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000
FXUS61 KCLE 231919
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
319 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT US
OVER THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THE MODELS SEEM TO DECREASE THE CLOUDS TOO QUICKLY. THEY SHOULD
DECREASE BUT NOT THAT FAST BASED ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THE
TROF ALOFT. WENT TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITH SOME
CLOUDS AND OF COURSE WARMER NEAR THE LAKESHORE WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SOME CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.  OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE SOME CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP. IT WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WENT TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE EAST BY SATURDAY AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS IN SHOWERS OVER EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER. CHANCE POPS
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MOISTURE IS NOT REAL HIGH TO GO
MORE THAN CHANCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND WITH MOISTURE FIELDS ON SUN SO NOT
SURE WHETHER DRY PUNCH WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA OR NOT. WILL KEEP
GOOD CHANCE POPS GOING SUN AND AGAIN ON MON MON WITH WRAP MOISTURE
AND UPPER S/W ACTING TO SHARPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. DRIER
AIR IS SHOWN MOVING OVER THE AREA BY TUE BUT WILL HANG ON TO SMALL
CHANCE POPS DUE TO UPPER TROUGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOWBELT. THE
NEXT S/W HELPING TO HOLD THE MAIN TROUGH IN POSITION DIVES SE TOWARD
THE AREA WITH THE MODELS SHOWING INCREASING MOISTURE SO WILL UP POPS
MORE FOR WED.

TEMPS WILL BE FALLING BELOW NORMAL BY MON AND SHOULD BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL TUE AND WED AS COOL AIR WITH THE UPPER LOW STAYS OVER THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE INLAND TAF SITES.
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH PATCHY LIGHT RA
WILL ALSO BE DRIFTING SOUTH. DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTH
INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING HELPING CIGS TO SCATTER OUT AT TOL AND
PROBABLY FDY. THE REST OF THE AREA MAY HANG ON TO BKN CIGS THRU THE
NIGHT AND THU MORNING. ERI AND CLE SHOULD SEE SCT CLOUDS BY MIDDAY
THU. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL SETTLE DOWN AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT THRU MON.

&&

.MARINE...
STILL LOOKS LIKE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS
NORTH WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS LEADING TO 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER THU SO WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING TO BE
LIGHT THU NIGHT AND FRI THEN A SOUTH FLOW WILL SET UP FOR SAT AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE MODELS DIFFER SOME SAT NIGHT AND SUN
BUT IN GENERAL A LOW SHOULD MOVE THRU THE LAKES TO BE NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO BY MON AFTERNOON. THUS SHOULD SEE WINDS GRADUALLY VEER FROM
SOUTH TO WEST DURING THIS PERIOD INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS MON AS
COOLER AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS