Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 230832
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
432 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A broad area of low pressure across the lower Great Lakes will
linger into early Monday. High pressure will then be able to
build across the region and bring lower humidity for the first
part of the new work week. The next cold front arriving from the
Upper Midwest and across the Great Lakes crosses the local area
on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
One more sticky day on tap with dewpoints continuing to reach
into the lower 70s with scattered showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon.

A weak low across eastern Ohio waters of Lake erie can be made
out with a cold front back toward Findlay and a warm front into
northwest PA. A few showers have continued to develop across
northwest PA through the night. Elsewhere pockets of lower
stratus has developed and will lead to a mostly cloudy start to
the day and a plentiful cumulus field early this afternoon.
This front will be one feature that will spark some
thunderstorms this afternoon across the Mahoning Valley and
central Highlands but also become more diffuse and difficult to
pick out with time. A shortwave across MN/Lake Superior will
shift across the Great Lakes and aid in taking an ill-defined
surface trough across the area this evening. This will be
another focus for convection. There is a several hour window
during peak heating where instability and shear should be just
enough to produce a few robust thunderstorms. SPC has broad
slight risk area to cover the wind gust threat. Highs today in
the 80s. Low tonight drop back into the 60s for nearly everyone.

One last trough crosses the area early Monday with a few
isolated/scattered showers with it early. But as the day
progresses, high pressure from the central lakes builds in and
the trough aloft pulls away. Cooler and with noticeably less
humidity with highs generally in the upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will drift off to the east on Tuesday.
Winds will likely remain from the east. A patch of cirrus may
brush the area otherwise it should be sunny with a few cosmetic
cumulus. High temperatures should average 75 to 80, a few
degrees below normal, with dew points in the 50s and comfortable
humidity.

Winds will come around from the south on Wednesday ahead of the
next front. It does not take long to warm up this time of year and
the forecast will be a degree or two warmer than most guidance with
forecast highs generally in the mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
There is still some uncertainty on the timing of the next front.
A few of the models hint at a weak wave on the front which will
slow the progress. Will have a 40-60 pop in the forecast for
Thursday. The blended guidance has the winds coming around from the
northwest by late afternoon. I am not convinced the front will be
that quick, especially if there may be wave. Will keep a chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast into Thursday night,
mainly east of I- 71.

Surface high pressure should build in from the west late in the week
although the trough aloft is progged to hang back across the Great
Lakes and northeast states. Occasionally this pattern can generate
a few rogue showers/thunderstorms if we cannot get the dewpoints
down. Will be optimistic at this time with a dry forecast by the
weekend and temperatures a few degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Most of the terminals will fill in with a mix of MVFR/IFR cigs
and vsbys for the remainder of the overnight before beginning to
mix and lift out Sunday morning into a healthy cumulus field.
Scattered thunderstorms to develop across the area focused on
peak heating. CAK/YNG still have the weak front as a source of
lift and then late in the afternoon upper support arrives from
the central Great Lakes.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in early morning fog/mist may continue during
the first half of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Light northwest winds on western Lake Erie and light northeast winds
on eastern Lake Erie will transition to a mainly west to southwest
flow today ahead of a cold front dropping across the Great Lakes.
A series of weak surface troughs and weak fronts will cross he lake
today and Monday and mariners will have to remain alert for
thunderstorms. High pressure will finally build across the lake
Monday night into Tuesday. There will be a period of somewhat
stronger winds from monday evening into Tuesday morning as the
surface high builds across the lake. It is expected that winds and
waves will stay below small craft advisory criteria but it may be
close to small craft advisory conditions.

Winds will back to a more southerly direction Tuesday night and
then south to southwest Wednesday ahead of the next cold front.
The next front should drop across the lake on Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Oudeman
NEAR TERM...Oudeman
SHORT TERM...Kosarik
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...Kosarik



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