Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000
FXUS62 KFFC 281127
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
726 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS NORTH GA THIS MORNING. THIS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING JUST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. HI-RES MODELS SHOW THE CURRENT CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS NORTH GA WEAKENING EARLY THIS MORNING TO MAINLY JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE ATLANTA METRO
AREA BY 6 AM TO 8 AM THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING TREND IS
NOTED AND EXPECTED... MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 20-30KT
WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE NOTED ACROSS NORTH GA THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD
OF THE CONVECTION. THIS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST AS THE CONVECTION PUSHES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER... SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE GREATEST STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS
CENTRAL GA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO A MUCH MORE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING MAX DAYTIME HEATING. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES TOWARD A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BETWEEN 4-6 PM THIS
AFTERNOON... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONGER STORMS FIRING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MLCAPE CAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG...
COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT MID LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT RISK AREA
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD PUSH
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 8-10 PM THIS EVENING... WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

A MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS... AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY STRUGGLE TO
GET INTO THE MID 80S FOR NORTH GA... UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S LOOK
REASONABLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL GA ON TUESDAY.

39


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES IN OVER
THE REGION AND SETTLES IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH
PULLS IN SOME DRIER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUE/WED. BY THU MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH DAYS 6 AND 7.

01


&&


.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 14-16Z
THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY SPOTTY SHOWERS
THAT MIGHT DEVELOP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT... SW WINDS SHIFT NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12-14KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE A CLEARING OF
CLOUDS BY 17-18Z. NW WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 10KTS BY 01-03Z THIS
EVENING... BUT REMAIN AROUND 7-9KTS OVERNIGHT. SKC AND NW WINDS
AROUND 7-9KTS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONCERNING CONVECTION... HIGH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  64  87  64 /  50  10   5   5
ATLANTA         89  66  85  65 /  50  10   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     82  60  79  55 /  30  10  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    88  62  84  61 /  50   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        95  67  89  66 /  50  20   5   5
GAINESVILLE     89  65  84  64 /  50  10   5   5
MACON           97  65  90  63 /  60  20   5   5
ROME            88  62  85  61 /  40   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  90  63  85  60 /  50  10   5   5
VIDALIA         98  71  91  67 /  70  60   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...39








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