Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 030028
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
628 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A CONVERGENT SURFACE BOUNDARY SUPPORTED BY A FEW SMALL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ALOFT ARE CAUSING ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
EARLY THIS EVENING...SO ISSUED AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST THUNDERSTORM TRENDS. RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES
A CAPE AXIS THAT APPEARS TO FOLLOW HIGHWAY 83 WITH INCREASING
VALUES TO THE EAST...SO NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STORMS TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE HIGHWAY. WITH SOME AVAILABLE CAPE TO THE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83...CURRENTLY EXPECTING STORMS TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD
BEFORE TAPERING OFF JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT MDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO DURING THIS
TIME.

LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS
TONIGHT. A MINOR SHORTWAVE CAN BE OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER EASTERN WYOMING. PLAN ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST
FA TONIGHT. STRONGER FORCING STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE FA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST FA DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS THERE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE EAST.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE EASTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON TIMING/EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH
TWO DISTINCT SPLITS. THE STRONGEST OF THEM WILL BE NORTH...HOWEVER
THE SOUTHER SPLIT APPEARS TO TRACK OVER OUR CWA...AND WHILE THERE
ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS (GFS SHOWS CLOSED H7 LOW OVER
OUR CWA)...IMPACTS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR WITH STRONGER PRECIP SIGNAL
DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA WHERE I HAVE LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. NAM CONTINUES TO
SHOW A DRIER SIGNAL DESPITE FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...SO
I LEANED TOWARDS OTHER GUIDANCE IN POP/QPF. THE TREND IS ALSO
QUICKER ON CLEARING CONDITIONS TUESDAY WHICH WILL FAVOR A QUICKER
RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES AS WESTERLY FLOW/SUBSIDENCE SPREADS EAST.
NAM DOES INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE PLAINS
BEHIND THIS FIRST/STRONGER FEATURE...HOWEVER WITH LITTLE CONSISTENCY
I DECIDED TO FAVOR CONDITIONS CLEARING FROM THE SW TO NE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

REGARDING IMPACTS...VERY MOIST AIR MASS...SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES...AND WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD FAVOR EFFICIENT
RAIN PROCESSES...AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL CONSIDERING
HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND
BULK EFFECTIVE SHEER IS GENERALLY AROUND 20-25KT. EARLY MONDAY
EVENING DCAPE APPROACHING 1500 J/KG AND HIGHER TD DEPRESSIONS
WITHIN MIXED LAYER MAY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVE/WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS QUICKLY
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EACH OF THESE FEATURES COULD
BRING WITH IT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FALLING HEIGHTS/QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT WITHIN VICINITY OF OUR CWA COULD FAVOR HIGHS
TREND MORE TOWARDS THE MID 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND RATHER THAN
SEASONAL UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...THIS DEPENDS ON TIMING OF THESE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN POPS CONTINUES TO BE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS
SHOW BETTER OVERLAP/CONSISTENCY. IT IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT TO BE
SKEPTICAL ON TIMING AS THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
EVOLUTION/ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO I LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE DURATION OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

AN AREA OF SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE AND A SMALL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HAS PRODUCED SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN RED WILLOW
COUNTY AROUND THE TERMINAL...WITH THE STRONGEST PART OF THE STORM
REMAINING TO THE WEST...BUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORT.  PART
OF THE STORM APPEARS TO BE WITHIN 5 MILES...THUS PUT -TSRA MENTION
FOR THE NEXT HOUR AND VCTS UNTIL 2Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MK


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