Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 240837
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
337 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. INDICATIONS ARE
PASSAGE WILL BE GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA AND I
HAVE KEPT POPS CONFINED MAINLY TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY REMAIN. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
EARLY IN THE DAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SHEAR IS PRESENT DUE TO STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS
BUT IS GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT
APPEAR LIKELY. FRONT STALLS OUT SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE
REGION. MOISTURE RETURNS TUESDAY FROM THE SOUTH AS A STRONG SHORT
WAVE DIGS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INDUCING FAIRLY RAPID
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS WHICH KEEPS THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH AND EAST OF
OUR AREA...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

20


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA AND UP THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD SHOWERS
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
HIGHEST POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEAST GA TUESDAY NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THIS...HOWEVER NOT LOOKING FOR ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. MODEL THICKNESS VALUES VARY SOME OVER THIS AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT FOR NOW SEEMS AS THOUGH THE CRITICAL THICKNESS
VALUES STAY WEST OF THE AREA. SHOWERS ENDING FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER
FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY BUT GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DRY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT A FRONT GETS PUSHED INTO THE TN VALLEY ON
SUNDAY AND THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH.

41


&&

AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE...
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY WITH UNLIMITED
VISIBILITY. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z...WITH AREAS OF LIFR CEILINGS...
CONTINUING THROUGH 12-14Z WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILINGS
AROUND 14Z. MOST AREAS VFR BY 17-19Z. MAY SEE SCATTERED MVFR
VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z AS WELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. SOUTHWEST WINDS
6-10KT THROUGH 14Z...INCREASING TO 10-14KT W/ GUSTS 18-24KT AND
BECOMING WESTERLY AFTER 14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
OF TRANSITION FROM IFR TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR CEILINGS DURING
THE DAY MONDAY.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  41  57  40 /  20  10  10  60
ATLANTA         67  41  56  39 /  10  10  10  50
BLAIRSVILLE     63  36  54  36 /  20  10  10  50
CARTERSVILLE    64  38  55  38 /  10  10  10  40
COLUMBUS        73  44  57  41 /  20  10  20  70
GAINESVILLE     66  40  55  39 /  10  10  10  50
MACON           74  44  58  41 /  20  20  40  80
ROME            63  36  55  37 /  10  10  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  68  37  56  38 /  10  10  10  60
VIDALIA         77  51  60  45 /  50  30  60  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20



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