Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 011149
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
649 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

And here comes the rain. The quite, hot and humid weather of the
past couple of days comes to an end early this morning as the region
looks to be entering another period of on-again-off-again rain
chances that will persist through the holiday weekend. Looking at
water vapor imagery this morning a northwest flow is noted across the
center of the Nation with numerous shortwave troughs noted in the
prevailing westerly jet. Of interest for this morning is the trough
sliding southeast across the Dakotas and Nebraska. The resulting nocturnal
jet leading this trough has started to expand storm coverage from a
modest line of showers that resided in the northwest flow through the
daylight hours of Tuesday. Southwest orientation of the nocturnal jet
is providing the storms will both effective inflow, as the storms
track southeast, and organizing shear across western Missouri. This
has enabled storms to quickly develop into strong thunderstorms
resulting in some large hail and severe winds early this morning
across west central Missouri.

This mornings storms will continue to fill in across northern
Missouri and eastern Kansas as the low level jet keeps the moisture
feed going. Radar trends look to reinforce this idea as upstream
observations show an expanding area storms sliding southeast from
Nebraska into Missouri and Kansas. However, as the atmosphere becomes
increasingly worked over early this morning our severe threat should
diminish, but will be replaced with a threat for torrential rain and
flash flooding.

The environment early this morning is one primed for heavy rain as
precipitable water values are around 1.8", but when you add in the
expected track of the storms --they track southeast with a southwest
jet feeding in on the west side-- and what you get is a good chance
that any storms that develop will be able to put down vast amounts
of water. Indications from observations across Kansas City, as the
storms developed, showed rainfall rates of over 4" per hour from the
strongest storms. On the up side, the storms are progressive enough
that no one storm, producing that kind of prodigious rain, is
sitting in one location; though we still expect flash flooding to be
an issue given the still saturated ground. As a result, plan on
keeping the going flash flood watch as is as follow on rain looks to
affect central Missouri the most.

Otherwise for today, expect the unfettered moisture feed to keep
convection going across our region through the morning hours. This
should allow for the development of a convective complex that will
track into southeastern Missouri later this morning. However, we do
expect storms to continue to percolate through the morning hours
across northwest Missouri and eastern Kansas as the jet induced by
the Dakotas trough does not look to ever mix out or veer off till
perhaps the afternoon hours, and even then it looks to quickly
reestablish itself this evening as a secondary trough zips into the
northern Plains which could help storms redevelop tonight. Best
potential for more storms tonight looks to be in central Missouri.

An then the parade of storms continues. Models persist in
advertising an almost daily chance of storms as a dirty northwest
flow remains over the Plains States through the weekend. However,
there is a bit of hope that there will be a bit of a break in the
storm chances through the day Saturday and into Saturday night.
While the storm chances are not zero, they are looking sufficiently
small enough to provide everyone with hope that the 4th will be rain
free around Kansas City. Additionally, temperatures through the next
week will remain rather nice for early July with highs staying in the
80s for most locations over the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 642 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to waft across the
terminals this morning as storms keep developing in the northwest
flow and shifting southeast across the Kansas-Missouri border. Expect
a break in the activity as we transit the late morning and afternoon
hours, but more storms may develop later this afternoon in the
vicinity of the Kansas-Missouri border. Current expectations are for
storms to bubble up in and around Kansas City and to affect points
south late this afternoon and/or early this evening. Otherwise,
expect winds to remain generally from the east as a surface low
develops across eastern Kansas today.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ030>033-
     038>040-044>046-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter





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