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000
FXUS61 KCLE 242331
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
731 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER OKLAHOMA WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THEN A COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY PUSHED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT BUILDS SOUTH INTO LAKE ERIE BY SATURDAY EVENING. A THE
RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND STALL FOR THE WHOLE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING EAST INTO
WESTERN OHIO AT THIS TIME. THE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE NOTHING MORE
THAN SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER. THERE IS A LOT OF
VERY DRY AIR FOR THE SHOWERS TO OVER COME AS IT MOVES EAST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT TIMING OF LATER
THIS EVENING FOR THE ONSET EVEN THOUGH WE MAY HAVE A FEW SPRINKLES
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP SLOWLY AFTER
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN NY BY 00Z FRI EVE
SO EXPECT ONLY NW PA TO HAVE A THREAT FOR SHRA BY 00Z FRI EVE. A
LITTLE THUNDER MAY OCCUR WITH THE SHRA DUE TO THE STRONG UPPER
DYNAMICS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL HAVE A
LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY.

WEAK RIDGING MOVES IN FRI NIGHT BUT THE MOISTURE DOES NOT COMPLETELY
FLUSH OUT AND BY THE END OF THE NIGHT A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TO BE
AROUND LAKE ERIE. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHRA FOR MAINLY THE
SECOND HALF OF FRI NIGHT.

THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH THRU THE CWA SAT THEN STALLS NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. EXPECTING SCT SHRA TO
OCCUR SAT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS SE INTO
THE AREA SAT EVE AND SHOULD BRING ENOUGH DRIER AIR AT LOWER LEVELS
TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY SAT NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE MARGINAL IN
THE SW COUNTIES FOR SOME POSSIBLE SPRINKLES...AND ALSO IN THE
EXTREME NE FOR A FEW LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES.

AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN SETS UP LATER SUN THRU MON AS THE CUTOFF
UPPER AND SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS STARTS TO SEEK ITS WAY
TOWARD OHIO. WILL STAY WITH THE PLAN TO RAMP UP THE THREAT FOR SHRA
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT.

THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SAT AND SUN SHOULD MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL
BY MON AS WARMER AIR IS PUSHED NORTH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS TUESDAY WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING UPPER
LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE AREA WITH A SURFACE LOW IN THE IOWA AREA.
WPS SHOWS THE LOW A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI.
OVER THE COURSE THE DAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE
MODELS KEEP THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST BASICALLY ROTATING IT THROUGH
ILLINOIS...INDIANA...MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN.  THIS DIFFERS FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH BROUGHT THE LOW CENTER TO NRN OHIO/LOWER MI
REGION. THE NEW MODELS THEREFORE WOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY MILDER
SOLUTION VS THE LOW BASICALLY OVERHEAD. STILL...IT LOOKS FAIRLY
CLOUDY AND WET WHICH WILL KEEP A LID ON TEMPS.  FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH DECENT
CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. A LINE OF SHOWERS IS SHOWING
UP ON RADAR BUT GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 20S THIS IS PROBABLY NO
MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. THE MAIN SHOW WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS REACHING THE SW END OF THE AREA BY 12Z. TILL THEN
EXPECT GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS. THE PRECIP SHOULD REACH NW PA BY
18Z. AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE RAIN BEGINS VSBYS AND CIGS WILL DIP
TO MVFR. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY THUNDER BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE
TO SEE IF DEWPOINTS COME UP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT T. EASTERLY FLOW
WILL BECOME SE OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE. THE FLOW WILL THEN BECOME S AND
THEN SW TO W AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST. EXPECT SPEEDS
TO COME UP FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY BY 12Z AND
TO 30 KNOTS AFTER 18Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE AT THE MOMENT BUT THE WESTERN BASIN SHOULD
BE CHOPPY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN THE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO TO NEAR
BUFFALO BY EVENING. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE
LOW SHIFTING WEST FRIDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT FOR
WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS AND RESULTANT WAVES. SATURDAY WINDS
TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND A TRAILING COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY TURNING
WINDS NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK