Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 272336
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
636 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.AVIATION...
There was a wind shift earlier this afternoon to northeasterly and
these winds will continue for a few more hours. Winds will shift
back to east to southeasterly later this evening and CIGs will
lower to MVFR in Austin and San Antonio. CIGs will drop further to
IFR/LIFR overnight, except at DRT where they will remain VFR.
Recovery to VFR will come Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

UPDATE...
Sent out the expiration of the Flash Flood Watch for the remaining
counties. With convection continuing across Lavaca and Dewitt
County, upped the PoPs in this location through 02z. Airmass has
become more stable behind the boundary farther to the north and
removed the 20 pops across some areas.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

UPDATE...
Have cancelled flash flood watch for all areas, except Fayette and
Lavaca counties where heavy rains continued.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Surface boundary from earlier showers and thunderstorms continues
to drift to the southwest and extends from Harper to New Braunfels
to Schulenburg. A surface dryline extends from Harper to Carrizo
Springs. Drier air aloft is spreading east of the surface dryline
making for more stable air along the I-35 corridor. The cluster of
showers and thunderstorms has shifted to the east as the drier air
filters in and is now over Fayette and Lavaca counties. Heavy rain
and additional flooding can be expected in these areas for the
next couple of hours or so. River and stream flooding persists
northwest of this cluster. Will maintain Flash Flood Watch until
expiration at 6 PM CDT. Cannot rule a shower or thunderstorm east
of the dryline this evening. An upper level trough moves away from
Texas and along with drier air aloft makes for a lull in rains
overnight. Deeper moisture returns to all areas on Saturday due to
stronger southeasterly lower level flow. Showers and thunderstorms
will redevelop with the best chances over the Rio Grande Plains
into the Edwards Plateau. Isolated strong to severe storms are
possible with the cluster and Saturday afternoon into evening due
moderate CAPE and shear.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
A series of upper level impulses will move across the southern
tier of states. A moist and unstable airmass lingers over our area
due to a persistent southeasterly lower flow off the Gulf of
Mexico. As a result, periods of showers and thunderstorms are
expected Sunday through Friday. Higher chances of showers and
thunderstorms return for mid to late week as an upper level low
and a surface boundary develop over Texas with deeper moisture.
This may bring a threat for heavy rains and flooding. Isolated
strong to severe storms are possible each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              71  89  73  88  71 /  10  30  20  20  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  70  89  74  87  71 /  10  30  20  20  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  90  73  88  71 /  20  30  20  20  20
Burnet Muni Airport            69  89  72  86  70 /  10  30  20  30  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           70  91  74  90  72 /  10  40  40  30  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        69  89  73  86  70 /  10  30  20  20  30
Hondo Muni Airport             71  91  74  89  71 /  10  30  20  20  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  89  73  87  71 /  20  30  20  20  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   71  89  75  88  73 /  20  30  10  20  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  90  75  88  72 /  20  30  20  20  20
Stinson Muni Airport           75  91  75  89  73 /  20  30  20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...05
Synoptic/Grids...Hampshire
Public Service/Data Collection...33



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