Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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071
FXUS64 KEWX 060507
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1107 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.UPDATE...
Please see the 06Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Some patchy fog and low clouds can be seen developing on the last
few 11-3.9 satellite images near AUS. Given ongoing trends and
recent forecast soundings, we have opted to show more fog and low
clouds in the forecast overnight with IFR expected between 07Z-
11Z. No significant changes have been made to the SAT and SSF
forecasts for tonight. We still expect some MVFR fog between
07Z-13Z, but with winds transitioning to a more west and
northwesterly direction toward early morning, fog is typically not
favored. At DRT, we also kept the forecast fairly similar, with
conditions dropping into IFR between 07Z-11Z. All sites should
see rapid improvement by mid-morning as a cold front moves through
the region. VFR conditions are then expected behind the front for
most sites through the afternoon. The exception will be at AUS
where some MVFR cigs may filter in behind the front during the
late afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/

UPDATE...
Quick update to remove any mention of showers. As the upper low
continues to move away it is taking the showers away to the
northeast. We shouldn`t see any more precipitation. Clearing skies
will continue to move across the CWA from the west to east. Where
skies have cleared, temperatures have dropped a bit faster than
anticipated. Have adjusted lows down a few degrees in some places.
Otherwise, looking for fog to develop after midnight across much
of the east and south.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
The upper level low across the western CWA this afternoon will
continue to open and move east through the evening hours. What is
left of the light rain across the northeast CWA this afternoon
will exit northeast as dry slotting occurs. There is a slight
potential some moisture wrapping around the back side of the low
could provide some light rain or sprinkles through the Hill
Country this evening. Otherwise clearing will take place west to
east this evening, leading to the potential for patchy fog
overnight.

A dry cold front will move through the area Tuesday afternoon.
Ahead of the front clear skies and west to northwest downsloping
winds will provide for warmer temperatures, with highs into the
mid 60s to low 70s for southern areas where front is last to
clear. Cooler across the north with highs only in the upper 50s to
low 60s where post frontal clouds develop.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Mostly cloudy on Wednesday with a few showers possible across the
east and highs in the low to mid 60s. A stronger cold front is
still on track to move through the area late Wednesday night.
Breezy to windy post-frontal north winds will occur over the area
late Wednesday night through Thursday. A few showers will be
possible Wednesday night east of I-35. Cloudy and much colder on
Thursday with highs only in the 40s for most locations. Wind
chill values will be many degrees colder during the day on
Thursday, in the low to mid 30s north and upper 30s to low 40s
south.

The ECMWF and GFS for the past few runs have been showing some
light QPF across West-Central Texas late Wednesday night through
Thursday associated with some ascent in the right rear quadrant of
an upper level jet streak, along with a mid level moisture pool.
Both models indicate the possibility of some of this moisture
working into portions of Central Texas and far northern areas of
the Hill Country. Forecast soundings suggest temperatures cold
enough in the cloud layer to support ice crystal growth across
the far northern CWA Thursday morning but differ in thermal
profile, potential wet-bulbing, and dry layer in the sub cloud
layer. Due to uncertainty have kept forecast all liquid for now
through the northern Hill Country early Thursday.

A freeze is expected across the Hill Country Thursday night and
likely along portions of the I-35 corridor from New Braunfels to
Georgetown. There is a good potential some areas farther south and
east of these locations, as well as the Rio Grande, could also
experience a freeze. Continued cold temperatures on Friday, but
much less wind and sunny skies should make it feel warmer compared
to Thursday.

A return flow will set-up over the weekend with gradually
modifying temperatures. Some slight chances for showers across the
eastern counties.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              45  63  44  63  38 /  -    0   0  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  44  64  44  61  39 /  -    0   0  10  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     45  66  43  62  40 /  -    0   0  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            43  59  41  60  34 /  10   0   0  10  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           44  67  44  64  40 /   0   0   0   0  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        44  60  42  61  36 /  -    0   0  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             44  69  42  63  41 /  -    0   0  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        45  64  43  62  39 /  -    0   0  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   46  68  46  64  42 /   0   0   0  20  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       46  68  44  62  41 /  -    0   0  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           45  70  44  62  43 /  -    0   0  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...24
Synoptic/Grids...05
Public Service/Data Collection...Williams



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