Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
306
FXUS64 KEWX 282357
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
657 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.AVIATION...
Some showers are currently passing over AUS and storms are
approaching and will likely affect DRT over the next 2 hours. Once
the sun goes down am expecting the convection to decrease with the
overnight hours mainly dealing with light NE surface winds and
debris clouds. Look for areas of MVFR ceilings again in the
morning hours across the AUS/SSF/SAT taf sites. A little less
likely out in DRT. By 16-17Z Monday the ceilings should improve
and the return of SCT clouds and VCSH will dominate. The low
pressure area near the upper TX coast will continue to bring just
enough moisture into the area to get scattered SH/TS with
afternoon heating. Not out of the question in getting some TS to
affect the sites Monday PM but too early to try and give any
specific timing details.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/

UPDATE...
Cluster of thunderstorms across Val Verde, Kinney, and Edwards
counties are showing signs of producing outflow boundaries well
ahead of the precipitation cores which should serve to begin a
downtrend in intensity over the next hour or so. As we lose
daytime heating influences by 01-03Z, the rest of the activity
across South Central Texas should wane in coverage and intensity.

Have increased PoPs and QPF for southeastern Val Verde, western
Kinney, and northern Maverick counties through the next 3 hours as
well as hourly T/Td updates based off latest hourly obs.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
The latest water vapor loop shows an upper low over the
northwestern Gulf/far southeast Texas this afternoon. This upper
low will be the main weather feature of interest for the next
several days. With the upper low in proximity to the region, we
will continue to see above normal moisture levels. This moisture
along with daytime heating will lead to isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Most activity will
be tied closely to daytime heating, so a decreasing trend in
shower and thunderstorm activity is expected by late evening. Some
locally heavy rainfall is possible, especially given the slow
storm movement. For tomorrow, a similar pattern is in store as we
continue to see an increase in deep layer moisture due to an
increase in easterly flow in the lower and mid-levels. While most
convection will likely occur in the afternoon and evening hours on
Monday, we can`t rule out some overnight showers due to the
increase in moisture.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
The above mentioned upper low will drift southwestward into the
middle Texas coast on Tuesday. With plenty of moisture in place,
we expect another round of diurnal showers and thunderstorms
across south central Texas. The upper low will weaken while
moving southwestward into south Texas on Wednesday. The atmosphere
will begin to slowly dry for the remainder of this week as the
deeper moisture moves into south Texas. In addition, mid and upper
level ridging along with the decrease in moisture will result in a
decreased chance for rain. Temperatures will also begin to edge
upward for late this week into early next week. However, given the
recent rains and moist ground, we expect near or just below normal
high temperatures along with normal overnight lows.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              73  89  73  90  74 /  30  50  30  40  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  89  73  89  73 /  40  50  40  40  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  89  73  89  73 /  30  40  40  50  20
Burnet Muni Airport            72  88  72  88  72 /  20  40  30  40  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           74  91  73  89  73 /  70  40  40  40  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  88  73  88  73 /  30  40  30  40  20
Hondo Muni Airport             73  90  73  90  73 /  20  40  30  50  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  88  72  88  73 /  30  50  40  50  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  90  74  90  75 /  50  50  40  40  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  89  74  89  74 /  20  40  40  50  20
Stinson Muni Airport           75  90  75  90  74 /  20  40  40  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...09
Synoptic/Grids...TB3
Public Service/Data Collection...33



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.