Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 251120
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
720 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures can be expected today through the entire
holiday weekend as a general southwest flow aloft becomes
established. A frontal boundary will move into the area this
afternoon and enhance the potential for thunderstorms...some of
which could produce gusty winds. Dry weather is expected on
Thursday...but increasing moisture through the Memorial Day weekend
will combine with the above normal temperatures to bring about
chances for afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 654 AM EDT Wednesday...Going forecast in good shape with
only some minor tweaks to temperatures and dew points to match
current conditions. Otherwise...relatively quiet weather is
expected this morning...but as a cold front moves down out of
Canada later today through the first part of tonight...the threat
for thunderstorms will exist. The best potential for storms still
looks to be north of a Saranac Lake to Saint Johnsbury line. In
addition...dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere will help
to create an inverted-V sounding profile which indicates higher
based thunderstorms would have the potential to produce gusty
winds. Will go ahead and include this in the forecast for this
afternoon and evening. Any showers and storms should be ending by
midnight. High temperatures today will be in the upper 70s to mid
80s.

The front will exit the area tonight as northwest flow aloft
develops. As mentioned earlier...convection should end before
midnight with quiet weather expected the rest of the night.
Northwest flow aloft prevails on Thursday...but eventually back to
the southwest late in the day. Dry weather is expected along with a
good deal of sunshine. Temperatures at 925 mb will be a little
cooler than today...thus looking at high temperatures in the mid 70s
to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...Will have showers move into the area
thursday night with a warm front lifting across our forecast area.
warm temperatures and showers will continue into friday.
thunderstorms will be possible friday afternoon. minimum
temperatures thursday night will only drop into the lower 60s...
then max temperatures on friday will be in the upper 80s. very
warm upper level ridge in place along with warm air advection from
warm front will be the main players with the showers and warm
temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...models continue to diverge quiet a
bit for the extended portion of the forecast. warm temperatures
continue for friday and saturday with large ridge still in place.
they should be the warmest couple of days in the entire 8 day
forecast...both days feature afternoon showers and thunderstorms
also. strong high pressure east of the region on sunday will
ridge back towards the north country and push a backdoor cold
front across our area. this will bring cooler temperatures for
sunday into the beginning of next week...and also another chance
for showers on sunday. for monday and tuesday temperatures will
trend back towards seasonal normals with a low passing north of
our area and showers spreading across the north country.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Mainly VFR through the period. still some
fg at mpv and rut early this morning. think that fog should lift
by about 10 am. then, VFR continues with mainly clear skies
through 18z. There will be an increasing threat of showers and a
few storms after 18Z an have vcsh mentioned at this time. showers
will end with loss of daytime heating later on this evening.

Outlook 12Z Thursday through Sunday...

12Z Thu through 12Z Fri...mainly VFR/high pressure.

12Z Fri onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a few
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles


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