs look to
be under 500 J/kg, so not expecting any strength to the storms.
Just some minor timing adjustments for this package. I also
subtracted a couple of degrees tonight with clearing skies and
light winds.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 341 AM MDT Tue May 30 2017

Wednesday through Thursday, the flow aloft will weaken with a
ridge of high pressure moving into the region from the west. A
weak trough over northeast New MX may advect some subtropical
moisture northward, but this will be limited and impact primarily
southeast CO. Temperatures will climb 5-8 degrees above normal
with highs to around 84 for Denver by Thursday. Coverage wise, the
best chance of thunderstorms primarily in the aftn and evening
will be over the higher terrain. It will be drier in the lower
levels, with more of an inverted-v profile in the forecast
soundings. This would favor gusty winds with primarily light
rainfall for the Urban Corridor Wednesday aftn with the chance for
stronger storms further east along the KS border. Average of
computed sfc based CAPES drop to less than 500 j/kg after 21z
Wednesday aftn, with much higher CAPES around 1500 j/kg over
eastern Logan, Sedgwick and Phillips Counties. On Thursday, it
will be warmer with a weaker mid level flow aloft as the ridge
axis moves over the cwa. The NAM12 generates much higher CAPES vs
the GFS Thu aftn along the northern border, but less elsewhere.
For now will follow similar trends to those on Wednesday with
drier more high based storms over the I-25 Corridor, with wetter
and potentially stronger storms to the north and east. Friday and
Friday night, the flow aloft transition to northwesterly but
remains weak. It will remain warm on Friday but a couple of
degrees less. Will keep scattered pops in the high country, but
this could be considerably less if the computed CAPES generated
by the GFS pan out. If this occurs, then the best chc of
thunderstorms will be along the KS and NE borders. The models
show temperatures cooling back into the 70s over the weekend. A
front is progged to push into the northeast plains, but this may
not occur until Saturday night into Sunday. Once the front settles
along the Front Range Foothills and Palmer Divide, there will be
a better focus for thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 341 AM MDT Tue May 30 2017

VFR through tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected over the
mountains 20z-02z, but little or no impact expected at the Denver
terminals.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Gimmestad



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