Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
FXUS62 KCHS 280614
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
114 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017
A warm front will lift north of the area late tonight and
Tuesday. High pressure will remain over the Atlantic through
early Wednesday. A cold front will move through Wednesday night
into Thursday, followed by more high pressure for the end of the
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A warm front developing across the area overnight will lift to
the north shortly after daybreak. Short wave energy aloft that
exits into the Atlantic by 09-12Z, good isentropic upglide on
the 295K surfaces and ample low level moisture will lead to
isolated to scattered showers. A smidgen of surface based
instability and elevated instability will lead to a few places
from Effingham County to Colleton County experiencing a little
thunder and lightning.
Extensive cloud cover will prevent temps from dropping too much
further, with most places holding at of above 60F and far above
No signs of fog so far, but the combination of stratus build-
down and the wet grounds from the rainfall will lead to at least
patchy fog before sunrise.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday through Wednesday Afternoon: The area will remain along the
western edge of Atlantic high pressure at the sfc and along the
northern edge of a large mid/upper lvl ridge of high pressure
centered over the Caribbean. The pattern will result in increasingly
unstable conditions as a southerly flow advects moisture and warm
air north into the area well in advance of a cold front approaching
from the west Wednesday night. Tuesday morning could start off with
some fog eroding as an inversion breaks early, but a few showers
and/or thunderstorm will be possible Tuesday afternoon, mainly for
inland areas where temps peak in the lower 80s. Record-breaking
temps will be possible Wednesday with afternoon temps approaching
the low/mid 80s away from the coast. A few showers/thunderstorms
will also be possible over inland areas into Wednesday evening, well
ahead of the cold front making way toward the Eastern seaboard late.
Wednesday Night through early Thursday: A strong cold front will
push through the region with showers and/or thunderstorms over much
of the area before daybreak Thursday. Although not climatologically
favorable for severe weather, there remains a low chance of some
thunderstorms becoming strong or perhaps severe near/along the
passing front. At this time, the greatest threat of severe weather
looks to be over inland areas in the form of damaging winds
associated with a weakening line of thunderstorms. Should the cold
front arrive earlier than anticipated, the chances of severe weather
Thursday: Dry high pressure will build over the region behind a cold
front shifting offshore. We could see a few showers linger into late
morning hours behind the front, but conditions will significantly
improve by the afternoon. Temps will be noticeably cooler than the
previous day within a north/northeast sfc flow. In general, temps
should peak in the mid 60s Thursday afternoon.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cool and dry surface high pressure will build into the area late
week and then slide into the Atlantic by Monday. Lack of moisture or
any significant forcing will allow for a precip-free forecast.
Temperatures will be near normal early in the period, then slowly
warm early next week as southerly flow develops on the backside of
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Although a little light rain could impact the terminals through
08-09Z, the majority of the scattered showers and a few
t-storms along a developing warm front will remain outside the
airfields limits overnight, as the bulk of the convection will
be offshore before daybreak. Areas of stratus and the formation
of at least patchy fog will result in MVFR or lower ceilings at
KSAV through 1430Z and from 10-14Z at KCHS.
Atlantic high pressure will expand across the area through
Tuesday into Tuesday night, which allows for mainly VFR
conditions to prevail. However, mist/fog and/or stratus could
become a concern closer to the end of the valid 06Z TAF cycle.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions possible in early
morning fog/stratus Wednesday. A cold front will move through early
Thursday with brief restrictions possible in low clouds and
Tonight: A subtle nearby Atlantic trough and an inland warm
front progressing north will produce SE and South winds at or
below 10 or 15 kt. Seas are no greater than 2-4 ft. Surface
based instability is supportive of isolated to scattered
Tuesday through Saturday: South/southwest flow will persist through
midweek as the coastal waters remain along the western edge of
Atlantic high pressure. In general, wind speeds of 10-15 kt on
Tuesday will increase 15-20 kt early Wednesday. There is a chance of
Small Craft Advisory level conditions Wednesday afternoon into early
Thursday, mainly for waters off the Charleston County coast and
offshore Georgia waters as a cold front pushes through the area
Wednesday night. A Small Craft Advisory could also be needed over
the Charleston Harbor Wednesday afternoon, mainly due to strong
winds over land drifting over waters. Expect conditions to improve
over all waters Thursday morning with winds turning to the
north/northeast behind the front shifting well offshore. High
pressure will then prevail over the waters late week with a brief
uptick of wind speeds Saturday morning.
Sea fog: A warm/moist southerly flow moving over cooler shelf waters
could result in patchy sea fog late Tuesday into Wednesday before a
cold front sweeps over the region Wednesday night.
Record high temperatures for March 1
CHS: 82 degrees last set in 1997
CXM: 79 degrees set in 1918
SAV: 86 degrees set in 1918
Record high minimum temperatures for March 1
CHS: 61 degrees set in 2012
CXM: 63 degrees set in 2012
SAV: 65 degrees last set in 2012