Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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169
FXUS62 KCHS 200222
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1022 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the region into early next
week as Hurricane Jose moves north toward the southern New
England coast later this week. Hurricane Maria will move near
the Bahamas this weekend before likely turning north just off
the Southeast U.S. coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Late this evening: No changes needed to the going forecast.
Previous discussion follows below.

The dry and seasonable weather pattern will linger into tonight
as high pressure holds firm. Most of the diurnal cumulus will
dissipate after midnight, yield mostly clear skies, but do
expect some increase in cirrus to occur early Wednesday. Lows
will range from the upper 60s well inland to the mid 70s at the
beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper ridging will begin to break down on Wednesday and
especially Thursday into Friday as a sharp upper trough
gradually cuts off across the Carolinas as Hurricane Jose moves
north closer to the New England coast. Could see a few isolated
showers/tstms develop across interior Southeast South Carolina
Wednesday afternoon, although instability will be marginal,
with more scattered activity developing ahead of the sea breeze
circulation Thursday and Friday afternoons when instability is
considerably greater. Highs will warm into the upper 80s to
lower 90s Wednesday and Thursday afternoons with mid-upper 80s
Friday afternoon. Lows will range from the upper 60s inland to
the mid 70s at the coast each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Inland high pressure will persist into early next week but the main
forecast concern is what will happen to Hurricane Maria which will
be near the Bahamas this weekend. Much will likely depend on what
happens to Jose which is expected to still be lingering off the
southern New England/Mid-Atlantic coast. Just too much uncertainty
at this point so everyone is encouraged to pay close attention to
the forecast later this week into early next week. Best, albeit
small, rain chances look to be near the coast Friday night into
Saturday, assuming Maria tracks well offshore. Temperatures look to
stay above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through 00z Thursday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: No significant concerns through Sun.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Winds will remain 10 kt or less with seas 1-3 ft
nearshore and 3-4 ft offshore.

Wednesday through Sunday: No significant concerns before swells from
Hurricane Maria nearing the southeast Bahamas later this week begin
to impact the waters Thursday night or Friday. Advisories will be
likely for the offshore waters starting Friday and the nearshore
waters starting Friday night. Seas could build to 10 feet or more
near the Gulf Stream Saturday night into Sunday but seas and winds
will be worse if Maria tracks closer to the area than currently
expected.

Rip Currents: Increasing astronomical influences and a very
minor lingering swell component from Jose will support another
moderate rip current risk at area beaches for Wednesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Much of the coast remains vulnerable in the wake of Irma with
many dune lines either completely washed away or severely
compromised. Even if the tide gages at Charleston Harbor and
Fort Pulaski fall short of shallow coastal flooding criteria,
some flooding problems are still likely with many of the natural
coastal protection systems compromised. Powerful swells from
Hurricanes Jose and Maria will also drive significant wave run-
up, which could cause further erosion. Thus, the potential for
shallow coastal flooding will persist into early next week
around the times of high tide, mainly the late day high tides,
and particularly along the SC coast.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH/ST
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...BSH/ST
MARINE...ST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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