Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KEWX 271139
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
639 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY IN
PLACE THIS MORNING AND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE AND
GENERALLY BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 00Z ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR...WITH WINDS TRENDING MORE EASTERLY AT KDRT AFTER 02Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS DOMINATES THE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE FROM THE WEST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A MILD AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A DRY AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
TRY TO PUSH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH BACK TO CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.

ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. HIGHS COULD REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW/STRATUS CLOUDS
FORMING BY DAY-BREAK SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES AND
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE GULF. BUT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE SUNDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO BY MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AND STAY JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER..WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...CAN`T RULE
OUT FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE EAST
AND INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MEDIUM-RANGE SOLUTIONS BRING THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING AND
EXITING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS/DGEX/ AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
GFSENSEMBLE ARE BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO SOLUTION WITH WEATHER
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO FAR...AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PWATS OF 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH REPRESENT 2 STANDARD DEVIATION VALUES FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY
APRIL. THEREFORE...CAN`T RULE OUT FEW SPOTS EAST OF I-37 AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 90 OF GETTING UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACCUMULATIONS.

THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND EVEN LOWER 90S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79  52  82  56  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  78  47  80  53  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  50  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            77  49  81  54  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  52  86  56  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  48  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             77  47  82  53  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        78  49  80  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  50  80  57  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  52  81  55  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  50  82  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.