Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 031600
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1000 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPDATE...THE GOING FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS
TO REMOVE CLOUD COVER AND POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING
AS THE LATEST MODEL/SATELLITE/RADAR DATA ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH
THREAT THERE THIS MORNING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...REDUCED VISIBILITY CONTINUES TO BE AN
ONGOING CONCERN ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO
SMOKE. IN ADDITION...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES IN SOME PLACES SO WILL ALSO CARRY A MENTION OF PATCHY
MORNING FOG.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY THOUGH
00Z MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. RADAR
ECHOES APPROACHING PETROLEUM COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
DIMINISHED BUT WILL CARRY ISOLATED POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST IN THE
OFF CHANCE THAT UPPER WAVE IS ABLE TO KICK OFF ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. THIS WAVE MAY PROVIDE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT NEAR
THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND AN OUTSIDE
SHOT OF A THUNDERSTORM MAY EXIST BY THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING.

OTHERWISE...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO SATURDAY WITH HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
THE 00Z FORECAST 850MB TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON RANGE
FROM NEAR +20C NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER TO +28C ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES. FACTORING IN PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
LENDS SUPPORT TO MID AND UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...ESPECIALLY YELLOWSTONE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S NORTH. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG
SURFACED BASED CAPE AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
AT NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOK TO HOLD AROUND 1 INCH
DURING THE TIME. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY HELP KICK OFF AN
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...BUT BETTER
FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY BE ASSOCIATED DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WITH A LITTLE SHEAR IN
PLACE...PULSING MULTICELLULAR STRUCTURES AND A FEW SUPERCELLS IF
SHEAR INCREASES A BIT IN THE EVENING AS NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
COULD BE POSSIBLE. IF ANYTHING A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL ARE A POSSIBILITY...BUT A LONE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND WANTED TO DESCRIBE THIS
POTENTIAL IN A BIT OF DETAIL GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY TO IMPACT
HOLIDAY PLANS. THE RISK FOR SEVERE APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW...BUT
IS NON-ZERO AND SO CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE
FORECAST ALSO IS CLOSELY IN LINE WITH THINKING BY SPC...WHICH HAS
THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SATURDAY.

OTHER CONCERN SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY WILL BE DEVELOPING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN WAKE OF FROPA. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL
PROBABLY BE NECESSARY AT SOME POINT BUT THERE IS STILL OPPORTUNITY
TO REFINE TIMING. UPPER TROUGH IN PROXIMITY FOR SUNDAY WILL ALSO
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO MAINTAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH
INSTABILITY MUCH LESS AT THIS POINT SO NOT AS MUCH CHANCE FOR
THUNDER BY THAT TIME. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH NW FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE
WITH IT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DIFFER
ON HOW LONG TO LINGER THE MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER.

FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE ZONAL BY FRIDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR TO VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT.

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MVFR LEVEL VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING. SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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