Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBTV 042350
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
750 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 714 PM EDT TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS
EVENING AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. FEEL DYNAMIC
SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN
CONVECTION OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. WOULD
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT BEFORE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. HAVE TWEAKED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO...OTHERWISE
ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT TUESDAY...FOR WEDNESDAY UPPER LOW PROGRESSES
SLOWLY EASTWARD AND SAGS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY OVER TIME. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE PRIOR TRENDS IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. EXPECT RATHER NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH
HIGHEST POPS NORTH. ALSO A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN...AND WITH COOL POOL ALOFT AND SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS TRENDING COOLER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DURING
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN ZONES AS COOL
POOL ALOFT AND UPPER TROUGH REMAIN OVER THE REGION. MAX TEMPS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ONCE AGAIN WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENCE CYCLONIC FLOW OF THIS WEEK DIMINISHES A TAD FOR LATE
WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND WITH A SPLIT ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND
THEN A RETURN TO CYCLONIC FLOE NE NOAM TROFINESS LATE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MAIN SYSTEM MAY NOT BE A CONCERN TO US AND THAT IS A SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM ACROSS APPALACHIANS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
FRI/SAT WANTING TO MAKE A MOVE NNE TOWARD SE NEW ENGLAND COAST BUT
FOR NOW SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH NOT TO THREATEN AREA. HOWEVER...MID-
LEVEL TROFINESS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY PERSISTENCE CYCLONIC
FLOW OF THIS WEEK DIMINISHES A TAD FOR LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND
WITH A SPLIT ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN A RETURN TO
CYCLONIC FLOE NE NOAM TROFINESS LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIGHT NOW...FRI AND SAT LOOK DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE WITH MAX T
IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR PREDOMINATES THE PERIOD BUT EXPECT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR VISIBILITY AT KMPV-KSLK
BETWEEN 07-12Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM WILL
LINGER IN THE REGION UNTIL AROUND 05Z. EXPECT A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 17Z ACROSS THE AREA.

WINDS ARE LIGHT AR 05-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL RESUME OUT OF THE WEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT 05-15 KNOTS.



OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR COMING TO AN END. PATCHY
IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK
TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH POSSIBLE
MVFR TO IFR OVERNIGHT AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) APPEARS TO BE AVAILABLE AGAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MV/SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.