Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 172119
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
319 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at |319 PM CST SAT FEB 17 2018

Conditions have dried out this afternoon and sunny skies have allow
temperatures to rise into the 40s to lower 50s. The dry conditions
will continue through tomorrow as strong WAA will get underway.
Expect breezy southerly winds tomorrow between 15 to 25 mph with
gusts to 35 mph allowing temperatures to rise into the mid 50s to
lower 60s. This will also lead to an elevated fire danger for
tomorrow although RH values will remain high enough to keep from
reach critical thresholds. However, burning is not recommended.

An active pattern looks to set up for the end of the weekend
into the first half of the work week. The main forecast driver will
be a upper level trough that will begin to dig south into the
Rockies tomorrow forcing a cold front towards the area. WAA showers
are expected out ahead of this cold front Sunday night into Monday.
Thunder can not be ruled out with these warm advection showers as
MUCAPE values of 300-500J/Kg from Sunday night into Monday may
provide enough instability for storms. The upper level trough will
slowly move eastward through the Rockies Monday. This will force the
aforementioned cold front slowly into the area on Monday and may
provide additional forcing for storms during the day. The cold front
will create quite a temperature spread across the CWA on Monday with
highs in northwestern Missouri only reaching the mid-40s while the
areas ahead of the front will reach the mid 60s to near 70. Monday
night through Tuesday, additional lead shortwaves will push through
the CWA providing additional chances for precipitation. Temperatures
behind the front will fall below freezing Monday night and in these
areas, precipitation looks to fall in form of freezing rain. The
cold front continues to press south through the CWA Tuesday with
areas transitioning from rain to freezing rain behind the front.
Precipitation should exit the area Tuesday night although light snow
may linger across the extreme southern CWA into Wednesday. Highs
will be much cooler by Wednesday with highs in the upper 20s to mid
30s.

By the end of the week models are advertising another upper level
trough moving through the Rockies. This solution would bring another
round of precipitation late week. At this time, it looks like a snow
to rain event on Friday. Highs on Thursday are expected to be in the
low to mid 40s and rise into the mid 40s to lower 50s on Friday.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM CST SAT FEB 17 2018

MVFR/IFR cigs have sct out and cigs are expected to remain VFR thru
the the TAF pd with just ocnl few-sct high clouds. Winds will be
out of the W to WNW around 10kts this afternoon before becmg lgt
and vrb tonight. Winds will then pick up from south over night
before becmg gusty late tomorrow morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...73



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