Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 191954
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1254 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ON SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH MOVING
INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ONGOING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS
THE FA. THE ONLY WEATHER CONCERN SHOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR EASTERN FA.  THE NAM LOWERS BOUNDARY LAYER RH
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BELOW 60 PERCENT RH AS DRIER DEWPOINTS
ADVECT ACROSS THE FA WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WINDS. DUE TO THIS
DRYING TREND DO NOT PLAN TO INSERT PATCHY FOG IN THE EAST.

THE SNOW FIELD CONTINUES TO AFFECT TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH AND WEST AND LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOW 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION
MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.  BASED ON THE
LOWER LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELD...CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS...EXPECTING NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
START AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX.  OTHERWISE...ALL OTHER AREAS WILL RECEIVE
RAIN MONDAY MORNING.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SURFACE WARMING WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
TYPE IN THE AFTERNOON.  PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AFTER
SUNSET.  ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE FORECASTING BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES
OF SNOW...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THOSE FORECAST AMOUNTS DUE TO
RUNNING ACCUMULATIONS IN PERIODS OF PHASE CHANGE. THEREFORE...THE
FORECAST REFLECTS TOTAL VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH AT THIS TIME.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE TRI STATE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 40S.  BLENDED POP FORECAST WAS
HINTING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT
DECIDED TO ELIMINATE POPS DUE TO THE 500 MB AXIS BEING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z TUESDAY.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION WILL COME FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.  ALTHOUGH
THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT...GUIDANCE IS SEEMINGLY SLOWING
THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE AREA TOWARDS A THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY ARRIVAL. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE IN
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAINLY ON THE NORTHERN COLD SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS.  AT THIS
TIME...THINKING A LITTLE OVER AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.  THIS AMOUNT IS LIKELY TO CHANGE WITH FUTURE
FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST
AND A WEAK TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FOR KMCK INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME SHALLOW STRATUS OR LIGHT FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER
DEWPOINT TRENDS ARE DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WEST WIND
ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. PLAN ON LEAVING STRATUS/LIGHT
FOG OUT FOR NOW.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...FS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.