Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 301728 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1128 AM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Current watervapor satellite loop shows the major spring storm
moving northeast into western Oklahoma and central Kansas early
this morning, with heavy snowfall over SE Colorado and western
Kansas today. This storm will move northeast today, but the
precipitation shield is expected to remain to the southeast of the
I-80 corridor across western Nebraska. Kept POP near 10 percent
in this area for some sprinkles and flurry activity, but do not
expect anything major. As the surface low intensifies across the
plains, very windy conditions are expected across the far eastern
Wyoming plains and most of western Nebraska this afternoon where
gusts may approach 45 to 50 MPH at times before diminishing this
evening. Otherwise, a weak shortwave ridge over eastern Wyoming
extending northeast into the western Dakotas, will keep the
weather dry today with mostly clear skies.

Cool Temperatures will remain with us through Monday as north to
northwest flow will continue through Monday. The only minor
concern will be an upper level disturbance forecast to push across
eastern Wyoming on Monday as some jet energy digs southward across
the high plains. Believe there is enough jet dynamics and llvl
instability to produce widely scattered rain showers beginning as
early as mid Monday morning, and lasting through the evening
hours. Rain may mix with and change to snow down to 5500-6500
feet, especially in the heavier showers due to 700mb temperatures
between -4c to -5c. This activity is expected to quickly diminish
after sunset Monday as a stronger disturbance digs southward out
of Canada late Monday night. Daytime temperatures will not rebound
much on Monday with highs generally in the upper 40`s to upper

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday

A fast moving upper-level shortwave diving southeast across the CWA
on Tuesday will contribute to unsettled weather conditions early in
the extended forecast period. 700 mb temperatures falling to -4 deg
C or colder by 06z Wed suggests potential for accumulating snowfall
in the mountains, but at this time would not expect this to require
any winter headlines. The models are in good agreement w/a building
upper-level ridge over much of the western CONUS from Thursday thru
Saturday. A warming trend will commence w/ dry conditions likely.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday morning)
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the period across southeast
Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle though some patchy MVFR
cigs may reach KRWL early Monday morning. Gusty winds through this
afternoon over most terminals but diminishing early this evening.


Issued at 253 AM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

No Fire Weather concerns this week due to recent precipitation, cool
temperatures, and high relative humidities. The next chance for rain
and snow will be late Monday through Tuesday night as an upper level
disturbance moves across the area. Drier and warmer weather is
expected by Friday and Saturday with afternoon min relative
humidities trending lower between 20 to 30 percent.





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