Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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FXUS66 KEKA 232243
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
343 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SAGGING COLD FRONT IS STALLING OVER TRINITY AND
NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY. TONIGHT THIS WILL LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA HAS BROUGHT
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS NORTH OF MENDOCINO
COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM OVER 5 INCHES ON COOSKIE
MOUNTAIN IN THE KING RANGE TO AN INCH AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AND IN
EASTERN TRINITY COUNTY. SOUTHERN MENDOCINO HAS BEEN THE LOWEST
TODAY WITH UKIAH RECEIVING LESS THAN A THENTH OF AN INCH.

THE FRONT HAS STARTED TO STALL OUT IN A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
LINE ACROSS INTERIOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY...TRINITY COUNTY AND NORTHERN
MENDOCINO COUNTY. THIS MAY SAG A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...BUT THEN THIS
EVENING WILL START TO PUSH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING THIS WILL PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AS THIS
PUSHES NORTH THE RAIN WILL END BEHIND IT. THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED
SLIGHTLY ON THIS AND THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN ON FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THIS...BUT THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THIS
RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT AND ALMOST DRIZZLE. FRIDAY WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THIS MAY ALLOW THE COAST TO
WARM UP INTO THE 70S WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SIMILAR.

FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALL MODELS BRINGING THE RAIN IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS ARE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AND LOOK TO
PEAK SATURDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE
RIDGES AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST...BUT HELD OFF ON
ISSUING THAT WITH IT STILL BEING A DAY OR SO OUT AND CONFIDENCENOT
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY BE SOME OF THE STRONGEST
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS SO FAR THIS FALL GUSTS TO 60 MPH OVER THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTY AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH
IN ELEVATED AREAS SUCH AS KNEELAND AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO THE COAST
IN DEL NORTE COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY VARY WIDELY WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON THE SOUTH SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE ONSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT
BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN DEL NORTE
COUNTY. THIS MAY ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...FIRST TO THE WATERS IN THE MORNING AND THEN
SPREADING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE SHOWERS WILL START TO DIMINISH AS
THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND. THE ECMWF HOLDS ON TO THE SHOWERS OVER
DEL NORTE COUNTY A BIT LONGER THAN THE GFS. THESE SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY BE MAINLY OVER THE INLAND AREAS...WHILE THE COAST MAY SEE A
FAIRLY DRY DAY. MKK

.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU)...SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH LESS CLOUDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS MANY
INTERIOR VALLEY`S WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FONT PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES ARE GREATER ACROSS NORTHER AREAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED OUT OVER THE AREA.
TONIGHT THIS FRONT STARTS TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT BRINGING LIGHT MISTY RAIN. THIS MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY AT SOME POINTS TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TAFS
TONIGHT. TOMORROW AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE NORTH THE RAIN WILL
END AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. THIS WILL ALSO LIFT THE
CIGS ALONG AT THE AIRPORTS. GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. MKK

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS ARE DIMINISHING AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS. HOWEVER A WESTERLY SWELL
WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SEAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A GALE WARNINGS WILL BE
IN EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
 DUE TO INCREASING WINDS. A GALE WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ANS MAY NEED TO BE
UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING DUE TO THE WINDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM FRIDAY TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ470-475.

     GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM FRIDAY TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ455.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ475.

&&

$$

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