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000
FXUS62 KFFC 240600
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
200 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/
ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO POPS FOR TONIGHT. NOT SURE SHOWERS WILL
COMPLETELY GO AWAY OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE
THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

41

.PREVIOUS...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN LA COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BACK
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE TROUGH HAS FORMED  ACROSS NORTHERN GA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
NORTHERN GA THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDER HAS BEEN MORE ISOLATED...BUT
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND
APPROACH NORTH GA BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA TOMORROW...BEFORE SETTLING ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA. FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS WITH RATHER STRONG FROPA FOR LATE JULY. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE DECENT SHEAR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING...THOUGH TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM MAY STILL VARY
THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST AND COULD INFLUENCE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE TRENDED A BIT COOLER TEMPS IN POST FRONTAL
REGIME TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH SEVERAL FEATURES IMPACTING THE AREA...BUT MODELS ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING RELATIVELY QUIET PERIODS IN
BETWEEN. HAVE ACTUALLY DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL MODELS
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA. AS A RESULT...HAVE
CONTINUED MENTION OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND LONGWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. CHANCE POPS SUNDAY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY WEEK AND THEN EXIT QUICKLY LATE MONDAY AS SECOND FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. LONGWAVE TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS POSITION OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID WEEK...AND WITH SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWER PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE
SECOND FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH MAY SEE A FEW PATCHES OF SCT MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND THIS
MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNTIL MAYBE MID MORNING
WHEN DAYTIME HEATING AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH
GA COMBINE TO INCREASE AT LEAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE
TAF SITES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT..EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP... WARRANTING VCSH BY 17Z AT ATL
AND A PROB30 -TSRA FROM 18-24Z FOR NOW. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH
OF ATL BY 23Z TODAY WITH ANY ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CIGS SCATTERING.
LIGHT WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 8-10KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS
AFTER 14Z TODAY. EXPECT NW WINDS 5KTS OR LESS AND VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  87  71  90 /  20  60  30  10
ATLANTA         72  85  70  87 /  20  60  30  10
BLAIRSVILLE     67  78  63  83 /  30  60  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    71  84  68  87 /  30  60  20  10
COLUMBUS        73  90  73  90 /  20  60  30  20
GAINESVILLE     70  84  68  86 /  20  60  20  10
MACON           73  91  72  90 /  20  60  30  30
ROME            71  84  67  88 /  30  60  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  71  87  69  88 /  20  60  30  20
VIDALIA         76  94  75  92 /  20  60  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41/39
LONG TERM....31/BAKER
AVIATION...39