Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 261909
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
309 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front over the western Great Lakes will move across the
local area tomorrow. A second cold will move across the region
on Friday. High pressure will build over the area from the north
over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Just a few cumulus across the area this afternoon. Temps are
again warm but not as warm as the 18z CLE ob which went out by
error. The high so far has been 92 at CLE. Skies this evening
will be clear with some increase in mid level clouds toward
daybreak in the northwest. These clouds are associated with a
cold front currently over the western lakes. The front will move
east of the area by 18z. The airmass remains very dry so no
more than isolated showers are expected with the front and most
of these will be east of I-71 given the timing of the front.
Temps will be warmest in the south and east tomorrow. The past
few days we`ve been getting into the mid 80s by 10 am and that
will likely happen again tomorrow. The threat for showers will
be over by early evening. High pressure will briefly build over
the region Wednesday into Thursday. There will likely be some
clouds downwind of the lake but not expecting any precip. Temps
will get back to seasonable levels and guidance seems
reasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be rigging in from the west on Thu and should
keep conditions dry even though lake effect potential will be
increasing for the snowbelt, but think shra will hold off until
later Thu night.

The upper trough dives across the area late Fri and Fri night while
850 mb temps drop close to zero in NW PA by 12z Sat. This and wrap
moisture at 700 mb and below should allow for sct shra to occur for
the NE half of the cwa. Even where rain does occur, QPF will mostly
be light, a quarter inch or less, so the short term drought will
likely continue to get worse for most of the area.

Temps will trend cooler each day with highs by Sat only ranging from
the mid to upper 50s far NE to low to mid 60s in the SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level ridge will begin to build east across the eastern
United States over the weekend.  This will in turn cause surface
high pressure to build east across the Great Lakes over the weekend
into early next week.

A fast moving shortwave will move east across the area Monday night
into Tuesday.  Moisture associated with this feature will move east
across the area and timing places it over the region Tuesday.  With
day time heating, can`t rule out a few showers across the area so
will go with mostly slight chance 20 percent for the showers.

Another upper level ridge will build east over the area and become
much stronger than the one moving east over the area over the
weekend. So, summer has not quite ended just yet.

After cold air advection takes place over the weekend, warm air
advection will begin in earnest early next week with a gradual
warming trend expected. Highs will gradually warm from the 60s on
Sunday into the lower to middle 70s Monday and Tuesday.  Lows will
be in the 40s warming to around 50 by Tuesday morning in the warm
air advection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Quiet weather will continue. Just a few cumulus expected this
afternoon with mainly clear skies tonight. Some mid level clouds
will move over NW OH toward daybreak as a front approaches the
area. The front should be close to exiting the area by the end
of the TAF period. Onshore flow will continue at ERI and CLE
this afternoon with light SW flow most other places. Winds will
become W then NW behind the front tomorrow. No precip mention
needed.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Wednesday afternoon and again on
Friday in sct shra with a small chance of tsra.

&&

.MARINE...
Light south to Sw winds will turn NW on Wed with the passage of a
cold front then tend to run mostly 10 to 20 knots late Wed into Sat
before turning north then NE Sat into Sat night while diminishing to
10 knots or less. The high producing the light winds will shift into
New England by Sun night causing winds to veer to East then SE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...Adams


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