Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 260603
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
103 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 06Z TAF PERIOD...
MVFR CIGs are were present at TAF issuance across much of South
Central Texas, impacting KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. KDRT was still VFR with only
high clouds impacting the terminal. Winds were also breezy,
periodically becoming gusty and around 10-12kts for I-35 terminals.
Should continue to see this with an eventual lowering below 1kft to
IFR CIGs overnight. Not expecting much in the way of BR with such
elevated winds overnight. Expectation is to improve to VFR by 14-15Z
for all terminals with increasing winds gusting to 25kts or greater
from late morning through the early evening. A wind shift will take
place around mid day, shifting winds from the south and southeast to
west and northwest.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
An upper level trough moves out of the Rockies tonight and across
the Plains Wednesday into Wednesday night. A surface low moves
across the Plains Wednesday to the middle Mississippi Valley
Wednesday night. A dryline will enter our far western areas after
Midnight, reaching the I-35 corridor early in the morning, and then
move east of our area around midday or early afternoon. Expect
another round of stratus ahead of the dryline with rapid dissipation
on its passage. A passing right entrance region of an upper level
jet and moisture below a strong cap may be sufficient for patchy
drizzle east of Highway 281 late tonight into early Wednesday
morning. Have maintained only silent 10s for POPs. Downslope flow
keeps temperatures above normal on Wednesday. Strong mixing and a
tight pressure gradient will result in breezy to possibly windy
conditions. However, a weaker pressure gradient has lessened the
potential of a wind advisory. Humidities will fall into the teens to
20s and combined with the winds mentioned above will create elevated
to critical fire weather conditions. The best chances for critical
conditions is from the San Antonio area along and south of the
Escarpment to the Rio Grande where a Fire Weather Watch will be
issued. A cold front moves across our area late in the afternoon into
early evening. No rain is expected with the front as moisture will
have been scoured out by the dryline. Surface high pressure settles
into our area Wednesday night for below normal low temperatures due
to clear skies, light winds, and a drier airmass.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Cool down will be short lived as south to southwest lower level flow
returns on Thursday as the surface high moves off to the east with
low pressure in the Plains. High temperatures warm to well above
normal for Friday into Saturday. There are good chances for 100
degree high temperatures along the Rio Grande on Friday and Saturday
as 925MB temperatures near 35C. An upper level trough moves across
the Plains this weekend with a dryline and a cold front moving
across South Central Texas. Models have come into much better
agreement on this morning`s runs. Have gone with a Saturday night
frontal passage and a Sunday upper trough passage. Expect some
breaking of the cap on Saturday to allow for showers and
thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous
Saturday night as the front moves across our area. There is a
potential of strong to severe storms as forecast soundings indicate
high CAPE, steep lapse rates, and moderate wind shear. Showers and
thunderstorms end early Sunday as the front moves away. Temperatures
fall to below normal in the wake of the front Sunday and remain below
normal into Monday due to cool surface high pressure. Then a warmup
to near or slightly above normal by Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              88  53  86  68  91 /  -    0   0  -   -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  88  51  85  67  91 /  -    0   0  -   -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     89  51  86  67  91 /  -    0   0   0  -
Burnet Muni Airport            84  49  84  66  90 /   0   0   0  -   10
Del Rio Intl Airport           90  58  91  68  96 /   0   0   0   0  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        85  50  85  68  90 /  -    0   0  -   10
Hondo Muni Airport             90  51  89  67  94 /   0   0   0   0  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        89  51  87  68  91 /  -    0   0   0  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   89  51  86  68  90 /  10   0   0  -   10
San Antonio Intl Airport       90  53  87  68  93 /   0   0   0   0  -
Stinson Muni Airport           91  54  88  68  95 /   0   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...TB3
Synoptic/Grids...Allen


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