Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 240105
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
805 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO THE ST. CLOUD AREA AND SHOULD REACH
THE SW CORNER OF THE FA EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. ATMOSPHERE
IS DRY AND IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO
REACH THE SFC. REGARDLESS...HAVE ADDED POPS A BIT SOONER. ALSO
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER AS MOST OF THE FA HAS ALREADY BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY. OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

A SHORT WAVE/CLOSED H50 LOW CURRENTLY TRACKING INTO WESTERN MN
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CARRYING BROAD BRUSH 20/30 POPS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING AS
THE WAVE BRINGS PWATS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AND SUFFICIENT FORCING
TO PRODUCE SPOTTY SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
ALONG THE BORDERLAND WED AHEAD OF THE MAIN VORT MAX. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLD QUARTER INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

AN EXITING MID LVL TROF WILL KEEP LINGERING LOW POPS OVER MN
ARROWHEAD AND NWRN WISC WED NIGHT BEFORE A DRY SPELL DEVELOPS. AN
ANOMALOUS MID LVL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND SHIFT
EAST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL AT THE SFC.  THE SFC HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE ERN
GT LAKES BY FRIDAY ALLOWING A BDRY LYR WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO
OCCUR. ENOUGH ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE LOW LVL FLOW THAT DONT
EXPECT ANY SERIOUS LOW LEVEL MSTR TRANSPORT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION/DEVELOPMENT OF CLOSED MID LVL LOW OVER
CALIFORNIA MAINTAINS INTEGRITY AND ANOMALOUS NATURE OF MID LVL RIDGE
OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. MDLS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
THAT MID LVL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ACROSS CTRL/ERN CANADA BY LATE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY ALLOW A SFC FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE NRN PART OF THE CWA SUNDAY. WILL CARRY A SLGT CHC OF RAIN LATE
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS NRN MN ZONES...PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS
TWIN PORTS AND SOUTH SHORE. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MED
RANGE MDL SUITE AS THE ECM/GEM SUPPORT THEE BDRY REMAINING NORTH OF
THE CWA WHILE THE GFS SLIDES THE BDRY SOUTH INTO THE SRN CWA BY
SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE CLIMO MOST OF
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VFR AT THE OUTSET. BRING VCSH TO BRD BY 05Z AS SHOWERS IN SW MN
ATTM. PREDOMINATE -RA AT BRD AT 08Z. VCSH BEGINNING AT 09Z AT
HIB/INL/BRD AND HYR AT 12Z. SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN THE VCNTY OF THE
SHOWERS. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS FORECAST AFTER 21Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  68  54  69 /  10  20  10   0
INL  53  66  54  74 /  20  30  10   0
BRD  56  68  55  74 /  30  20  10   0
HYR  53  69  53  73 /  10  30  20  10
ASX  52  69  54  71 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...GSF






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