Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KEWX 121508
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
908 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS OF 9 AM.
VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAINS ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS OF FOG BETWEEN 1/2 AND 2 MILES REMAIN
FROM PLEASANTON TO GONZALES AND LA GRANGE. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS WILL ALSO DISSIPATE LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

AVIATION.../12Z UPDATE/
VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KAUS. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE OTHER I-35
TERMINALS. AFTER 15Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN
09Z-11Z AT THE I-35 SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME E/NE AT 5-10 KNOTS
AFTER 16Z THEN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME FOG ESPECIALLY AT KAUS AROUND
12Z SATURDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

OVERVIEW...DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON -
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS.

SYNOPTIC H5 PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING PER WATER VAPOR AND
RAP ANALYSIS REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS ARCING NW
BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A H5 RIDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS IS PLACING TEXAS IN WEAK NW H5 FLOW
WITH NOTED SHAPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE
ALONGSIDE A STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. H925 TEMPS RANGED 24-18C
WEST TO EAST YESTERDAY THAT ALLOWED FOR NEAR RECORD HEAT. VALUES
WILL RANGE AROUND 23-15C TODAY SO MAX HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH YESTERDAYS VALUES. STILL -  ABOVE NORMAL AND QUITE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION THAT WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKEST IN THE SW AND CENTRAL AREAS. BASED ON
SOME IMPLIED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER-TOP OF THE WEAK FRONT THAT
STALLS OVER THE REGION...LOW-LVL MOISTURE MAY BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION AND BE TOUGHER TO CLEAR OUT IN NE AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS AND THE COOLER H925 TEMPS...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH 70F TOWARDS THE AUSTIN AREA WHILE SAN
ANTONIO AND POINTS SW WILL WARM UP MORE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LOW-END LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR
PORTIONS OF SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS...A DRY
WEEK IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO NEXT WEEK AND
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND THIS LOW-LEVEL SATURATION COULD LEAD TO PATCHY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

THE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MOST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS REGION. IF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH
THEN ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE ADDED TO NE
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH LOW-END /20%/ LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FOR FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS BUT BEST PRECIPITATION LOCATION WILL BE
TOWARDS EAST/NORTH TEXAS. THERE COULD BE SOME POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA TOWARDS WACO AND HOUSTON
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN 100-300 J/KG MUCAPE. HOWEVER - FEEL RISK IS
TO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR OUR REGION GIVEN INGREDIENT DISCONNECT HERE.
A STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO TRUE COLD
AIR RESIDES BEHIND IT.

FOR TUES-THURS - EXPECT SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED WORSENING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE NO RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS POINT...FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO CLIMB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  47  66  53  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77  43  66  51  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  46  70  52  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  43  65  51  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           84  49  76  54  78 /   0   0   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  43  64  50  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             82  45  73  52  77 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  45  67  51  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  49  66  51  73 /   0   0  -   10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  47  70  54  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           80  47  72  54  77 /   0   0   0  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.