Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 270225
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
825 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD
TEMPS. JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
OVER HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE LOW LEVELS SUFFICIENTLY
DRY TO PREVENT ANY LIGHT PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN U.S THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER COLORADO. FLOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY MIGRATES EAST. THERE IS SOME MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE PLAINS. CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF WEAK
SHOWER OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER FOR TONIGHT.

WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...BUT NO AS STRONG AS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

PROGRESSIVE RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA DAMPENS OUT INTO SMALLER AND FASTER MOVING
OSCILLATIONS STARTING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD...DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW A
NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE POLAR JET UP OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY
SHIFTING EAST OVER THE ROCKY MTN REGION ON SATURDAY. SHOULD SEE
DRIER AND WARMER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY BENEATH THE
UPPER RIDGE WITH AMPLE DIABATIC/SOLAR HEATING RESULTING IN MAX
TEMPS 15- 20DEG F ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. IF IT WERE NOT FOR
THE LIGHT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS ON THE PLAINS THE WILDLAND
FIRE DANGER WOULD BE MUCH GREATER. AS IT STANDS NOW...CRITICAL
WILDLAND FIRE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW...ALTHOUGH AREAS UP ALONG THE
WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER COULD SEE GUSTY NWLY WINDS DVLP LATE IN
THE DAY WHICH COULD ELEVATE THE WILDLAND FIRE DANGER IN THAT AREA.
STILL WIND GUSTS AND MIN RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FIRE
WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE PASSING RIDGE BEING FLATTENED BY
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DARTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS UPPER AIR FEATURE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT WHICH
MOST MODELS SHOW RACING SOUTHWARD ACRS NERN COLORADO LATE SAT NIGHT.
DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...
BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND AND A PERIOD OF MID-CLOUD CVR FOR ERN PLAINS. PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO LOWER MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY BY ABOUT 10 DEG F.
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CLEAR OUT SKIES LATER IN THE DAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS BEGIN TO STRAY APART WITH THE GFS/GEFS LOOKING
WETTER...COOLER AND MORE SYNOPTICALLY ACTIVE THAN THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES. AS STATED YESTERDAY...DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS BEYOND MONDAY...WILL
USE A BLEND AND LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE DRIER AND WARMER SOLUTIONS
THIS GO AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 825 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS A
WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR KDEN WHICH MAY BRING A LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT
TO WINDS THROUGH 06Z...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO NORMAL
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG ENOUGH HEATING ON
FRIDAY TO MIX NORTHWEST WINDS BACK DOWN TO THE FRONT RANGE
AIRPORTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS COULD REACH 20-22 KNOTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH


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