Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCHS 100505
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
105 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND TOWARD THE COASTLINE FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS INLAND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR CLOSE TO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND WILL DISSIPATE BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON RADAR
IMAGERY AND THE LAND BREEZE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER ON COULD
SUPPORT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL WATERS.
THUS...POPS RAMP UP TO CHANCE THERE OVERNIGHT. OVER LAND...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT IN
GENERAL POPS SHOULD REMAIN LOW/LESS THAN 15 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR OR A
LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY...THE SEA BREEZE...AN INLAND TROUGH AND SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND CHANCE MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THINKING IS THAT DECENT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO
SLIGHTLY REDUCE RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IF THIS DOES NOT
OCCUR AS EXPECTED...LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO RAISE RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY.
WEAKER WIND FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN SLOW
MOVING STORMS THAT MAINLY WILL BE DRIVEN BY OUTFLOW/SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS. THIS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED AREAS OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS PERSIST. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
WILL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
THINKING IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST EACH DAY...WITH
UPPER 80S AT THE COAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S AT THE
COAST TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND STRONG RIDGING JUST TO THE SOUTH INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE INLAND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK ON
SUNDAY...THEN STEADILY STRENGTHEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE HIGH THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...SUPPORTING AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EACH
AFTERNOON AS TYPICAL SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. WILL ADVERTISE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE
30 TO NEAR 40 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...DIMINISHING
OVER LAND AREAS EACH EVENING/NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY
LITTLE THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S
AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO
COVER WITH CBS/VCTS WITHIN 06Z TAFS...AND WILL ASSESS
OPPORTUNITIES TO OFFER MORE PRECISE TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITHIN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THE WATERS WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE EAST AND A SURFACE TROUGH INLAND. S/SW WINDS
15-20 KT WILL VEER TOWARD THE W/SW AND WILL DECREASE TO 5-15 KT BY
DAYBREAK. SEAS RANGE FROM 2-4 FEET WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO 4-5
FT BEYOND 20 NM. THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALTER LOCAL WINDS OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL SHIFT FARTHER
OUT TO SEA BY THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS
PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN MORE SOLID SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOCTURNAL SURGES
UP TO 15 TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES DUE TO THE APPROACHING FULL MOON AND
ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE COULD RESULT IN MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...MTE
LONG TERM...MTE/WMS
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...MTE/SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






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