Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 222007
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
307 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
THE MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE THE
CONTINUED HEAT. THE GOOD NEWS IS LOCATIONS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA HAVE MIXED OUT MUCH MORE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS HAS
HELPED AS HEAT INDICES ARE BELOW 100 DEGREES IN THESE LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
LA GRANGE AND GONZALES ARE REPORTING A HEAT INDEX OF 106 AND 105
DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER OUT
WEST TONIGHT WITH THE MIXING THAT OCCURRED TODAY. IN THE
SOUTHEAST...LOWS HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80 DEGREES.
ALTHOUGH THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS ONCE AGAIN FORECASTING LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S...WILL USE MORE OF A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND BUMP UP
LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. WITH
HIGHS ONCE AGAIN NEAR 100 AND HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105...THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED FOR THE SAME AREA CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE TO THE NORTHEAST BY
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO BUT WILL
NOT HAVE MUCH OF A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AT OR BELOW 1.5 INCHES.

THERE IS A PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE COMING INTO
MORE OF AN AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF AN EXPECTED TROUGH
PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS WEAK FRONTS AND RAIN EVENTS WE HAVE SEEN
THIS SUMMER. CURRENT MODEL RUNS HAVE THE FRONT STALLING JUST NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND OUR RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE DEPENDENT ON
ANY REMNANT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS MOVING INTO THE AREA. THERE IS
SOME WEAK UPPER LIFT CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE IN PLACE AS A WEAK
SHEAR AXIS/TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 6 DAYS OUT AND
WILL FORECAST 20 POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77 101  76 101  76 /   0   0  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74 101  74 101  73 /   0   0  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75 101  73 101  74 /   0   0  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  98  74  98  74 /   0   0  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76 100  78 100  75 /   0   0  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  98  75  99  75 /   0   0  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  98  74  98  74 /   0   0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        75 100  74 100  74 /   0   0  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78 101  76 101  77 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76 100  78 100  78 /   0   0  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76 101  77 101  77 /   0   0  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33








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