Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 282348
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
748 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 252 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016/
SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
North and central Georgia area sits between TD #2 - which is approx.
150 miles off the South Carolina coast - and a weakening upper level
wave over the lower MS Valley. 12Z sounding at ATL measured a very
dry 0.71" precipitable water value. Dry air is being mixed well down
to the surface with 18-19z dewpts dropping to the upr 40s-lwr 50s
across much of the area. Visible satellite imagery shows eroding CU
field expanding around ATL metro area as mixing occurs.
Next update from National Hurricane Center is not until 5PM EST but
all signs point to TD #2 becoming Tropical Storm Bonnie. Mid and
high level moisture (clouds) will continue to increase across the
area tonight. Daytime heating will help trigger widely scattered
showers w/ isold storms from Sandersville to Vidalia through sunset
this evening, otherwise much of the area will remain dry tonight.
By Sunday, as TD #2 (potential TS Bonnie) moves just inland along
the SC coast, the potential for showers/isold storms will increase
across northeast and east-central Georgia, mainly east/north of I-75
and I-16. Not expecting much westward progression of rain/storms due
to upr lvl ridge building across MS and AL. Little change in temps
tonight through tomorrow night. As tropical "low" advances inland,
sfc winds will become more Northerly with some gusts 20-25MPH
possible across our far southeastern counties - Milledgeville to
Swainsboro to Eastman.
LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
Overall forecast thoughts parallel previous shift with limited pops
through early week, then increasing diurnal storm chances mid week
onward. Best rain chances still appear to be later in the week and
into the weekend. Have only made minor adjustments to the max/min
temperatures and weekend pops to account for latest model trends.
Previous forecast discussion still applies and is included below.
Models in better consensus with main influencing features of fcst
period. The either tropical depression or storm approaching the SC
coast should slowly turn north to NE late Sunday then hug the
coastline placing it off the NC Outerbanks by late Wednesday. Weak
subsidence west of this system should limit diurnally driven
convection across the CWA into Monday then the chances gradually
increase thru the week with greatest potential Wednesday thru
Friday as we get a south to southwest fetch of deep gulf moisture
and ramped up instability. Some discrepancies exist among
guidance in the evolution of a weak 850-mb low translated from an
amplifying upper trough into the southeast CONUS by
Friday/Saturday. While this could serve to focus more organized or
widespread storm development...the environment should be favorable
of at least scattered coverage anyway with daytime heating.
Above normal temps /AOA 3-7 degrees more than climo/ are on tap
this week with Tuesday expected to be the warmest as progged highs
in the upper 80s to low 90s should be reached for most areas.
Better cloud coverage and storm potential after midweek should
keep local temps moderated a bit more.
VFR conditions will prevail through this forecast period. will see
some increased mid and high level cloud cover associated with the
approaching tropical system...but that is about all the TAF sites
will have to endure. Easterly winds will gradually become north/northwest
by 12z-14z Sun with wind speeds staying 10kt or less. SHRA/TSRA should
remain east of ATL/MCN but cannot rule out a pop-up SHRA after
15z Sunday. will leave it out of the TAF sites for now until we
can get a better handle on just where things will develop Sunday.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 63 84 65 90 / 20 30 20 20
Atlanta 67 86 68 88 / 5 20 10 20
Blairsville 58 82 62 83 / 10 30 20 30
Cartersville 60 88 62 89 / 10 20 10 20
Columbus 65 89 67 91 / 5 10 10 20
Gainesville 65 84 66 87 / 10 20 20 20
Macon 63 88 64 91 / 10 10 10 20
Rome 60 89 64 89 / 10 10 10 20
Peachtree City 61 87 63 89 / 5 10 10 20
Vidalia 68 86 67 90 / 20 20 10 20