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000
FXUS62 KFFC 100732
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
332 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL GA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY IS DIFFICULT TO FIND
WITHIN THE WIND FIELD...AND BETTER NOTED WITHIN THE TEMP/DEWPOINT
FIELDS. OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS WOUND DOWN TO A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA. DO EXPECT A BREAK IN THE PRECIP FOR
THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING...BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE NUMEROUS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITHIN THE DEEPER MOISTURE. LATER FORECASTS
MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED...DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS. PWATS ARE FAIRLY HIGH AND ARE JUST UNDER 2 INCHES.
THE HIGH PWATS IN COMBINATION WITH A NICE INVERTED V IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT AN ISOLD SEVERE STORM IS
POSSIBLE. EVEN THE SUB-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA
ON FRIDAY.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA S AND E OF MCN WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE S OF A STATIONARY FRONT.

THE PATTERN IS VERY SUMMER LIKE WITH HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WILL
INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLIGHTLY WITH THE
MAIN EFFECTS OF THE FRONT BEING FELT ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ON TUESDAY
WITH POPS RUNNING 60-70 PERCENT AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES MOVE OVER THE AREA.

LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE FRONT CAN NE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...MOST
SO OVER CENTRAL GA.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
TO THE AREA THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY CLEARED OUT THIS MORNING...A FEW MVFR CLOUDS
MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE...BUT NOT CONFIDENT THAT THE MVFR DECK
WILL GO BKN. DIURNAL CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND
SETTLE BETWEEN 040 AND 045. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ATL...AND SHOULD PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
TSRA TODAY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH CONFIDENCE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AIRPORT FOR A PROB30.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          88  70  90  69 /  50  30  30  20
ATLANTA         87  71  89  71 /  40  30  30  10
BLAIRSVILLE     81  63  84  62 /  40  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    87  67  90  67 /  40  30  20  10
COLUMBUS        88  72  93  73 /  60  30  30  10
GAINESVILLE     86  69  88  70 /  40  30  30  20
MACON           90  71  91  69 /  60  40  40  20
ROME            88  67  91  67 /  40  20  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  87  69  90  68 /  50  30  30  10
VIDALIA         91  73  89  72 /  60  40  60  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA