Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 120835
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
335 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST TODAY DRAGGING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TOWARD EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
WILL MOVE TO OHIO BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH GOING ON AT THE MOMENT AS MOST OF THE LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY REMAINS OVER LAKE ERIE AND IS HEADING UP TOWARD BUF`S
AREA. HAVE SEEN SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ALONG THE
EASTERN LAKESHORE BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. THAT
WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE MORNING HOURS WITH SOME FLURRIES OR
BURSTS OF SNOW UP TOWARD ERIE AND VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
ELSEWHERE. TEMPS ALSO VARY CONSIDERABLY AND THIS FORECASTER SAW
MINUS 11 ON THE WAY IN SO IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE GETTING OFF TO
A VERY COLD START. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW
GUIDANCE. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER IN THE DAY.
EXPECT AN AREA OF SNOW TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MOST OF
THIS SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST CHANCE POPS EVEN IN THE WEST.
EXPECTING A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW MOST AREAS WITH
PERHAPS AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IT`S GOING TO FEEL LIKE LAST FEBRUARY THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AS VERY COLD AIR DESCENDS ON THE
REGION. WILL SEE DECENT MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE FOR A FEW
HOURS TONIGHT WITH A LAKE HURON FETCH ALSO POSSIBLY GETTING SET
UP. A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS AS WE
ALWAYS SEEM TO FOCUS MORE ON INSTABILITY THAN MOISTURE. ONE THING
IS FOR SURE...THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING OUT ON SATURDAY
SO SNOW TOTALS TONIGHT WILL REALLY DICTATE HOW WELL THIS EVENT
PANS OUT. RESIDENCE TIMES WILL ALSO BE SHORT BECAUSE OF THE STRONG
NW FLOW. HOWEVER...THE FETCH WILL BE IDEAL FOR TAKING ADVANTAGE OF
THE TOPOGRAPHY AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A
WARNING. HAVE ALSO GONE AHEAD AND PUT UP A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WILL MENTION DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN
THE LAKE EFFECT WARNING AS WELL. ON SATURDAY THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION WILL BE ON THE GROUND SO DO NOT EXPECT THE SNOW GROWTH TO
BE VERY EFFICIENT AND THUS ACCUMS SHOULDN`T BE AS GREAT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND THE LAKE
EFFECT SHOULD END SATURDAY EVENING.

FRIGID TEMPS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH SUBZERO LOWS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. COULD GET CLOSE TO RECORDS
AT A COUPLE SITES ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY ITSELF SHOULD BE QUIET WEATHER
WISE AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. STILL SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT`S
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE AREA WILL SEE
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN ALL
AREAS.

HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  BOTH MODELS NOT TRACK THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING.   FOR NOW
WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS AS STILL SOME DOUBT AS TO
PRECISE TRACK.  BOTH MODELS TRACK THE LOW INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS EASTERN LAKES.  MODELS MOVE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  AS IT DOES SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY END FROM THE WEST.   DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS BY END OF
EXTENDED PERIOD.   MODELS CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH TRACKS SLOWLY EAST AND
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY...SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT
ERI AT TIMES INTO FRI MORNING. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP SE
ACROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT BUT THE MORE INTENSE AND
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL JUST BE IN THE SNOWBELT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD MAINLY DROP TO MVFR AS THE FRONT DROPS THRU AND REMAIN MVFR
WELL INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVEMENT STARTS TO TAKE PLACE AT TOL
AND FDY. VSBY`S WILL DROP TO IFR AT TIMES IN THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER
NE OH AND NW PA LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY FOR MAINLY THE SNOWBELT
THEN MORE OF A WIDESPREAD THREAT ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
COASTAL LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS NOT TRACK THE LOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY
EVENING. FOR NOW WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS AS STILL SOME
DOUBT AS TO PRECISE TRACK. BOTH MODELS TRACK THE LOW INTO QUEBEC
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS EASTERN LAKES. MODELS MOVE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AS IT
DOES SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE WEST. DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS BY END OF EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGH TRACKS SLOWLY EAST AND MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY...SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR OHZ003-006>013-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...DJB


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