Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
FXUS62 KCHS 271124
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
724 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016
High pressure centered to the north will prevail into Monday. Low
pressure will then persist into late next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A broad upper level ridge will remain centered over eastern VA
today while surface high pressure persists over New England,
extending southwest into the area. Fairly dry air and a capped
atmosphere will exist over most of the area. However, farther
south from the upper ridge axis where the low-level onshore flow
is focused, there may be enough moisture convergence to support
isolated showers moving from the GA waters onshore. We maintained
slight chance pops over the southern waters and land areas along
the Altamaha River. Warm thicknesses will yield middle 90s for
highs inland while the onshore flow keeps coastal areas in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. Tonight`s lows will be in the lower 70s.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Deep high pressure will be replaced with more troughing through the
period and this should result in increasing clouds/rain chances and
as a result, lowering temperatures. Limited instability should keep
thunder chances low and also help keep total rain amounts pretty low
as well. Temperatures will average near to slightly above normal.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
There is still some uncertainty through mid week regarding the
potential for low pressure to develop and track close to the area.
Nonetheless troughing will prevail into late week and we kept rain
chances near normal. Temperatures should be a bit above normal
through at least Thursday before likely falling closer to normal by
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Extended Aviation Outlook: There will be an increased risk of
flight restrictions in showers/possible thunderstorms through the
middle of next week depending on the track of low pressure which
is likely to be in the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
Through tonight, NE winds will prevail with sustained winds
around 15 kt. Some gusts of 15-20 kt possible along the coast
this afternoon with the sea breeze. Seas will build slightly as a
result of some easterly swell with some 5 footers possible by
afternoon over the outer waters.
Sunday through Wednesday: High pressure centered north of the
area will generally prevail but weaken as a trough and possible
area of low pressure affect the waters. This pattern will favor
mainly east/northeast winds 15 kt or less with some higher gusts
at times. Seas should peak up to 4 ft within near shore waters and
5 ft in the outer waters. Thus, Small Craft Advisories are not
expected at this time. However, mariners should note that with
increasing swells, conditions could get a little rough at times
near the entrances to bays, rivers, inlets and harbors.
Rip currents: Long period swells up near 15 seconds are expected to
impact the coast through early next week. Thus an enhanced risk
Tides are expected to remain higher than normal given the persistent
onshore winds and could reach high enough to produce minor saltwater
inundation in the typical areas along the lower SC coast during the
late day high tide cycles into early next week. Thus, Coastal Flood
Advisories may eventually be needed.