Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 011357
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
857 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SPREADING INLAND AND SHOWERS HAVE MOVED A BIT
FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HAVE
UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. ALSO UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
SAT/SSF CIGS HAVE LOWERED TO IFR WHILE AUS HAS REMAINED LOW MVFR.
THE I-35 SITES SHOULD GRADUALLY RECOVER TO BKNO20 BY 15Z AND
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 16Z. MOIST E-SE FLOW UP THE RIO GRANDE WILL
LIKELY BRING IN BORDERLINE LOW MVFR CONDITIONS TO DRT BETWEEN
12-15Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO HAVE GONE SCT010 THERE FOR NOW.

BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE IS WHETHER OR NOT THE I-35 TAF SITES WILL
HAVE SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS ARE FINALLY BEGINNING
TO INITIALIZE THE STORM COMPLEX MOVING NE ALONG THE GULF COAST.
6Z TX TECH WRF APPEARED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
SYSTEM...SO LEANED TOWARDS THAT IN ADDING IN VCSH FOR SAT/SSF/AUS
FROM 19-01Z. HOWEVER...RAP SUGGESTS VCSH IS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
15Z WHILE THE HRRR HAS VERY LITTLE COVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE
COMPLEX IN THE GULF WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
ORGANIZED SEA BREEZE TODAY TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION...CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FORECAST IS RELATIVELY LOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS. RADAR DATA ALONG WITH THE LIGHTNING
DETECTION NETWORK SHOW CONVECTION CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES FAVORED FOR
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A BURNET TO HONDO LINE. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR THE TEXAS COAST AND WITH THE SEA
BREEZE PROVIDING SOME EXTRA LIFT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS. FARTHER WEST...MOISTURE LEVELS
DECREASE. HOWEVER...GIVEN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN
THE UPPER TROUGH WE STILL EXPECT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN SLOWLY BEGINS TO CHANGE MID-WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...FORCING THE ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES FAVORED EAST OF I-35 FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAINS WHERE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL
AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOW THIS TROUGH...BUT KEEP IT FARTHER
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. CAN/T SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT REASON
TO DEVIATE FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR CONVECTION NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              95  73  94  73  94 /  20  20  20  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  93  71  93  70  93 /  20  20  20  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  73  94  73  94 /  20  20  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            93  72  92  71  93 /  10  10  10   0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  75  97  75  96 /  -    0  -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        93  72  93  72  93 /  20  20  20   0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  71  95  71  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        93  72  93  72  93 /  20  20  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   93  73  93  71  93 /  40  40  30  10  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       93  75  95  75  94 /  20  20  20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           94  74  95  73  95 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33



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