Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBTV 250257
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
957 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM RAIN OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. RUNOFF
FROM SNOW MELT AND RAINFALL COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING AREA WIDE.
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH ARE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK,
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH IN VERMONT. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF
HEADING INTO FRIDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 957 PM EST WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF
THE STEADIER RAIN THAT WAS OVER THE REGION EARLIER THIS EVENING
HAS MOVED EAST INTO MAINE AT THIS TIME. THUS...MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SEEING A BREAK IN THE RAIN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...FURTHER UPSTREAM COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING A WELL
DEFINED FINE LINE FROM WESTERN NEW YORK STATE SOUTH TO EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA AT THIS TIME. THIS IS THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE SEEN WIND GUSTS OF 35-50 KNOTS
WITH THIS FINE LINE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. ALSO
EXPECTING ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN AS THIS COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO
CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER LOW AT 12Z
THURSDAY OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. SURFACE WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE
TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEARBY AND SOUTHWEST CHANNELING IN SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDS SHOW STEEP INVERSION
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WASHES OUT AND BOUDNARY LAYER BECOMES WELL MIXED
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. SUSTAINED 25 KTS AND GUSTS TO 50 KTS POSSIBLE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE DAY CHRISTMAS DAY AND DOWNSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT ALSO POSSIBLE IN WESTERN CLINTON COUNTY ON NORTHEAST
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS. LESSER WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. HIGH WIND WARNING AND
WIND ADVISORY TO CONTINUE AS ISSUED...WARNING FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND WEST CLINTON COUNTY AND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

TEMPS ALL OVER THE PLACE ON THURSDAY WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION
COOLING THINGS OFF IN THE ADIRONDACKS WHILE DOWNSLOPE MAY CONTINUE
SOME WARMTH IN WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

LOW DEPARTS TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND BROAD RIDGE OVER
EASTERN US WILL CREATE GENERALLY WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH NEAR
NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. UPSHOT IS NOT SIGNIFICANT COOLING
BEHIND THE CHRISTMAS DAY COLD FRONT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL PICK UP
MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES AND EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TO RUN 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL VERY QUIET EXTENDED FCST
PERIOD WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURING MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST BREAKING DOWN...WITH A FAST/PROGRESSIVE
CONFLUENT FLW DEVELOPING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...ACRS THE
CONUS...A MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE WL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH SHARP TROF OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES EJECTING FROM TROF INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
CONUS. ALL MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL S/W`S
AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTERACTION ASSOCIATED WITH SUB TROPICAL
JET...ESPECIALLY TWD THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. CRNT TRENDS
HAVE BEEN FOR THE ECMWF TO COME IN LINE WITH THE GFS IN THIS FAST
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...WITH LITTLE AMPLIFICATION AND SYSTEMS
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z GEM AND
THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ITS SEEMS LATELY EURO DOES BETTER IN
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/CLOSED SYSTEMS WHILE GFS TENDS TO BE BETTER IN
THE FAST PROGRESS FLW PATTERNS ACRS THE CONUS. THIS WL SUPPORT BLW
AVERAGE CHCS FOR PRECIP...WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK SFC LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY...AND WL PUSH A COLD FRNT THRU OUR CWA.
THIS SFC CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB RH AND WEAK 5H VORTICITY WL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WE ARE WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR AGAIN...BEFORE ENDING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY MTN SNOW
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND FRNT
ON SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -10C BY 00Z
MONDAY AND BTWN -13C AND -15C BY 00Z TUESDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY
LIMITED SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF...MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES IN THE
MTNS...WITH LLVL CAA SQUEEZING OUT REMAINING MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SFC RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NY FROM TUES INTO WEDS...WL KEEP FCST
MAINLY DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING OF
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES...I HAVE
CARRIED SOME CHC POPS TWD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD WITH SIGNIFICANT AVIATION
IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. LOW CEILINGS, PERIODS OF MIST,
LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND THEN A SHARP COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
GUSTY WINDS/ACCOMPANYING TURBULENCE.

LIGHT RAIN WITH VFR TO IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PRECIPITATION THEN
BECOMES MORE SHOWERY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES, WITH
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN THE VFR/MVFR RANGE. IN SPITE OF A
DIMINISHING SNOWPACK, A CONTINUED RISK OF MIST WILL EXIST AFTER
INITIAL STEADIER RAIN. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR ABOVE STRONG INVERSION
DURING THIS PERIOD, AS CXX AND TYX WIND PROFILER SHOWS WINDS AT 2
KFT NEAR 40 KTS AND LIKELY TO INCREASE ANOTHER 5-10 KTS. SURFACE
WINDS SOUTHEAST UNDER 10 KNOTS, THOUGH A BIT STRONGER AT RUT AND
PBG.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING AROUND 08Z AT MSS, SLK PBG BTV 10-11Z
AND AFTER 12Z FOR MPV AND RUT. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONT. A SHARP, GUSTY WIND SHIFT FROM
SOUTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 45 KT RANGE
(HIGHEST AT MSS). CEILINGS VFR/MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MORE
FAVORED AT MPV AND SLK BEHIND FRONT.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... GUSTY WINDS WL CONT ON THURS
AFTN...WITH VALUES BTWN 30 AND 40 KNOTS LIKELY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
CONDITIONS WL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR TO VFR BY FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. NEXT WEAK SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHC OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS/MPV.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE BACKED OFF ON STORM TOTAL RAINFALL TO A HALF TO ONE INCH
ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWMELT TO CONTINUE WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS STEADY MAINLY IN THE 40S. SNOWPACK HOLDING
1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT, AND MUCH OF THE SWE IS
FORECAST TO BE RELEASED IN THE UPCOMING MELT EPISODE. ALTHOUGH
LESS RAIN FORECAST...COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND ONGOING SNOWMELT
CAN STILL POTENTIALLY CREATE FLOODING. RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL SEE
SHARP RISES TO BANKFULL...AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE DUE TO SNOW
BLOCKED DITCHES WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON
HOW FORECAST RAINFALL PLAYS OUT BUT STILL ENOUGH OF A FLOOD RISK
TO CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH. EAST BRANCH AUSABLE AT AUSABLE FORKS NY,
OTTER CREEK AT CENTER RUTLAND, AND WINOOSKI AT ESSEX JUNCTION OF
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH FORECAST RISES TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY (THURSDAY). SOUTH WINDS
FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL PEAK EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND RETURNING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER...
BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD...THURSDAY NIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 2
TO 4 FEET THIS EVENING...AND 3 TO 5 FEET EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BEFORE SUBSIDING BACK TO 1 TO 3 FEET LATER THURSDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST WAVES WILL OCCUR IN THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS WELL AS ALONG OPEN AND SOUTHWARD FACING SHORES.
INCREASED CHOP IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS WELL AS WINDS TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ026-
     027-031-087.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028>030-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.