Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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069
FXUS65 KCYS 290410
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1010 PM MDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 914 PM MDT Sat May 28 2016

Recent radar trends indicated an overall decrease in coverage and
intensity of convection this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Sat May 28 2016

Some showers and storms moving east across mainly the northern
parts of the CWA this afternoon but low shear and modest
instability keeping them fairly benign. Expect this activity to
diminish this evening as the boundary layer cools and instability
falls off.

No major changes in the overall weather pattern seen across the
area through Monday with a weak upper low over moving slowly east
over the desert SW and a stronger upper low that should move to
the Montana/southern Canadian border on Monday. Weak impulses
will move across the CWA in a generally westerly upper flow and
combine with instability to produce scattered mainly afternoon and
evening convection. Somewhat better shear and instability expected
across the northern parts of the CWA Monday as the upper low moves
a little closer so some stronger storms a better bet on that day
in that area. Otherwise temperatures seasonal over the next couple
days.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday Night)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Sat May 28 2016

Models remain in agreement with swinging an upper level trough
across the high plains on Tuesday and Tuesday night, while surface
high pressure builds in from the west. The attendant cold front
is expected to be through our forecast area to the south by
Tuesday morning, so forcing for any ascent will be focused along
the Laramie Range and higher mountain peaks in upslope flow, and
where best instability will occur with cooler air aloft. High
pressure at the surface and a building ridge overhead will limit
convection for Wednesday although there remains a low chance for a
weak shower/storm over the higher peaks. Similar conditions will
persist for Thursday and Friday, while temps warm with the upper
ridge moving overhead. Could begin to see an increase in snowmelt
at this time, thus will have to monitor rivers closely for
potential rises.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1007 PM MDT Sat May 28 2016

VFR prevails. Localized IFR and MVFR at Alliance, Chadron and
Scottsbluff from 08z to 14z in fog and low clouds. Isolated
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening, mainly over southeast
Wyoming in the afternoon and over western Nebraska in the evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 PM MDT Sat May 28 2016

Fire weather concerns to remain low into the early part of next
week with non-critical conditions continuing. There will be
widely scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms into early next week with wetting rains from some of
these.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 249 PM MDT Sat May 28 2016

The North Platte and Laramie Rivers will continue to run high,
but should remain steady or slowly recede over the next couple of
days with relatively steady reservoir releases and reduced
snowmelt from cool mountain temperatures. Warmer temperatures
next week will begin to increase snow melt again, so rivers will
be on the rise.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAJ
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RE
HYDROLOGY...RJM/MAJ



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