Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 230905
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
305 AM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Sat...

There are a series of short-wave troughs moving across the
Northern Pacific, Western Canada, and the prairie provinces
today. Additionally, there is an open medium wave over the Great
Basin. Northeast Montana will see limited effects from the open
trough that mostly undercuts our area. A broad cold frontal
boundary will force storms from Mexico to southeast Montana to
Minnesota today. The band in southeast Montana might clip our
southeast zones with some rain today. Then tonight one of the weak
short-waves sends another cold front through our area, mainly
knocking overnight lows down to freezing again.

An upper ridge moves in late tonight and Friday. Surface flow will
be southerly to again warm daytime temperatures for another mild
day.

Saturday the next Pacific storm brings moisture into the Northern
Rockies, but models show the system splitting around Northeast
Montana. Showers will be hit and miss, not widespread, and with
little QPF.

Overall, temperatures will run warmer than normal through the
period.

Templer

.LONG TERM...Sat night through Thu...

A shortwave trough moves inland from the Pacific Saturday Night
and across Eastern Montana with a cold front on Sunday. At this
point, it looks like the chance for precipitation will be mainly
across the southern zones of the forecast area.

Shortwave ridge and surface high will allow for mainly dry weather
on Monday.

The next upper trough moves inland from the Pacific on Monday and
splits. The southern branch is forecasted to dig toward the
desert SW Monday Night and Tuesday. A moist southerly or southwest
flow aloft ahead of the trough is expected to extend into Montana
during this period with a good chance of rain for at least parts
of the forecast area for Monday Night, Tuesday and Tuesday Night.

The models have the northern branch trough moving into area
Tuesday Night and Wednesday shifting the moist flow from the
southern branch trough to the east. Expect drier weather to move
in from west to east.

An upper ridge will allow for dry weather Wednesday Night and
Thursday. Then, it looks like the next trough moves into the area
Thursday Night with a chance of rain. Forrester



&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CAT: VFR

SYNOPSIS: A storm system to the south of Montana will bring a mix
of mid and high clouds today. KGDV could see a brief rain shower
from the system this morning. The clouds will clear from west to
east this afternoon and evening as the system moves to the east
and high pressure builds into the area. Skies will be clear
tonight.

WIND: Light and variable this morning. Then switching to the west
to northwest at around 10 to 15 kts by afternoon. Winds will
become light and variable this evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Big Muddy Creek in Sheridan County continues to drop further
below flood stage. However, reports from law enforcement indicate
continued running water over area roadways. In addition, there is
concern with warmer temperatures that levels could rise again. In
order to gain additional confidence in the downward trend, and to
allow further time for running water to continue to recede on
local roadways, the flood warning was extended until 1245 pm
today.

The Milk River at Dodson has leveled off at 18.5 feet overnight.
The higher water will continue to move downstream with higher
river levels expected. These conditions will need further
monitoring into next week. Maliawco/Forrester


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow


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