Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 221940
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
240 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

500MB low and surface low are not both located just offshore from
the Florida Big Bend area. These systems will continue to push
slowly east across the FL peninsula through the overnight hours and
finally into the western Atlantic by early Thursday.

SE fetch off of the Atlantic has provided abundant low level
moisture to much of the area. A few peeks of sunshine have allowed
some minimal surface instability to develop, and showers continue to
pop up across the central and southern portions of the CWFA. The
best instability should be right along the GA/FL line and have added
a chance of thunder. The hi-res models have had a very difficult
time latching onto current patterns, and the radar progs are poorly
initialized. Have tried to orient pops according to the latest
trends. Overall, pops (and thunder chances) should decrease with the
loss of heating and as the low(s) continue to pull off to the east.

The best chances for pops on Thursday will be in the east as low
level moisture continues to stream in from the Atlantic. However,
pops will remain very low.

Temps will continue very warm for this time of year. Values 10-20
degrees above normal are possible.

NListemaa


.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

The main story at the beginning of the extended will be the very
warm temperatures expected on Friday. Current forecast temperatures
well into the 70s and low 80s will likely come very close to or set
daily records at area climate sites for the date. Overnight Friday
night, showers and thunderstorms will move into the state from the
northwest and steadily move eastward Saturday morning ahead of a
cold front. The best chance for thunderstorms in our area will be in
north Georgia during this timeframe. Any severe thunderstorms are
still expected to remain north of the state closer to the parent
system and better dynamics. A gradual weakening trend to this
convection is expected as this activity pushes east early Saturday
morning with waning instability. Many locations farther south in
central Georgia may only see a few showers if anything as this front
moves through.

Saturday will be breezy as high pressure builds into the region. A
brief reprieve from the well above normal temperatures is expected
as cooler and drier conditions filter in by Saturday night into
Sunday. Lows Sunday morning will be near freezing in north Georgia,
which is only a bit below average for late February.

Temperatures will quickly rebound back above normal early next week.
Latest model solutions have trended wetter for late Monday in
association with a quick moving disturbance, so PoPs were increased
across north Georgia. With additional disturbances moving within the
southwest flow aloft, showers will remain possible across north
Georgia early next week. Shower and thunderstorm chances then
increase areawide by Wednesday as a cold front approaches the area.

RW


.CLIMATE...

Records for 02-23

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      79 2012     34 1989     57 1922     18 1939
                1980
   KATL      79 1980     32 1901     62 1909     19 1939
   KCSG      83 1996     37 1989     67 1962     18 1963
   KMCN      81 1980     37 1901     66 1909     22 1963
                1909



Records for 02-24

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      81 1930     37 1947     58 1944     19 1989
                                                    1967
                                                    1947
   KATL      77 1982     35 1907     64 1890     17 1989
                                                    1947
   KCSG      81 1930     38 1901     61 1979     21 1989
   KMCN      79 1985     36 1901     62 1961     18 1901
                1930

&&

AVIATION... 18Z Update... Shower chances should continue to
decrease for the remainder of the afternoon. BKN/OVC MVFR cigs
will be the rule through the early evening. IFR/LIFR cigs possible
again overnight, breaking by late morning tomorrow. Winds will
remain on the east side.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low to medium confidence cigs. Otherwise, high confidence.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          54  74  54  79 /  50  20  10   5
Atlanta         57  72  57  78 /  50   5   5   5
Blairsville     50  68  50  72 /  50  20   5  10
Cartersville    54  71  54  77 /  50   5   5   5
Columbus        57  75  55  80 /  40   5   0   0
Gainesville     54  70  54  75 /  50  20   5   5
Macon           56  77  54  81 /  50  10   5   0
Rome            53  72  53  77 /  40   5   0   5
Peachtree City  54  73  52  78 /  40  10   5   0
Vidalia         59  78  57  82 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...NListemaa



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