Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KEWX 130815
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
315 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP DRYING CONTINENTAL EASTERLY WINDS AT
MID LEVELS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE
DECREASING MOISTURE AND MAINTAINED STABILITY SHOULD HELP RESUME
THE SLOW WARMING TREND THAT WAS INTERRUPTED BY THE ONSHORE MOISTURE
SURGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES MILD TONIGHT. AS SOME PATCHY FOG
WAS NOTED FOR SATURDAY MORNING. SOME ADDITIONAL FOG IS EXPECTED
BRIEFLY FOR THIS MORNING...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTION FOR
MONDAY MORNING DUE TO THE REPEATED DAYS OF DRIER WEATHER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND MONDAY COULD APPROACH TRIPLE DIGITS
AROUND AUSTIN...WITH THE AUS/ATT CLIMATE SITES YET TO SEE 100
DEGREES SO FAR THIS SEASON.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A WELCOME PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE WORKS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. A STRONG UPPER TROUGHING PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE
GREAT LAKE REGION TUESDAY...LEAVING A NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS STATES. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT INTO W TX AND ALLOW THE NORTHERLIES
ALOFT TO DRIVE HIGH PLAINS THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
TEXAS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING. SEVERAL WAVES OF INSTABILITY
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THIS UNSTABLE PATTERN...LEAVING A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED UP ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
LATE TUESDAY.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN PROVIDING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY WITH A POSSIBLE PEAK THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WHEN MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS BRING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING FEATURE ACROSS SOUTH TX. CONFIDENCE ON THE
BROADER PATTERN CHANGE IS ABOVE AVERAGE...BUT TIMING OF SPECIFIC
RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE AS THIS IS A TYPICAL
STRATEGY IN UNSTABLE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERNS ALOFT. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURE TRENDS SHOULD LEVEL OFF THE WARMING TREND BY TUESDAY
AND START TO COOL IN RESPONSE TO THE PATTERN CHANGE BY THURSDAY.

IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHING FEATURE HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH MODEL RUN-TO-RUN
TRENDS SHOWING THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHIFT SOUTH FROM THE
RED RIVER TOWARD CENTRAL TX OVER THE PAST DAY. HIGH PRESSURE ON
THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO END THE
STORMY PATTERN BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  75  99  75  97 /  -   -   -   10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  71  98  73  96 /  -   -   -   10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     97  72  97  73  97 /  -   -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  73  97  74  95 /  -   -   -   20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           96  77  98  77  99 /  -   -   -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        98  75  99  75  96 /  -   -   -   20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             96  72  98  73  98 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        96  72  97  73  96 /  -   -   -   10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   97  74  97  75  97 /  20  -   -   10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       96  75  97  76  97 /  -   -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           96  73  97  74  97 /  -   -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.