Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 012325
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET AND PLEASANT NIGHT AGAIN IN
STORE FOR THE AREA AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING REMAINS ATOP THE
NORTHEAST. AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT, A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT
REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN THE LIGHT FLOW OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER OUR
AREA AND WESTBOUND OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND IS PROVIDING
ANOTHER SOMEWHAT HAZY SUNSET. I DID OPT TO TWEAK LOW TEMPERATURES
JUST A BIT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCALES IN CLOSER AGREEMENT TO
CANADIAN BIAS-CORRECTED DATA, BUT IN ESSENCE REALLY JUST COSMETIC
CHANGES AS VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 55 TO 63 RANGE STILL EXPECTED
AS PRIOR FORECAST INDICATED. NIL POPS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND VERY WARM
WEDNESDAY. ONCE EARLY AM FOG DISSIPATES...LOOKING AT NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +17C TO +18C...WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH A FEW ISOLD
90F READINGS POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN OUR OVERALL PATTERN OF THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NERN U.S.. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...AND THEN THE BEST FORCING CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE KEPT 15-30
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DURING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR A STRAY TSTM IN SPOTS ACROSS NRN NY/NRN VT.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID 60S.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
THURSDAY...BUT A DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND DECREASING CLOUDS. THURSDAY TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 81-85F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEXT
CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
CROSSING THE AREA. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/LIFR BR/FG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK IN THE
06-13Z TIME FRAME, OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING
VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...JMG/NEILES


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