Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 141500
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1000 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Clipper storm system will be east of the area early this
morning. This will allow a weak area of high pressure to move
across the region this afternoon. THe next clipper will cross
the region Friday into Friday night then lake effect snow
lingering across northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania into
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Multiple bands setting up at this time from eastern Erie county
in Ohio east across north central Ohio. The whole package will
shift slowly east through the day as the wind flow shifts around
to a westerly direction tonight. Snow should be mostly light
with little if any accumulation. Made minor adjustments to
precipitation and temperatures for today.

Previous Discussion...
Just waiting on the last of the snow to decrease and move
eastward through 12Z. The expectation is that we will be able to
cancel most of the warning and advisory by 12Z. Will monitor
the band off the lake as it drifts eastward in the wake of the
clipper. At most another inch or 2 of snow at a few locations.

We then get a weak area of high pressure into the area this
afternoon with any remaining lake snow shifting back into
western NY by midnight. Currently it does not look like it will
become all that organized so significant accumulations look
unlikely. However as always the case with west to southwest flow
we will need to monitor locations in the vicinity of Northeast,
PA.

The next clipper will move toward the area on Friday with snow
chances increasing Friday afternoon into the evening. This low
will track further to the north across Ontario so lighter
accumulations are anticipated. Worst case scenario brings the
snowbelt an advisory.

Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages today into
Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The latest arctic surge behind the latest clipper will produce lake
enhanced that will taper down by Sat. However, a band of warm
advection snow is expected to develop over the snowbelt for Sat then
should dissipate into Sat night as drier air pushes in from the
southwest. Accumulation looks to range from 2 to 5 inches in Erie co
PA Fri night tapering down to little or none southwest of a LPR to
CAK line. On Sat, the accumulation in the snowbelt will range from
little to around an inch in NW PA.

Below normal temps Fri night into Sat will start to moderate some by
Sat night as the warm advection starts to occur at the surface.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The models briefly show the upper trough that has dominated the area
becoming more zonal and progressive for the period but also have
differences. Thus, not confident in how things will play out as
weaker s/w troughs move across the region affecting the timing of
precip. Temps Sun and Mon are borderline for either rain or snow. So
due to the marginally cold enough temps and weak system, don`t see
much accumulation if mostly snow occurs. Model consensus shows
enough colder air moving in Tue into Tue night to change all precip
to snow for mainly just lake effect snow showers Tue night and
Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Low pressure was located just to the south of Cleveland and
will continue to move eastward through the overnight. The
trailing cold front as of 0530Z was located from Sandusky to
Mount Vernon. All the IFR snowfall was generally located from
the Central Highlands to western PA. Expect this area of snow to
quickly move eastward through 12Z with MVFR ceilings in its
wake. Will have to monitor for some lake effect snow in the wake
of the low but confidence in this developing is low. Ceilings
will improve through the day with all locations becoming low
end VFR by evening.

Winds are south to southeast ahead of the low but quickly snap
around to the north and northwest in its wake. Ther have been
some stronger wind gusts across from Findlay to Mansfield but
believe these gusts to 35 knots will quickly move eastward and
should only impact KCAK through about 08z. Winds will decrease
through the afternoon then gradually shift to the west.

OUTLOOK...MVFR possible Friday and Friday night across the area
and again Sunday night into Monday in wintry precipitation.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong high pressure will continue to build over the lower lakes
today. Wind observations from the area late this morning showed
sustained speeds of 15 knots or less, which should support waves
under 4 feet. Winds will lessen through the afternoon. The next
clipper will move across the lakes Fri into Fri night with SW
winds becoming WNW while increasing to 20 to 30 knots. Winds
will diminish Sat but wind direction a little uncertain as a
front sets up near the lake by Sat evening and hangs there thru
Sun. Will stay with superblend guidance which show mostly a
south wind Sat night and Sun turning SW then West Sun night thru
Mon as a weak cold front is expected to push east thru the
lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Lombardy/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM...Adams
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...Adams/Jamison



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