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000
FXUS62 KFFC 310542
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1242 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS NOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLEAR OR NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN QUICKLY
TOWARD SUNSET BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FOR SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP CHANCES.

WIND ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 23Z AT LEAST FOR NOW. STILL SOME HIGHER GUSTS
TO AROUND 35 MPH THAT WILL DECREASE QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT
AND AROUND TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY RUNNING NEAR TO 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

BDL

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LONG TERM
FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON SEVERAL PRECIPITATION
EVENTS...THE FIRST BEING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...SO HAVE RAMPED UP POPS A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY MORNING...AND
MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE STATE...HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION
OF WINTRY PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH
THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. THOUGH THERE REMAINS DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE ROBUSTNESS OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH ACCUMULATIONS CONSISTENT
WITH A DUSTING /LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH/.

THE SOUTHEAST SEES A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ZONAL FLOW RESUMING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS REPRIEVE IS THEN
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE MID WEEK AS A
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO USHERS PRECIPITATION
BACK TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MODELS HEAVILY DIFFER ON THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE AND THE TIMING OF ONSET AND
OFFSET. WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S BOTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING...HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR A FEW HOURS
EACH MORNING. FOR NOW...THIS WINTRY PRECIP AREA DOES ENCOMPASS THE
ATL METRO AREA AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS MORE CLOSELY AS THIS
EVENT APPROACHES. FOR NOW...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

31/01

01

FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 25 PERCENT OR LESS CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER MANY LOCATIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SHORT
DURATIONS SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NE MOUNTAINS WHERE LOW
RH/S OF 15-25 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR 3-6 HOURS. WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE
NEEDED IF THESE FORECAST CONDITIONS PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WITH JUST AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. 20K FT CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO 15K FT BY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT NO RA EXPECTED
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OUTSIDE OF THIS TAF PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  34  55  43 /   0   5  60  80
ATLANTA         53  38  54  41 /   0   5  70  80
BLAIRSVILLE     52  33  47  36 /   0   5  70  80
CARTERSVILLE    52  35  51  39 /   0   5  70  80
COLUMBUS        55  38  58  46 /   0   5  70  80
GAINESVILLE     52  36  50  40 /   0   5  60  80
MACON           55  35  61  47 /   0   0  60  80
ROME            52  34  50  38 /   0   5  70  80
PEACHTREE CITY  53  34  55  42 /   0   5  70  80
VIDALIA         57  36  65  54 /   0   0  30  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...DEESE