Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 280159
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
959 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of lows will continue to move northeast across the region
through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Updated the PoPs to better reflect ongoing activity across the
area. A few light showers or sprinkles from near Cleveland to
the Akron-Canton area will continue to move northeast this
evening. Have mostly removed thunder chances for early tonight
except for a chance across extreme southern areas. A broad
swath of showers south of the CWA will move into the area from
southwest to northeast from late this evening into tonight.

Previous discussion...
The next in a series of lows will track up the Ohio valley tonight
spreading another round of fairly widespread shra over the cwa.
Think most of the area will see measurable rainfall but the far nw
has a chance to be missed. There could be some thunder for mainly
the south half since the low will be tracking across the southern
part of the state keeping the more unstable air further to the south.

The track of the low will cause winds to turn off of lake erie,
drawing colder air south into the area as the night progresses so
lows near the lake will likely be getting close to 40 by daybreak
Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The models differ a little but in general the rain should be exiting
off to the ESE by midday Tue but the clouds will be slow to move out
until the high to the nw pushes enough drier air in late in the day
and Tue night. Thus, the northerly flow off of lake erie and the
clouds will make for a cool day with highs near the lake likely to
not get out of the 40s.

The high ridging south into the cwa should provide dry but cool
conditions Tue night thru Wed night then the next low in the series
will head into the area Thu night. Rain from this system should
spread ne across the cwa Thu and Thu night. The models differ on the
track of the low but if a more southern track occurs then winds will
stay ne off of lake erie keeping temps below normal near the lake.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Progressive pattern continues into the extended forecast. The first
system currently over California as a trough will be cut off over
the 4 corners region. It will pick up some Gulf moisture as it
strengthens and moves northeast over the Tennessee Valley. High
pressure over Quebec will slow the progression of the system,
dragging out the duration of rainfall as an stationary front
meanders somewhere near Lake Erie. At this time believe the rainfall
amounts will not produce flooding, but will have to monitor as
ground conditions continue to saturate. The low will deepen as it
reaches the east coast with some low level wrap around moisture
lingering over the lakes. Despite this temperatures will remain mild
as the flow aloft remains zonal with little cold air advection.
Sunday will be a transition day as the next system approaches from
the west. There remains position and timing differences on either
Sunday Night or Monday. Overall temperatures will remain mild with
highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Low level moisture will increase overnight as low pressure
located over southern Illinois at 00Z moves across southern
Ohio. Already seeing some very light rain well ahead of low
moving across western and central Ohio. This will do little more
than increase the low level moisture a bit faster. Expect to see
some MVFR ceilings develop from south to north after 03Z. IFR
conditions will likely develop as the heavier rainfall moves
into the area near or shortly after 08z. Conditions will slowly
improve from southwest to northeast on Tuesday with some VFR
possible across NW Ohio around 21z.

Winds will be light for a period this evening but should become
northeast to north at all locations. Winds will remain under 12
knots.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR developing again on Thursday and continuing
into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
An area of low pressure over Quebec will lift away from the area
overnight. However a secondary low over the southern plains will
lift north into the Ohio Valley overnight. This feature will remain
south of the lake which will switch the winds around to the
northeast. Winds will be strongest over the western basin around 10
to 15 knots, insufficient even with fetch waves to produce small
craft advisory levels. A second low will move up from the Tennessee
Valley. This feature combined with an area of high pressure
extending east of the lake will increase northeast winds to around
20 knots. This combined with fetch could produce 4 foot waves or
greater.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Adams
NEAR TERM...Adams/Mottice
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM...Jamison
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...Jamison


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