Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000
FXUS61 KBOX 290749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
349 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY
BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH SLIGHT WARMING AT 850 MB
RESULTING IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH READINGS
MOSTLY 80-85 DEGREES EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP BUT MOSUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO THE N WHICH WILL BRING SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY N AREAS. OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS A BIT MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH READINGS MID TO
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S URBAN CENTERS
AND COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AND GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVES IN
ALONG WITH INCREASING KI VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES. THERE IS NO
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT CANT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 15C SUPPORT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S...COOLER S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT INCREASING INTO THE 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
IT WILL BECOMING A BIT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT TUESDAY
* HEAT WAVE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN ZONES MON-THURS

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO THE AREA BY THE
MID TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BUILD. BUT OVERALL
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ON
MONDAY. WESTERN FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX
OUT AND WINDS TO INCREASE NEAR 20 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE
REACHING AROUND 16C. THIS WILL YIELD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 90F.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARITIMES ON TUESDAY BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO THE REGION. THE GFS IS
MORE PRONOUNCE WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT CLOSE TO IMMEDIATE COAST.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS
COASTAL COMMUNITIES COOLER ON TUESDAY BUT WESTERN ZONES STILL
REACHING UPPER 80S NEAR 90F.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 17-19C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S. THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER
VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4 DAYS HEAT WAVE. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL
LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE AS
WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. THURSDAY SEEMS TO THE BEST DAY FOR A CHC OF
PRECIP AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY IFR FOG DEVELOPING IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS
SEEING GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ON MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN


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