Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 080541
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
141 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO BY
TOMORROW MORNING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS OHIO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NEAR ERIE TO MARION AND
SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD. STILL A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH A FEW SPRINKLES NORTH OF THE FRONT. HAD TO ADD SOME LOW POPS
BACK TO THE WEST FOR A FEW HOURS. DRIER AIR IS ATTEMPTING TO SPILL
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO
DIP TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 60 ACROSS THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST PROBLEM FOR WEDNESDAY IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MOVE
BEFORE STALLING...THEN HOW QUICKLY IT WILL LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF NEXT
WAVE.   FOR NOW JUST LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THE SOUTH AND SERN
COUNTIES FOR TOMORROW.  MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE WAVE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE TRACK AND TIMING DIFFERS
SOMEWHAT.  ALL 3 MODELS TRACK THE LOW INTO CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.   THE NAM TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO.  FOR NOW WILL JUST CONTINUE LIKELY POPS FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PATTERN LOOKS WET THRU THE PERIOD AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT THEN DRIFTS BACK SOUTH AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SE INTO THE AREA AND STALLS SUN THRU
TUE. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA TO HANG AROUND EACH DAY THRU
TUE AND PROBABLY THRU ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN DOESN`T
CHANGE. TEMPS SHOULD STAY WITHING A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LOT OF CHANGES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS PRESENT SYSTEM
DEPARTS AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS EVENING. ALL TAF SITES AS
OF 0530Z ARE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AREAS OF DRIZZLE REMAIN ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD IFR. HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR NORTH WITH SOME
DRYING TRYING TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS LOWER MI AND NRN
IND. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THIS DRYING WILL MAKE IT IN TO THE
TAF SITES BEFORE HALTING FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CONTINUED IFR
PREDOMINATELY FOR MOST SITES THROUGH DAWN...WITH IMPROVEMENT
TAKING PLACE IN THE MORNING. NORTHERN SITES MAY BE VFR BY
AFTERNOON...WHILE SOUTHERN SITES MAY WAIT UNTIL CLOSER TO EVENING.
BUT THE BREAK OF VFR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE A WAVE ON THE
FRONT WILL BRING THE FRONT BACK NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO FOR
THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN SITES AS EARLY AS
MID/LATE EVENING ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL BE N TO NNE AROUND 10 KNOTS UNTIL LATER TODAY WHEN MOST WILL
GET UNDER 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. NON VFR
POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NW
THEN NORTH THRU EARLY TONIGHT THEN TO THE NE WED MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR WED NIGHT WILL DIMINISH THE WINDS. AFTER THAT
THE WINDS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AS A FRONT SOUTH OF THE LAKE SLOWLY
DRIFTS BACK NEAR THE LAKE TO HANG OUT AT LEAST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT LEADING TO
CHANGEABLE WINDS BUT THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS
UNCERTAIN. SINCE THE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...WINDS SHOULD
TEND TO STAY UNDER 15 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...ADAMS


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