Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 301016
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
416 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS UPPER
TROF PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL MONTANA AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BRINGS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH MONTANA TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE BEHIND THE UPPER
WAVE FOR MONDAY WITH STACKED WESTERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE SMOKE.
SHOWERS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY COULD CLEAR SOME OF THE SMOKE OUT
OF THE AIR...BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ON MONDAY
EXPECT THE SMOKE WILL RETURN. VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED ALONG THE
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY...BUT STILL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. WILL
KEEP THE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY GOING AS HAVE SOME EXPECTATION OF
VISIBILITY DROPPING AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH. EBERT

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH HOT HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DESERTS SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS AND A WARM RIDGE RUNNING
OUT OF COLORADO AND THEN MOVING NORTH UP THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
EASTERN MONTANA. A CLOSED LOW SETS OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND IS GENERATING UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... RIDGE WILL HAVE THE MOST
INFLUENCE DURING THIS TIME. EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES WAITING FOR
AN UPPER LEVEL FRONT TO MOVE IN AND BEGIN MIXING DOWNWARD
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA. CHANCES FOR A SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
DURING THIS TIME... BUT... MODELS HAVE NOT ESTABLISHED A SINGLE
JET OR WAVE FEATURES TO LATCH ONTO AND EACH MODEL IS A LITTLE
DIFFERENT IN WHERE THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL FORM OR MOVE.

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT... SYNOPTIC TROUGH BASE TO THE WEST MOVES
INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AND FURTHER DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

SUNDAY ONWARD... MODELS BEGIN HAVING TROUBLE WITH SYNOPTIC
FEATURES HERE... BUT THE GENERAL OUTCOME IS FOR THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH TO BE OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA OR HAVE JUST MOVED SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE AT THEIR LOWEST DURING THIS TIME AND
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BACK OFF SLIGHTLY.  GAH



&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: IFR - VFR

SMOKE: THERE CONTINUES TO BE A MIX OF LOW LEVEL OBSCURATIONS FROM
WILDFIRE SMOKE AND MID LEVEL CIGS AROUND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION. THE RESULT IS MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1SM
TO 5SM AT THE KGGW AND KOLF TERMINALS. KSDY AND KGDV APPEAR TO BE
JUST AT THE EDGE OF THE SMOKE PLUME AND THEREFORE DO NOT APPEAR TO
BE RECEIVING AS DENSE OF COVERAGE WITH VSBYS STILL IN VFR. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT COULD
ALLEVIATE SOME OF THE SMOKE.

AREA WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING... THEN
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TEMPORARY INCREASE TO 10-15KT DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT MONDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW


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