Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 060802
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
402 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXITING LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS WEAKENING AND MOVING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOW OVER THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY IS STRENGTHENING AND BUILDING SOUTHWARD. THIS RIDGE SHOULD
BE CENTERED OVER LA/SOUTHERN MS BY 12Z SAT. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED SOME THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECTING THEM TO PICK BACK UP
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST
BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW TO THE EAST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO
OUR WEST. UNDER THIS SETUP NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEARING 30KTS
AGAIN APPEAR POSSIBLE. WILL BE REISSUING ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY
TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 12Z FRI TO 02Z SAT. TEMPS TODAY
WILL START OUT A BIT CHILLY WITH HIGHS GETTING UP INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 70S...LOWER TO MID 60S NE MOUNTAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GET
BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
SAT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

01


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS BUILD A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE CWA SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER DRY DAY ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPS. A SOUTHWEST FLOW
RETURNS MONDAY BRINGING IN GULF MOISTURE. FROM THIS POINT TO THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM THE MODELS ARE NOT IN SYNC WITH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. HAVE THEREFORE BROADBRUSHED
POPS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
LONG TERM. MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE DAYTIME HEATING SO HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS DURING THE DAY. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH
HIGHER POPS ACROSS NORTH GA WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE.
TEMPS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

17


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FUEL MOISTURES DRIED OUT SIGNIFICANTLY YESTERDAY BUT IT APPEARS THEY
ARE MOSTLY BORDERLINE FOR REACHING FIRE DANGER CRITERIA ACROSS
CENTRAL GA. WE WILL SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL GET DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THINGS APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL FOR NOW SO WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FIRE DANDER STATEMENT FOR NOW...BUT THINGS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE THE WIND SPEEDS TODAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO
STAY OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL START THIS
MORNING AROUND 8-12KT THEN INCREASE TO 20KT GUSTING TO 30KT BY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...GETTING
DOWN INTO THE 8-12KT RANGE BY 02Z. NO ISSUES EXPECTED WITH
VSBYS...CEILINGS...OR PRECIPITATION.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON THIS ELEMENT.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  50  80  59 /  10   5   5   5
ATLANTA         70  52  79  60 /   5   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     65  46  75  55 /  20  10  10  10
CARTERSVILLE    71  47  80  57 /   5   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        74  52  81  59 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     69  51  78  59 /   5   5   5   5
MACON           73  49  81  56 /   5   5   0   0
ROME            71  47  80  56 /   5   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  72  47  80  55 /   0   0   0   5
VIDALIA         75  52  81  60 /   5   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...
BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...
DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...
GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...
JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LAURENS...LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...
MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...
SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...
TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...
WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01



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