Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 301440
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1040 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND INTO VERMONT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT...BUT
REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BREAK DOWN THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CURRENTLY ENCROACHING UPON SOUTHWESTERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY
AND THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD, SPREADING AND LOWERING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY, ALSO BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN/AMPLIFY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN IR
IMAGERY SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS WI/IL. DOWNSTREAM VORTICITY MAX
ACROSS OHIO/NWRN PA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD
ACROSS WRN AND NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASSOCIATED
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALREADY
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN HALF OF
AND NWRN PA PER REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AT 1130Z. ANTICIPATE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REACHING ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN NY
COUNTIES TOWARD 15Z...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT NEWD INTO THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...MAINLY 20-23Z. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK PER
00Z NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT 100-500 J/KG ACROSS NRN NY
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING THIS AFTN. CARRIED A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS NRN
NY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING INTO WRN VT FOR A FEW HRS LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH VALLEY
HIGHS GENERALLY REACHING 75-80F. ANTICIPATE HIGHS 80-81F AT BTV
AND VSF. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF MEAN TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI AND OHIO...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SERN
ONTARIO/WRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY GENERALLY WANES
AFTER SUNSET...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 03Z
WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
APPRECIABLY...WITH EARLY AM LOWS MAINLY 60-65F. 10-METER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY 15-20 KTS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

IT APPEARS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST 700-500MB
HEIGHT FALLS 15-18Z WEDNESDAY. SBCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASES TO
500-800 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY
TO BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD FURTHER EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY RAMPED UP POPS
TO 60-80 PERCENT DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...WITH COINCIDES WITH
BEST SYNOPTIC ASCENT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER (LIMITED BY LACK OF MUCH INSOLATIONAL
HEATING)...BUT A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY
REACHING 1.50 IN. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 74-78F. ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
DIMINISHING PCPN CHANCES AND PARTIAL CLEARING. MAY SEE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING.

DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S PROVIDING FOR LOW HUMIDITY.
MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY 00Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT
IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY LAYER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STILL
WATCHING S/W ENERGY ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
BEST CHCS FOR A PASSING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO VT. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING A BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
START BTWN 8 AND 10C FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WARM BTWN
11-13C BY SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE M/U 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER VALLEYS. A FEW
WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE LATE TUES INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK...BASED ON
CRNT MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...LIFR IN FOG/BR AND CIGS OVERCAST AROUND
100 FEET WILL PREVAIL AT SLK/MPV THROUGH 13Z.
OTHERWISE...MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL RACE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER AFT 20Z TODAY...AND PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MPV...BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE 5
TO 10 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT SLK/MPV OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME BR POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS NOT REACHING CROSS OVER
VALUES.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS WITH SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL LOCALIZED DOWN POURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS IS POSSIBLE BTWN 18Z-00Z WEDS. DRIER
WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV


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