Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 011133
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
733 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR TODAY TO HAVE THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER
THE COMING DAYS. THERE WILL BE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 648 AM EDT FRIDAY...STILL HAVE SOME EARLY MORNING FOG
AROUND...WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WARMING. SO HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE FIELDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE
WARMEST DAY OVER THE NEXT FEW WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...WHICH IS GENERALLY RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. DEW POINTS
STILL ONLY REMAINING IN THE 50S TODAY...SO ANY INSTABILITY THAT
DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A BIT LIMITED. FORCING IS ALSO
LIMITED TODAY WITH THE MOUNTAINS ACTING AS THE BEST SOURCE OF
LIFT. AS A RESULT...FEEL THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS FROM GETTING
ORGANIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 419 AM EDT FRIDAY...ANY CONVECTION COMES TO AN END SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. FLOW ALOFT ACTUALLY BACKS JUST A BIT WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING ABOUT MORE CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD AS WELL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY
SHOULD KEEP STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
BEING THE MAIN THREAT...ALONG WITH LIGHTNING OF COURSE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S
TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 419 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO MONDAY. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK DISTURBANCE
IN FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WE BEGIN TO SEE SOME HEIGHT FALLS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE WESTERLY. STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION...INDICATIONS THAT A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
RESULT WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS
TUESDAY. STILL CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN THURSDAY...DEPENDING ON ANY LINGERING SHORTWAVES IN
FLOW ALOFT. BUT OVERALL THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER CONDITIONS
AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 12-14C MONDAY/TUESDAY...COOLING JUST A
DEGREE OR TWO WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.
MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER
60S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND BY MID WEEK

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY AS WELL
AS SOME PATCHY MID CLOUDS. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IFR IN FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING AT SLK/MPV WHICH WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12-14Z...AND
MORE FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AS SAME SITES AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS





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