Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 241031

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
431 AM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 431 AM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Water vapor and IR satellite loops show a nice plume of moisture
and showers/thunderstorms fanning out from southern California
into western Utah. This plume of moisture will continue to push
eastward today and reach the northern Colorado mountains late this
evening and overnight. 700-500 mb specific humidity and
precipitable water values are rather healthy under this plume,
with 4+ g/kg and >0.75", respectively. There is also weak QG lift
associated with this plume and upper level speed max marching this
way. As a result, should see a well organized band of
precipitation spread east/northeast across the mountains 05Z-12Z.
Mid level flow turns more westerly and some cold advection as well
late tonight so precipitation will be fairly widespread in the
high country. Snow levels per wet bulb zero levels stay quite high
and expect most valley locations below 9000-9500 feet to stay
rain. Accumulations above 10,000 feet mostly expected to range
from 1-4 inches.

Can`t rule out an isolated shower or two spreading east on the
northern plains late tonight with jet dynamics, otherwise low
levels and downslope east of the Rockies too strong to allow much
more than that.

In the meantime, temperatures will remain quite mild today with
upper ridge axis and thermal ridge shifting slowly east across the
region. Not sure exactly how thick cirrus shield will be today as
cross mountain flow does not support significant mountain wave
enhancement. Will warm temps a few degrees expecting sufficient
sunshine and warm advection.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 431 AM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Lingering shower activity, mainly over the mountains, will
continue Tuesday and into Tuesday evening as the weak upper level
disturbance crosses over the state. Cross sections show a decent
amount of moisture continuing over the mountains to produce
scattered showers. Temperatures will remain mild with snow levels
around or above the 10,000 foot level. The period of heaviest
precipitation appears like it will be at the beginning of the
trough passage Monday evening, so rain or snowfall amounts should
be pretty light during Tuesday. After this disturbance passes,
strong ridging will re-build over the state, bringing warmer
temperatures and dry weather back to the region through the end of
the week. The GFS and ECMWF still have conflicting solutions for
Friday night and Saturday, so will favor the drier ECMWF solution
for the time being.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 431 AM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

VFR conditions will persist through Tuesday morning. A mid level
cloud deck around 10,000 feet AGL is expected to develop 09Z-14Z
with passage of mid level moisture plume. Winds will transition
from W/SW less than 10 knots this morning to more easterly around
10 knots by 18Z-20Z. Could become variable for a while this
evening before transitioning back to S/SW around 10 knots 02Z-06Z.




SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Dankers
AVIATION...Barjenbruch is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.