Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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224
FXUS63 KEAX 232344
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
544 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 349 PM CST MON JAN 23 2017

Low level stratus has broken out across much of the area this
afternoon as the ridge of high pressure has moved off to the east
and southerly winds have commenced on the back side of the departing
ridge. The better surface pressure gradient currently resides off to
the west of the forecast area and will gradually move eastward into
western Missouri. Expect these surface winds to pick up through the
night out of the south around 10 mph. With good warm and moist air
advection into the area there could be some low stratus through the
Tuesday morning hours, with maybe some localized lowered visibility
with some haze. By mid day clouds should break up, lending to some
partly to mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will generally warm up
into the middle 50s to perhaps lower 60s as the warm front pushes
well north of the area. This warm up is in response to a fairly
potent surface cyclone, which will push into central and eastern
Kansas through the day on Tuesday. This surface cyclone will run off
to the northeast into southern Iowa, perhaps cutting across far NW
MO Tuesday into Tuesday night. The mid level wave associated with
this low level circulation will glide across the northern Plains and
into the Great Lakes Region through the day on Tuesday, taking the
best synoptic lift north with it. The trailing cold front will then
be the focus for some light rain showers on Tuesday and Tuesday
night. The best chance for some light rain on Tuesday night would be
across northern Missouri, however with the cold front moving through
there could be a few showers further south toward the KC Metro, but
overall the best chances will be well north of KC Tuesday night. As
the cooler air works into the area Wednesday some moisture will wrap
around the low pressure system and bring some mixy type
precipitation, mainly to the north of KC Metro across far northern
Missouri. Perhaps Wednesday night into Thursday there will be enough
cold air to change the precipitation over to snow, but with the bulk
of the precipitation from this system going well north of the area
accumulations of snow will be minimal if evident at all.

Northwest mid level flow regime then takes over the area in the wake
of the mid week trough. This will effectively cut off the chances
for precipitation through the latter half of the week. Long range
models hint at a lobe of mid level energy swinging through the area
late next weekend, which might bring with it a chance for widespread
light precipitation, but given the prolonged W/NW flow at the
surface and aloft the amount of usable moisture would likely be
rather minimal, thus moderate to heavy precipitation is unlikely
with next weekend`s wave.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 543 PM CST MON JAN 23 2017

Another night of uncertain fog forecasts, as increasing winds that
would typically prevent much fog formation didn`t do much to
mitigate it last night. Current thinking is that patchy fog will
redevelop later this evening, but gradually lift into a very low
stratus deck as winds increase overnight. Confidence is not
terribly high on this scenario, but seems the most likely given
the very persistent nature of fog lately.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Hawblitzel



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