Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 030728
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
328 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
FL AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENING. THIS ALLOWS FOR A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE TO THE SE U.S. WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES
EMBEDDED. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE INCREASES AS WELL BUT FORECAST
INSTABILITY IS WEAK SO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS KINDA
LOW IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. IF MORE INSTABILITY CAN BE GENERATED...
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THURSDAY
EVENING.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR
THE AFTERNOON WITH WEAK NNW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL GA. OVERALL FORECAST INSTABILITY IS STILL
WEAK.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY AND ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.

BDL


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW/TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE SE US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
GFS HAS THE TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTHWARD DURING EARLY/MIDDLE NEXT WEEK
WHILE THE ECMWF DAMPENS THE TROUGH OUT TEMPORARILY AND GOING TOWARDS
A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

AT THE SURFACE...A PRETTY DECENT WEDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE WEDGE WILL LEAD TO CLOUDIER
SKIES...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HIGH CHANCE
POPS.

THE WEDGE DOES LOOK TO ERODE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
PROGGING A FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK.

NLISTEMAA


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU PERIOD. PATCHY MVFR FOG 08-12Z.
VARYING HIGH CLOUDS WITH 4500-10000 SCT CLOUDS AND SOME
5000-7000 BKN CEILINGS DURING THE DAY. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE
AFTER 18Z SO CONTINUING WITH PROB30 FOR -SHRA FOR NOW. CALM WINDS
BECOMING WNW LESS THAN 10 KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ANY LOWER CEILINGS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR ANY IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS OR STORMS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VSBYS AND WINDS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  70  93  70 /  20  20  30  30
ATLANTA         90  72  91  72 /  30  20  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     86  64  86  65 /  30  10  50  30
CARTERSVILLE    90  68  92  69 /  30  10  30  10
COLUMBUS        91  73  93  74 /  30  20  20  10
GAINESVILLE     88  70  89  70 /  30  20  30  30
MACON           90  70  92  71 /  20  20  30  20
ROME            90  68  92  69 /  20  10  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  90  69  91  69 /  30  20  30  10
VIDALIA         91  73  92  73 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...BDL


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