Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 011636
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1236 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON
UPDATE. DID INCREASE CLOUDS AROUND THE DARIEN AREA WHERE THICK
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING FIRM. STILL EXPECT THIS AREA TO MIX OUT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE COULD SPREAD MORE HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT THE MAIN PROBLEM TONIGHT WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE A POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT FOG. WE INTRODUCED AREAS OF
FOG OVER INLAND SE GEORGIA WITH PATCHY FOG MOST OTHER AREAS BY
DAWN ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE CENTERED TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
EAST OF THE AREA. THUS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER
COASTAL AREAS WHICH WILL BE MODIFIED BY THE ONSHORE FLOW. MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...BUT IT SHOULD STILL REMAIN DRY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ALONG WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET
THERE COULD BE SOME FOG INLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE SPREADING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKE IT WILL BE
LIMITED...HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT SHEAR
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND.
SHERB VALUES OFF THE GFS AND NAM ARE LESS THAN 1 SO NOT TOO
FAVORABLE OVERALL. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST.

SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH LIKELY GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
COLD ADVECTION. HIGHS LIKELY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATING. THE COOLEST TEMPS WILL COME
SUNDAY MORNING WHEN 40S ARE POSSIBLE INLAND. THE CHILLY START WILL
YIELD A COOL AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS SUNDAY POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF
THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR/LOWER VSBYS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON
THURSDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF RADIATIONAL FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG
AND/OR STRATUS EARLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALSO...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE LIKELY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS FOR THE MOST PART LIGHT AND ONSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRES EXPANDS TO THE NORTH. SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS
1 TO 3 FT...HIGHEST WELL OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRIDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP FRIDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND THEN SHIFT WEST EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO PICK UP AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RATHER
QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY HOWEVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST



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