Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 071750
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1050 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
TRIMMED THE HIGH WIND WARNING A BIT, TAKING OUT VALLEY, DANIELS
AND WESTERN ROOSEVELT COUNTY ZONES. DAWSON, WIBAUX AND PRARIE
COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY AND WAS NOT QUITE
CONFIDENT TO CANCEL FOR OTHER WARNED ZONES. TFJ

854 AM UPDATE...
PRECIPITATION AND MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING BUT WE`RE GOING TO CONTINUE TO DEAL
WITH THE WINDS. THEY PROBABLY WON`T REACH THE HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA, BUT PUBLIC PERCEPTION SAYS THAT IT`S VERY WINDY STILL.
ALSO NW FLOW CAN BE TRICKY. BUT IF WINDS DECIDE TO DIMINISH, MAY
CANCEL PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY BEGINS WITH AN AMPLIFIED WAVE PATTERN ACROSS CONUS...A
BUILDING RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST AND A LONG-WAVE TROUGH
AND UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THESE TWO AIR MASSES
WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THUS TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
TODAY THAN SATURDAY. THE LOW TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO BACKDOOR
LOW STRATUS AND ISOLATED PRECIPITATION FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES
TODAY.

THE OTHER QUESTION CONCERNS THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE HIGH WIND
WARNING. WINDS ALOFT AT 700MB WILL CONTINUE AT 50KT TODAY...
EXCLUDING WESTERN COUNTIES. MIXING OF WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE
WILL NOT BE AS EFFICIENT AS SATURDAY...THEN PRETTY MUCH END BY 00Z
TODAY. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AFTER 06Z. THEREFORE WILL LEAVE THE NPW
THAT EXPIRES AT 00Z IN PLACE FOR NOW...SINCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BECOME A BIGGER
INFLUENCE NUDGING THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER TO THE
EAST...DIRECTLY OVER NE MONTANA. THIS WILL BEGIN TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AGAIN...UP TO 20F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING IN LIMITED MOISTURE TO OVERRIDE THE
BOUNDARY THIS WILL INCREASE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
GENERATE VIRGA OR REALLY LIGHT SHOWERS. SCT

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST WITH ANOTHER TROF
PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND.

LEE TROF/QUASI ARCTIC BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A FEW RIPPLES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES DROPS THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON TIMING AND IF THE WAVE WILL PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION
SO KEPT POPS LOW.

FORECAST IS THEN DRY AND MILD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER STRONG
PACIFIC TROF PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND.
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE STRONG WINDS TTHIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD
CALM NEAR SUNSET. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. SOME LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL MAINLY STAY EAST OF KSDY
TODAY.

SURFACE WINDS: FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY AT 25-35KTS
GUSTING TO 50KTS AT TIMES... DIMINISHING QUICKLY TO LESS THAN 10
TO 15 KTS AFTER SUNSET.

 /GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DAWSON...
EASTERN ROOSEVELT...MCCONE...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...
WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW


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