Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 301647
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1247 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE TO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY
THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THEN
SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY AND STRENGTHEN BEFORE
MOVING NORTH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND INTO VIRGINIA BY MONDAY
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE EAST INTO OHIO BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE SHIFTING EAST AS
THE FLOW BACKS AND THE WEAK RIDGE BUILD IN. WILL LEAVE A MENTION
IN ASHTABULA COUNTY AS WELL AS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS FROM THE WEST ARE ERODING BUT IT WILL GET
CLOUDY IN THE TOLEDO AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BROKEN
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ELSEWHERE. NUDGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND TOLEDO (UPPER 40S) WITH LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME SUNSHINE EXCEPT UPPER 40S IN THE
SNOWBELT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE AREA AND CUTOFF AS IT
CONTINUES TO DIVE INTO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES SE ACROSS THE EAST PART OF THE
CWA FRI BEFORE THE ENERGY SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY.

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
THRU FRI. THE SITUATION FRI NIGHT WILL BECOME MORE TRICKY AS THE
RACE WILL BE ON AS TO WHETHER THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF BEFORE COLD
ENOUGH AIR ARRIVES TO CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW. THE LATEST MODEL RUN
SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT TEMPS ALOFT ONLY BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR
POSSIBLE SNOW IN THE WEST LATER FRI NIGHT BUT BY THEN THE PRECIP
SHOULD BE TAPERING DOWN SO PROBABLY WILL ONLY SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOW AND MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS.

EVEN ON SAT WITH 850 MB TEMPS HANGING AROUND MINUS 3 AND SURFACE
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP CAN
BE SNOW AND WHETHER IT CAN ACCUMULATE MUCH. THUS SEE A SIMILAR
SITUATION TO FRI NIGHT WITH QUESTIONABLE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR
MOSTLY THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA OF AN INCH OR LESS AND MAINLY ON
GRASSY AREAS. BOUNDARY TEMPS GET COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW SAT
NIGHT BUT BY THEN THE REMAINING PRECIP IN THE EAST SHOULD BE
TAPERING OFF AS THE SUPPORTING MOISTURE GETS PULLED ESE OF THE AREA.

ON SUN...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS OHIO. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING
FLURRY OR SPRINKLE IN THE MORNING IN NW PA...OTHERWISE SUN SHOULD BE
A DRY DAY ALONG WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
MODERATE FURTHER INTO THE 40S.

SOME CONCERN THAT SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION RAIN COULD DEVELOP SUN
NIGHT BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS OCCURRING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE ACROSS NW OHIO AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO
CONTINUE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

LOWS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES AS LONG AS CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA THROUGH LATE MORNING. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN EAST OF A LINE FROM KCLE TO KCAK WITH THE
SHOWERS. ALL LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR BY MID AFTERNOON WITH MIDDLE
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE LAKE WILL BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY GET SHOVED EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW
WILL DEEPEN AS IT SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD LAKE ERIE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ANTICIPATED ON ITS WEST
SIDE. ONE THING THAT MAY KEEP WINDS FROM REACHING GALES IS THE LACK
OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION MAY NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH
WILL BE AFTER THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE PASSED. WE WILL STILL NEED TO
RAMP UP WINDS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT WANT TO GO
WITH A GALE WATCH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE A DEFINITE WITH THEM
BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE LAKE BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHTER
WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN






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