Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 021140 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
640 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

LOW IFR TO MVFR STRATUS AS DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED BUT SO FAR AS ONLY
IMPACTED KAUS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHILE ON THE FRINGE OF
KSAT/KSSF. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DECREASING STRATUS
COVERAGE AND IT MAY MOVE OUT OF KAUS NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
FURTHERMORE...STRATUS DECK MAY NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT KSAT/KSSF THROUGH
14Z BEFORE IT MIXES OUT COMPLETELY. THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY
FOG WITH VISIBILITY RANGING FROM 1/2SM LOCALLY AT KBAZ TO 3-6 SM
FOR POINTS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND NEAR LA GRANGE. VIS WILL
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS WITH VFR PREVAILING.

LESS SHRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY
THAT MAY NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT ANY TAF SITE. HAVE OPTED TO NOT
INCLUDE ANY WEATHER WORDING. KSAT/KSSF WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OUT OF ALL THE SITES FOR THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY DURING
THE AFTN. SOUTH SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NEAR 5-10 KT THIS
MORNING...INCREASING TO 15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS AFTN
BEFORE FALLING BELOW 10 KT AGAIN TONIGHT. MVFR AND IFR WILL RETURN
MORE QUICKLY BY 06-08Z TO CENTRAL TAF SITES WITH LIFR POSSIBLE AS
WELL GOING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

UPDATE...
PATCHY FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE
ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A HIGH CENTERED OVER UTAH
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER TEXAS AND AN INVERTED TROUGH
PUSHING UP FROM MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS. A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH
COVERED THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF AND WINDS WERE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM 24
HOURS AGO. THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND THE TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE TROUGH WILL
ATTEMPT TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS. MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE RIDGE WILL WIN OUT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A
MAINLY DRY FORECAST...THE WILDCARD IN THIS SCENARIO IS THE
INVERTED TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW CONVECTION
TO FORM OVER THE SOUTH TODAY...SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DOWN THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH BACK THE RIDGE TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING DIFFERENCES FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH THE GFS DRIER. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE AT THIS POINT AS
DRIER IS THE NEW TREND...SO WILL HOLD ON TO SOME POPS FOR NOW.
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SOLIDLY OVER TEXAS AND BEGIN A
DRY FORECAST THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              91  74  91  74  90 /  10  -   10  -   30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  74  91  74  91 /  10  -   10  -   30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  73  91  74  90 /  10  -   10  -   30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  73  90  73  90 /  -   -   10  -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           91  74  93  75  94 /  10  -   10   0  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  74  91  74  90 /  -   -   10  -   20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  73  91  74  91 /  20  10  -   -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        91  74  91  74  90 /  10  -   10  -   30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  75  92  75  90 /  -   -   10  -   30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  74  91  75  90 /  10  10  -   -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  74  91  75  91 /  20  10  10  -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05


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