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000
FXUS61 KCLE 292221
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
620 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING OUT
OF LOWER MI INTO NW OHIO THIS EVENING. HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THIS
MOVING CONVECTION ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NRN OHIO THROUGH THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...RUC DISSIPATES THIS CONVECTION IN NW PART OF THE AREA THEN
REDEVELOPS CONVECTION AROUND THE SNOWBELT BY MIDNIGHT WHICH THEN
CONTINUES IN NE OH/NW PA INTO WED MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
STRONG...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE NIGHT WHILE
BAND OF ACTIVITY SHIFTS INTO THE SNOWBELT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
INLAND AND MID 50S LAKESHORE LOOK FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW GOES NOWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS AND
TEMPS DO MODERATE ON BALANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH
THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT HOWEVER CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD DOMINATED BY
DIURNAL TRENDS BUT ENHANCED TOO BY SHORT WAVES AND SURFACE
FEATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. THIS FEATURE CURRENTLY IS NORTH OF THE
LAKE AND EXTENDS THROUGH SWRN ONTARIO AND MANITOBA WHERE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. EXPECT THIS TO GET INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WEDNESDAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN DIURNAL TRENDS. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WELL. TEMPS SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A PESKY UPPER LOW. THE WEEKEND WEATHER WILL
STILL FEATURE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS MOISTURE GETS DRAWN INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S./ATLANTIC...MORE SO
SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY. CHANCES WILL BE A BIT BETTER ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA...TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL AND AND THE FLOW WILL BE LESS
AMPLIFIED...ALMOST ZONAL FOR MID WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT REALLY
CHANGE MUCH AND IS NOT TOO COOL...ALREADY BEING MODIFIED...SO UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED. THE NEXT HINT OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGELY A VFR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS
LOWER MI WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN OH/NW PA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS MAY SPARK A SHOWER. HAVE REMOVED THE TS
MENTION. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER. WATERSPOUTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE LAKE STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS OF
035 TO 045 WILL COME AND GO WITH EACH TROUGH. CHANCES LOW FOR ANY
MVFR CEILINGS OR VSBY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
SUBTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST WITH EACH TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE AREA...ONE TONIGHT AND
ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER THURSDAY. WITH EACH ONE
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND BACK AGAIN.
WINDS TOP OUT AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH EACH TROUGH. THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WATERSPOUTS A POSSIBILITY
STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN