Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 230208

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1008 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

No changes to the forecast.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

High pressure will dominate the sensible weather through the short
term period.

The center of the high pressure will move eastward overnight into
the Middle Atlantic, shifting the winds to an easterly direction. A
wedge will build down the spine of the Appalachian mountains for
Thursday. The prolonged easterly flow will increase low level
moisture through Thursday night. Even though no measurable precip is
anticipated, low level clouds will be on the increase. A few peeks
in the clouds are possible tomorrow afternoon, but mostly mostly
cloudy conditions should be the norm.

Cooler (slightly below normal) high temperatures are anticipated for


.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

Progressive, spring-like pattern persists through the extended
forecast period. Medium-range models continue to be in surprisingly
good agreement through the period considering the active and high-
amplitude nature of the pattern, and little change was made to the
Long Term Forecast grids once again. Looks like there will be
sufficient instability to carry thunder in the grids by late Saturday
through Tuesday. Please see the previous Long Term Forecast
Discussion below.


Previous LONG TERM Discussion /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...

Surface high pressure anchored across the mid-Atlantic will remain in
control through Saturday. This high eventually shifting out to
sea with ridging aloft being undercut by an approaching trough
Saturday morning. Expect increasing clouds Saturday
afternoon/evening as the next storm system approaches. In the mid-
levels, a closed low dropping out of the Rockies will pivot
toward the Ohio River Valley through the weekend. A cold front
associated with this system will continue to track east across the
central CONUS, becoming washed out before reaching Georgia. In
addition, the dynamics associated with this system will lift north
as it approaches Saturday night into Sunday. Anticipate showers
will move into northwestern Georgia Saturday afternoon/evening.
With very little surface convergence and much of the energy within
the mid-levels waning, do not have the highest confidence that
this system will hold together, especially into Sunday. Therefore,
current thinking is highest pops across the far northern tier of
Georgia with the rest of the area experiencing scattered showers.
Also, given weak instability and shear, kept schc thunderstorm in
Saturday evening through Sunday. The system will lift to the north
with the front never making it into Georgia. The next impulse
(albeit weaker) will be taking a similar track approaching
Tuesday. This will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms for
the first half of the work-week.

Apart from normal temperatures expected Friday, we are forecasting
above normal temperatures through the rest of the long term as
southerly flow remains locked in across the region.




RH values may approach 25 percent or less across a small portion of
east central GA for four to five hours tomorrow afternoon. Fuel
moistures across the northern half of this area will remain moist,
but for the areas that didn`t receive rainfall on Tuesday, fuel
moistures may approach 7 percent during the afternoon. A High Fire
Danger statement may be needed for portions of east central GA, but
confidence is too low this afternoon to pinpoint a specific area.



00Z Update...
Mostly mid and high level cloudiness to impact the region through
the evening. Winds should shift over to the east side between
02-04z. MVFR ceilings developing around sunrise and continuing
into much of Thursday..some improvement by afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence all elements.



Athens          43  61  44  68 /   0   0   5  10
Atlanta         46  60  48  68 /   0   0   5  10
Blairsville     37  56  40  61 /   0   0   5  10
Cartersville    43  61  47  68 /   0   0   5  10
Columbus        52  67  52  74 /   5   5   5  10
Gainesville     42  57  45  64 /   0   0   5  10
Macon           50  65  47  73 /   5   0   5  10
Rome            42  63  47  69 /   0   0   5  10
Peachtree City  46  62  47  70 /   0   0   5  10
Vidalia         51  66  50  74 /   0   0   0  10




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