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000
FXUS62 KFFC 170302
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1102 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

.UPDATE...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE LOW NOW EXTENDING FROM A
ROME TO BIRMINGHAM LINE WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH ATHENS
AND COLUMBIA. SOME INDICATIONS OF A WEAK LOW BEGINNING TO FORM OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WHICH WILL BE A BIG PLAYER FOR OUR
WEATHER GOING FORWARD WRT HOW QUICKLY IT FORMS. SOUTH FLOW ALONG
AND AHEAD OF LOW ALLOWED CLEARING SKIES TO DEVELOP LATE AS WELL AS AN
ASSOCIATED AXIS OF INSTABILITY WHICH NOT ONLY INCREASED THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BUT ALSO PRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT.

SPC SREF INDICATES SHORT TERM TRENDS WILL BE FOR THE LITTLE
INSTABILITY THERE IS OUT THERE TO DIE OFF BUT A LITTLE CONCERNED
ABOUT DEWPOINTS WHICH WERE SUPPOSED TO BE IN THE MID 50S ARE NOW
IN THE LOWER 60S AND SURGING NORTHWARD. MODELS MAY NOT BE PICKING
UP ON THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY OUT THERE SO PLAN ON KEEPING
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...POPS MAY BE A
LITTLE HIGH BUT AGAIN POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ACTIVITY TO FILL IN
SO AM HESITANT TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS POINT.


&&

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHIFTING EAST/SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BIT OF A DRY SLOT IMPACTING THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY I
HAVE RETAINED FAIRLY HIGH POPS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STILL
SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
UNTIL THE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST/SOUTH. STILL MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE WEDGE...BUT BETTER
LOW-LEVEL AND MEDIUM DEPTH SHEAR IS ALREADY SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. I WILL BE CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE FOR
THUNDER OUTSIDE OF THE WEDGE DOMINATED AREAS INTO THE EVENING. THE
WEDGE SHOULD HOLD ON FROM THE METRO AREA NORTHEAST AND EAST...EVEN
IN THE FACE OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. IF FACT MODELS ARE
FORTIFYING THE WEDGE SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE LOW
RE-DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. SOURCE AIRMASS FOR THE
WEDGE IS RELATIVELY MILD SO WE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY EXTREME EFFECTS IN
OUR NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES.

ONLY A FEW MINOR HYDROLOGIC ISSUES HAVE CROPPED UP FROM TODAYS RAIN
AND ADDITIONAL QPF TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY ARE MORE MODEST AS THE
RICHER MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST AND PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE SCATTERED
IN NATURE.

20

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AS LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK
AND CANNOT JUSTIFY NOTABLE ADJUSTMENTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014/

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRAVERSING THE
STATE MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE A SURFACE LOW PUSHES OFF THE SOUTHEAST
GA COAST. THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WILL HELP STRENGTHEN A COLD
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING DOWN THE EASTERN APPALACHIANS...
RESULTING IN A COOL... CLOUDY TUESDAY... WITH PATCHES OF
OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAIN... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT
A MOIST SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRUN THE
COOL NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW... WARRANTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS NORTH GA TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING.
PREFER THE FASTER AND MORE PERSISTENT GFS FOR NOW WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ECMWF
AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. WILL SHOW A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. NO THUNDER
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH LACK OF INSTABILITY AND STRONG
UPPER SUPPORT NOTED.

39

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
YET ANOTHER COMPLEX SCENARIO ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING
WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM COLUMBIA THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA
INCLUDING THE ATL TERMINALS AND THEN INTO A SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHERN ALABAMA. ACTUALLY HAVE HAD SOME CLEARING OVER ALABAMA AND
NOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA.
QUESTION BECOMES DOES THIS ACTIVITY SHIFT OVER OUR AREA OR DOES IT
DISSIPATE AND LOW CIGS AND EAST WINDS OF WEDGE PREVAIL. GIVEN HOW
CLOSE WE ARE TO SUNSET...EXPECT STORMS TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA
AND LOW CIGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. WILL
ALSO SEE A RETURN TO SOME LIGHT RAIN AS WELL. TO THE SOUTH...MORE
PROBLEMATIC BUT ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR AND THEN
BECOMING ALL IFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  47  39  49 /  80  60  60  40
ATLANTA         50  54  42  55 /  60  60  50  20
BLAIRSVILLE     45  48  40  51 /  70  50  50  30
CARTERSVILLE    51  55  41  56 /  60  50  50  20
COLUMBUS        57  64  47  62 /  70  60  50  20
GAINESVILLE     45  45  40  51 /  70  50  60  40
MACON           55  62  44  56 /  90  70  60  30
ROME            50  53  41  57 /  60  50  50  20
PEACHTREE CITY  51  57  43  55 /  60  60  50  20
VIDALIA         58  62  47  58 /  90  80  70  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...DEESE