Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 261940
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
240 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Overall, the coverage of showers and thunderstorms is lower than
previous days as the moisture in the atmosphere is slightly less
than yesterday. The heavier activity is located in the Coastal Plains
with isolated weaker showers elsewhere. The MCV from overnight
activity is helping to develop deeper convection near San Angelo and
will have to watch for this possible developing and moving southeast
into the Edwards Plateau and Hill County later this afternoon and
evening. There will also be the potential of further development
ahead of it as well with peak heating. Will carry a 30-40 PoP for the
northeastern half of the area through 06z to account for this threat
and lowered it to 20/30 for the 06-12z time frame. Locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds will be the main threat from any of the
stronger activity.

For tomorrow, much of the same can be expected with little overall
change in the atmosphere as a weak shear axis remains in place and
moisture values remain nearly constant. The higher coverage will once
again be in the Coastal Plains. Will have to watch for any possible
MCV development from activity this afternoon as this could affect
rain chances tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Activity will likely diminish near sunset as showers and
storms remain diurnally driven with the peak of heating. Lows
tomorrow night will once again be in the upper 60s to lower 70s with
the lower values in the Hill Country.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
The shear axis is scheduled to move south of the area by Wednesday
which should lead to slightly lower values of moisture available in
the atmosphere for shower and thunderstorm development. Rain chances
will only be confined to the eastern half of the area and these will
primarily range from 20 to 40 percent with the higher values in the
Coastal Plains. Much of the same is expected for Thursday and Friday
as ridging will suppress convection for the west and low rain chances
will continue in the east. Moisture values will drop off further for
the remainder of the forecast and will not mention any PoPs, but
can`t completely rule out an isolated shower. Highs in the extended
will warm into the middle to upper 90s by the end of the period given
the lower moisture values with lows warming into the middle to upper
70s as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              72  90  72  91  74 /  40  40  10  20  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  71  90  71  91  74 /  30  40  10  20  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     71  90  71  90  73 /  30  40  10  30  -
Burnet Muni Airport            70  88  70  89  72 /  40  40  10  10  -
Del Rio Intl Airport           73  91  72  95  75 /  40  30  10  10  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        71  89  70  90  73 /  40  40  10  20  -
Hondo Muni Airport             71  90  70  92  73 /  40  40  10  20  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        71  90  71  90  74 /  30  40  10  20  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  89  72  90  75 /  30  50  20  40  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  89  72  91  74 /  40  40  10  20  -
Stinson Muni Airport           73  90  73  91  74 /  30  40  10  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...TB3
Synoptic/Grids...Hampshire
Public Service/Data Collection...YB



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