Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 051744
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1144 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

This forecast period will feature dry conditions and one last cold
day before we bring on Spring-like temperatures. Early this morning,
high pressure is building into the area from the northwest. This is
allowing skies to clear, wind to become light and, consequently,
temperatures to plummet. Lows this morning will start out in the
single digits to mid teens. High pressure will remain over the area
most of today and temperatures are not expected to rebound much as
mixing will be weak. Expect highs to be in the 20s to lower 30s
which is nearly 20 degrees below normal.

Tonight, the much anticipated warm-up will begin as high pressure
shifts east of the area and southerly flow begins to increase
overnight and into Friday. Good mixing on Friday will allow
temperatures to return to near normal with highs in the mid 40s to
mid 50s. Southwesterly flow will continue into Saturday out ahead of
an approaching cold front. 850mb temperatures will also rise to
4C-6C which will yield highs in the 50s area-wide. A weak cold front
will pass through the area Saturday night but the passage will be
dry. Sunday, winds will quickly return to the southwest and highs
will again be in the 50s.

The first half of next week continues to look mild as height rises
on Monday suggest that temperatures will future rise to the mid 50s
to near 60. Tuesday and Wednesday look to further continue the
warming trend as flow aloft becomes zonal and models depict
southwest flow at the surface. By Wednesday 850mb temperatures range
between 9C-13C which will yield highs in the 60s with some areas
even approaching 70 degrees. This would complete the full 180 in
temperatures, starting the period nearly 20 degrees below normal and
ending it nearly 20 degrees above normal!

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR conditions expected with marginal low-level wind shear conditions
expected late tonight as southwesterly winds steadily increase
at/just above the inversion. KSTJ has best chance of seeing LLWS for
several hours.

Have discounted latest NAM boundary layer moisture profile. Model
tends to over forecast this moisture with retreating surface highs,
especially during the winter. Favor much drier GFS and short range
RAP which maintain clear skies.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...MJ






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