027
FXUS63 KEAX 080842
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
342 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...


- Rounds of thunderstorms are possible today mainly along and east
of a line from Harrisonville to Chillicothe.  Very large hail and
wind gusts to 60 mph can be expected with the morning storms, while
very large hail, strong winds, and a tornado or two are possible
this afternoon.

- Additional showers/non-severe thunderstorms are expected across
northern Missouri on Thursday.

- A warming trend is expected through the weekend, with the threat
of thunderstorms returning by the end of the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Sit and spin upper level low centered across the western Dakotas is
expected to fragment today as one of the main shortwaves rounds the
base of the trough and pushes east tonight into Thursday. Across
eastern Nebraska/eastern Kansas, mid level cloud cover has built
overnight with strong isentropic lift near the 300K surface. Area of
low pressure has moved into south central Kansas into north central
Oklahoma. Warm front with this system has worked into southwestern
Missouri as of 08Z, noted with an increase in moisture (dew points
of 60+ F) south of the boundary. This boundary is expected to
continue to lift north this morning, the increasing low level
moisture is expected to reach the edge of the cap.  With very steep
lapse rates from 700-500 mb and 1-6 km bulk shear values of 40-50
knots overhead, expect storms that develop to be capable of
very large hail (>2" in diameter) and possibly a strong wind
gust or two owing to the mid level dry air. These storms are
expected to move to the eastnortheast around 40 knots, but with
very linear hodographs, there is the potential for splitting
storms with left movers building into the southern portion of
the forecast area (east of I-49 and south of I-70). CAMs suggest
convective initiation between 9-12Z this morning.

Building low level moisture will favor a loaded gun sounding with
increasing instability with the very steep lapse rates remaining
from 700-500 mb (in excess of 8 C/km).  If the atmosphere is able to
become capped for a time frame ahead of an approaching short
wave, CAPE values may approach 1500-2000 J/kg with the strong
shear remaining. Storms this afternoon could be closer to being
surface based, bringing all severe hazards into play.
Positioning of the boundary will be critical in terms of
figuring out the precise threat area, but the greatest threat
appears to be east of a line from Harrisonville MO to
Chillicothe and areas east. For forecast highs today, sided
close to the mean in areas west and north of the convection,
with slightly cooler highs across central Missouri that could
see storms throughout the day.

As the area of low pressure shifts east this evening, northwest
winds develop across the region. Cooler air returns to the region,
but expect the chances for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two
to increase across northern Missouri on Thursday as short wave
associated with the northern branch of the jet builds south across
the Upper Midwest.  The low clouds and precipitation will keep
temperatures cool across northern Missouri, while areas farther
south warm a bit more closer to normal.

Quieter weather is expected on Friday as high pressure builds south
across the western Great Plains. As this ridge builds south and
eventually east, temperatures should gradually warm through the
weekend.

Increasing south/westerly winds will lead to moisture building back
into the region on Sunday. As a lingering fragment of the upper low
builds east from the desert southwest, could see a renewed threat
for additional showers and thunderstorms late Sunday into early
next week. With weaker wind shear, the threat for severe
weather looks to possibly be less than today.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Active weather expected after 12Z Thursday as low level moisture
leads to additional thunderstorms mainly east of I-35. Could
see MVFR ceilings and visibility in the convection across
central Missouri. Cold front will shift east across the region
this afternoon. Could see a renewed thunderstorm threat along
and ahead of the front near 21Z this afternoon (mainly east of
highway 65). Northwest winds develop behind the cold front. TAF
sites largely remain west of the expected convection and
impacts, thus VFR conditions should largely reign. &&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT