Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 052336
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
636 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MANY
LOCATION BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE OUR NEXT WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 636 PM EST THURSDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING THIS CLOUD COVER
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT...WITH SKIES BECOMING
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED WELL...SO NO CHANGES MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM EST THURSDAY...FCST CHALLENGE
TONIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR CWA. SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS 1035MB HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THE LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TRRN/THERMAL
DRIVEN WINDS. GIVEN THE COLDEST CORE OF 85H AIR OF -20C IS ACROSS
OUR CWA...UNDER THESE CONDITIONS...EXPECT MANY LOCATIONS TO DROP
BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. THINKING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM -20F AT
SLK/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO -10F TO -20F SAINT LAWRENCE/MOST OF
CENTRAL VT TO 0F TO -10F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. COLDEST VALUES
WILL BE IN THE DEEPER/PROTECTED VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR CONTS TO
SHOW THE NORTHEAST CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM
JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIP EVENTS. ON FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AT 12Z...WILL
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BY EVENING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM FROM -20C TO -14C BY
00Z SATURDAY...WITH FULL SUN WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S
WARMER VALLEYS TO M/U TEENS IN THE MTNS. HAVE TRENDED A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...BASED ON GOOD MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH
PLENTY OF MARCH SUNSHINE. NEXT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE APPROACHES OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 06Z SATURDAY. AS WITH MANY CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEMS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH PWS VALUES BTWN 0.20 AND
0.25"...RESULTING IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL WILL
RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MENTION LIKELY POPS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH CHC ELSEWHERE.

NAM/GFS SHOW PROGGED 85H WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE
SHADOWING IN THE CPV. ALSO...EXPECT SOME ENHANCED CHANNELING OF
THE SFC WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...THINKING
EARLY EVENING LOWS...WITH TEMPS WARMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDEST
VALUES NEAR -10F WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH +10F IN THE
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
20S MOST LOCATIONS WITH MAYBE A SPOT 30F IN THE WARMER URBAN AREAS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. COOLER TEMPS RETURN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DEPARTING SNOW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY PRODUCING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW, FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER AND A ANOTHER TASTE OF SPRING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED MOVING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL AND FAST FLOW
ALOFT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ZIP THROUGH THE FLOW, SPECIFICALLY
A WEAK ONE SUNDAY AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE ON MONDAY, BOTH LIKELY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE SNOW TOTALS
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE. AFTER MONDAY, THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL GET A
NICE TASTE OF SPRING AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THE
RESULTING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES AT AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
40S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WHILE I`VE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK, IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WE`LL BE ON THE EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY WITH
ENERGY PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING, BUT WILL GO
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES THIS TAF PERIOD
AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
STILL CONTENDING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 5-10 KTS BUT WILL SLACKEN TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE INTO THE EVENING AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.
EXCEPTION AT RUT WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS THERE DRIVEN BY
CLIMATOLOGICAL LOCAL FLOW.

AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY, WITH
INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
ONTARIO. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS, GENERALLY INCREASING
IN SPEEDS TO 8-12 KTS (GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT MSS). WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL BUT STILL IN THE VFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z - 06Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO


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