Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 260254

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
854 PM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Thu...

A weak boundary remains across Northeast Montana this evening.
Ahead of the front skies are fair and temperatures are dropping
faster than expected. Updated temperatures down a few degrees for
the northeastern 1/3rd of the region. Minor adjustments to the
other elements for tonight.        Proton

Previous Discussion

A weak low pressure trough kicked off some light showers, which
are now moving into far eastern and northeastern Montana. The
trough and associated showers will be moving out of Montana
between 530 pm to 630 pm.

Tonight through Wednesday, an upper level ridge of high pressure
will continue across eastern Montana. The high pressure ridge
will continue to allow weakening disturbance to move over the
area. Latest forecasts continue to show that as these systems pass
through the NE Montana they are forecast to bring mainly high to
mid clouds with very low chances for showers.

Thursday, the upper level high pressure ridge will be at its
strongest with the highest heights. Thursday weather will bring
mild temperatures and dry conditions and light winds.

.LONG TERM...Thu night through Tue...

The long term forecast period will be highlighted by an overall
unsettled weather pattern with multiple small-scale short-wave
ridges and troughs throughout.

Overall synoptic-scale model agreement is fairly good through
Monday, but falls apart thereafter. Locally, precip amounts and
placements already show some disagreements as early as this Friday
evening. GFS, DGEX, and MOS guidance all want to keep a band of
rain showers south of the Missouri River while the EC persists in
bringing those rainshowers mainly north of the Missouri River
through Saturday morning. Tried to blend these two camps and favor
the larger consensus a bit more.

Any further chances for precipitation are quick in passing and of
poorer model agreement reflecting the decrease in forecast
confidence this far out in time. The colder temperatures expected
after this weekend would probably give a rain and snow mix to any
precipitation which happens to fall.





A weak frontal system moving through Alberta and Saskatchewan
tonight will stay mostly north of Northeast Montana. Its main
effect will be increasing clouds through Wednesday.

Wind will remain mostly light tonight but veer from the east to
the west after midnight. Expect 5-10kt Wednesday.





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