Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 282341
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
741 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015



.UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL HAS BEGUN TO TAPER OFF AND LOSE SOME
STRENGTH. ADJUSTED POPS EARLIER IN THE SHIFT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
PRECIP AXIS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMP/DEW GRIDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
ORIENTED ROUGHLY 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE I85 CORRIDOR. THESE
STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD IN THE MOIST GULF FLOW. WHERE THESE
STORMS ARE FORMING LINES UP WELL WITH THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING
THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THIS LOCATION. WITH THIS IN
MIND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT OF A DRY SLOT MOVING IN ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FROM THE SE PUSHING THE DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTH OF THE AREA. THINKING WE WILL STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREA NORTH
AND WEST OF LAGRANGE TO ATLANTA TO ATHENS LINE. THIS ALSO LINES UP
WELL WITH SPC HAVING THAT SAME AREA IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS RISK
AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINLY BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 80S FRI AS WELL.

01

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER/UPPER LVL PATTERN WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SLOW-MOVING UPR LVL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING UPR RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A WEAK
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.

DEEP YET RATHER WEAK SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION YIELDING ISOLD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT/SUN. FUELED MAINLY FROM SFC HEATING AND
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM GIVEN
INSTABILITY FIELDS. MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 80S TO NEAR 90F ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WITH 80-85F TEMPS NORTH
GA. EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON/TUES)...SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL "FEATURE"
WILL APPROACH AND GRADUALLY CROSS THE MS RIVER. THIS WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE AND UPR LVL SUPPORT/LIFT. DIURNAL CONVECTION/REMNANT MCS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ENHANCE INITIATION AND INTENSITY BUT STILL
NOT LOOKING AT ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH-IMPACT EVENT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST THE UPR LVL LOW BECOMING CUT-OFF SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WESTERN
MS AND SOUTHEAST TX BY WED/THU WITH A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
/PWAT VALUES AOA 1.5"/ REMAINING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS MS/AL/TN
AND GA.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN INTO NEXT WEEK MAY BE THE LOCALIZED
FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING THREAT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF A MACON TO COLUMBUS LINE...THAT RECEIVE 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL EACH DAY OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS. SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND
AND MONITOR.

DJN.83



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AT THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES. MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. DIURNAL CU EXPECTED DURING PEAK HEATING TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT SPEEDS
OVERNIGHT MAY END UP BEING LESS THAN 5KT. MAIN PRECIP AXIS SHOULD
BE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL SITES TOMORROW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          65  85  64  86 /  30  20  10  10
ATLANTA         67  84  66  85 /  30  30  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     62  80  61  80 /  60  40  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    64  85  64  86 /  40  40  20  20
COLUMBUS        67  88  66  88 /  20  20  10  10
GAINESVILLE     66  83  65  84 /  30  40  20  10
MACON           63  88  64  88 /  20  10   5  10
ROME            65  85  64  86 /  50  50  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  64  85  63  86 /  30  30  10  10
VIDALIA         65  88  67  87 /  10   5   5  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...


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