Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
FXUS64 KEWX 280000
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
700 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
.AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/
High pressure aloft will keep a light wind environment over the
area TAF sites with only some vfr level cumulus expected for
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday)...
Much above average temperatures are expected through the end of
the work week with dry conditions persisting. There could be a
few isolated showers that develop across the Hill Country this
afternoon but coverage and rainfall amounts will be quite minimal.
A low-level ridge is developing over the Gulf Coast states and
Texas with mid-and upper-level ridging taking form over far west
Texas into northern Mexico. These factors will drive near-surface
wind flow from the southeast ushering in moist air while acting
to suppress most, if not all, shower activity. For this afternoon,
there could be just enough sfc-700mb layer moisture and mixed-
layer instability in the Hill Country for isolated showers.
Coverage and rainfall amounts will remain quite limited and any
activity will dissipate through the early evening hours.
A near repeat of today is expected Friday with a warm morning
start for this time of year. Low temperatures will be around 8-10F
degrees above normal. Highs will reach into the mid and upper 80s
which are around 10 degrees above normal. Records highs are in the
low and mid 90s, so it is unlikely that those will be reached.
Slightly drier air in the 700-500mb layer will move in tomorrow
as winds shift more s/SW. This will eliminate rain chances Friday
vs. the isolated activity today.
LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Continued above normal temperatures are expected over the weekend
and into next week and a few record high minimums will be quite
possible. Rain chances will increase Monday-Wednesday time-frame
as an upper-level disturbance shifts over the region.
The weekend looks great other than being abnormally warm and
muggy with the entrenched ridging over Texas. Given the
persistent on-shore SE flow during, return Gulf moisutre with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s will advect NW into Texas. This
will cause plenty of morning clouds, patchy fog, and warm
mornings. Moisture will mix out during the afternoons, and with a
drier 700-500mb layer in place, instability will remain low in
the capped atmosphere. Therefore, dry conditions are expected to
continue. This will start to change going into early next week.
The mid- and upper-level ridging will break down early next week
as a stronger trough and jet streak infiltrate the western US.
Upper level energy will shift over the region Monday and linger
through Wednesday in the ridge weakness. Surface dewpoints are
progged to increase even further into the upper 60s to near 70F
with PWATS reaching 1.6-1.9" central and west. With weak to
moderate instability and higher columnar moisture available,
convective showers and thunderstorms will be possible each
afternoon. Given the shear axis in place, the convective activity
could linger longer into the overnight and develop earlier in the
morning outside of the general diurnal convective window. Overall,
forcing will be weak to moderate and instability will be weak to
moderate. There could be some locally heavy downpours with the
thunderstorms given the higher than normal PWATS but a
concentrated flooding hazard does not appear to be in place at
this time. The stronger synoptic forcing looks to remain in the
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 64 87 64 86 66 / 0 0 - 0 -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 60 86 60 87 64 / 0 0 - - -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 62 86 62 86 65 / 0 0 - - -
Burnet Muni Airport 63 84 61 84 63 / 0 0 - 0 -
Del Rio Intl Airport 66 85 64 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 -
Georgetown Muni Airport 62 85 61 86 64 / 0 0 - 0 -
Hondo Muni Airport 61 87 62 87 64 / 0 0 - 0 -
San Marcos Muni Airport 62 86 62 85 64 / 0 0 - - -
La Grange - Fayette Regional 63 87 63 87 65 / 0 - - 10 -
San Antonio Intl Airport 64 85 64 85 66 / 0 0 - - -
Stinson Muni Airport 65 87 64 86 66 / 0 - - - -
Public Service/Data Collection...33