Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 282306
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
606 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015
Issued at 316 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
Tonight through Sunday Night: A well-defined shortwave trough on
water vapor currently over Montana will quickly move across the
Northern Plains tonight. An associated cold front will move towards
the forecast area tonight, and with the approaching wave, increasing
ascent will overspread the region. There is not much moisture in
advance of this system, so while light precipitation is expected
over portions of the forecast area, total rainfall amounts will be
light, generally only a few hundredths of an inch. With warmer air
moving aloft, all precipitation will be in the form of liquid. Light
rain will move into northern Missouri after midnight, with all
precipitation exiting the forecast area by early Sunday afternoon.
Clouds will quickly increase tonight, and then clear behind the
exiting precipitation late morning Sunday into the afternoon from
northwest to southeast. With mostly clear skies and southwesterly to
westerly winds, temperatures will warm into the 60s across the CWA
on Sunday afternoon. Lows on Sunday night will be near seasonal
levels in the 30s to near 40.
Monday through Tuesday: Dry and warm weather are expected early in
the work week as an upper level ridge builds into the area.
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s each day.
Wednesday and beyond: Moisture will increase on Wednesday in advance
of the next system moving through the Northern/Central Plains.
Models are fairly consistent in bringing a cold front into eastern
Nebraska and Iowa by Wednesday evening, with thunderstorms
developing along the front. Convection will gradually move into the
CWA Wednesday night into Thursday morning, likely into a gradual
weakening phase with the later nocturnal timing. Still, will need to
watch potential for a few strong storms depending on the timing of
CI and subsequent arrival based on supportive upper dynamics and
modest instability. The best chance for precipitation should hold
off until after dark Wednesday night through early Thursday morning
for most areas. Models begin to diverge Thursday into Friday, but
generally have some signal for the cold front to stall over southern
Missouri Thursday as the upper support moves further away and in
response to the next approaching upper disturbance. Additional
showers and perhaps a few elevated thunderstorms will remain
possible Thursday into Friday north of the warm front across the
forecast area. Temperatures will remain slightly above or near
normal during the remainder of the forecast period. Early
indications are for a dry upcoming weekend.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 601 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
VFR conditions will eventually give way to MVFR cigs as low-level
stratus approaches ahead of a cold front expected to push through
early Sunday afternoon. Limited moisture ahead of the front may lead
to precipitation development overnight, though stronger forcing will
be present to the east of the terminals. Low stratus deck will clear
out Sunday morning as winds begin to shift to the NW through the late
morning. Increased winds will persist through a majority of the
forecast period, with gusts as high as 25 kts likely along and behind
the frontal boundary.