Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 290252
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
852 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE ONLY UPDATE WAS TO REFRESH POPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR
WEAKENING ECHOES OVER THE SW ZONES. ALSO LOWERED SKY IN SOME
AREAS WITH A LOT OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. NOTED THAT TEMPS WILL
COOL OFF TO FREEZING IN SOME AREAS BY FRIDAY MORNING BUT DON/T
THINK THIS WILL CREATE IMPACTS. OTHERWISE, GOING FORECAST LOOKED
GOOD. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD WESTERN TROUGH WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON NORTHEAST MONTANA
AS A CLOSED SURFACE HIGH IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN NUDGES CLOSER
TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL DRIFT FARTHER
WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. BLENDED MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW IN SOUTHWEST ZONES. SO WILL KEEP MENTION
IN GRIDS. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE NORTHEAST. AREAS
ACROSS THE SOUTH THAT RECEIVED SNOW OR RAIN THIS MORNING MIGHT SEE
LOW CLOUDS OR FOG TONIGHT WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. ADDED PATCHY
FOG TO SOUTHERN AREAS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS INSIDE THE BROAD TROUGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT NORTHEAST MONTANA. A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGHS JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EAST...A
BRISK SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE SET UP FRIDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A
LAKE WIND HEADLINE JUST YET. FOR NOW...SUSTAINED WIND STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND 15KT. SATURDAY WINDS WILL RUN AROUND 10KT
OR LESS.

OVERALL...A DRY SHORT TERM IS EXPECTED WITH NEAR SEASONAL HIGHS.
THE TROUGH HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SCT



.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO CHANGES TO NOTE IN THE THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE A
QUIETER, WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN. FRANSEN

THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH THE
WESTERN CONUS REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...HOWEVER...LATEST 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. IN THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AND AMPLIFY AS TIME PROGRESS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRIER AND CONSIDERABLY
WARMER WEATHER PATTERN OVERALL. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: VFR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINAL LOCATIONS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

WINDS: EAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT... INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HICKFORD/GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW


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