Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 030242
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
842 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...FRONT STILL ON TRACK FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE REGION FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AREA. PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGING THAT BROUGHT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS
BROKEN DOWN BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. WITH THAT SAID MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO RULE THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF PHILLIPS AND VALLEY COUNTIES. WEDNESDAY
MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN AREA BUT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED IN NATURE...MAINLY NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL COME
SWEEPING THROUGH...INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHEAST MONTANA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR FORT
PECK LAKE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ALLOWING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF AND
WINDS TO DECREASE. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL BE COOL IN NATURE...WITH MAX
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE MID 60S ON THURSDAY. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE GOING FORECAST IS IN OVERALL EXCELLENT SHAPE DEPICTING DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS ARE
STILL HINTING AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING COOLER MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE TUESDAY TIME-FRAME. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
WERE MADE. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING BUT THE MOISTURE STAYS TO THE NORTH SO LOOK FOR
DRY WEATHER.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON SUNDAY TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT TO ZONAL. THEN...
THE FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MONTANA NEXT TUESDAY. AT THIS
POINT...GFS HAS MORE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH DEEPER MORE LONGWAVE LIKE TROUGH WITH A
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS
STARTING LATE MONDAY AND GOING INTO NEXT TUESDAY. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...

A WEAK UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN A STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AND ENERGETIC THUNDERSTORMS. WIND WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY.
THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXPEND MOST OF ITS ENERGY IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...BUT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY INITIATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TERMINALS THAT COULD BRIEFLY BRING ABOUT
LESS THAN VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

WINDS: TONIGHT...EASTERLY WIND AT 5-10KT NEAR KGGW. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 15-20KTS BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT NEAR
NOON.

SCT


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT GLASGOW CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOW
FALL...BUT NOT FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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