Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 271717

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
Issued by National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1117 AM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 351 AM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Main forecast concern will be next storm system to affect the
area with secondary concern for fog this morning. Satellite
showing a somewhat amplified but still progressive wave train from
the Pacific into North America. Next upper trough is now moving
onto the coast.

The Ecmwf looks to be doing a little better with the jet associated
with the incoming upper trough. At mid levels the models started out
about the same. However they started out with the same problem. They
did not the incoming trough sharp/deep enough and were too far east
with the lower heights. Overall Ecmwf, Nam, and Canadian were doing
the best.

For Today/tonight...Again first issue to address is the fog.
Downslope winds associated with surface trough have been a little
stronger than previously expected. This has helped to dry out the
low levels. As a result the coverage of fog is less. The Hrrr and
Rap have a good handle on the this. So confined the fog to the
far eastern portion of the area. Made only a slight adjustment to
cooler for the high temperatures.

Next upper system starts moving into the area late tonight. This is
a little slower. Also the mean flow is almost straight from the
south. Considering this recent trend and collaboration with
neighbors, have slowed down the arrival of the higher pops until
later tonight.

For Tuesday/Tuesday night...upper jet continues to affect the
northwest half of the area during the morning then pivots to over
the western half as the upper low approaches. Jet affects the area
along and east of the Colorado border through the night.

Pretty much previous thinking holds for here. Have no problem with
the very high pops and moderate nature of the rain with embedded
thunderstorms. So kept what the forecast builder gave and pretty
much continued the previous trends started by the day forecaster.
Model soundings for late tonight are warmer, and am thinking now
that the phase should stay liquid which matches up my neighbors.

For high temperatures, we will be covered with plenty of cloud cover
at multiple levels with ongoing precipitation and upslope winds
through mid levels. So lowered high temperatures a little.

For Wednesday/Wednesday night...Again phase early in the day should
remain liquid. Otherwise, models start diverging in their solutions
of the upper system. Some are faster or slower or further north or
further south. This makes it really hard to make any meaningful
adjustments. As a result for the daytime left the pops alone. Also
made a slight adjustment down on the high temperatures which look
similar to the previous day.

In general for the nighttime hours, models look to end the
precipitation from west to east, especially after midnight. So
adjusted grids to reflect trend for the pops. Also believe most of
the precipitation will be done, mainly in the western portion, for a
complete change over to snow. Do have a rain and snow mixture after
midnight but should not amount to much.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 214 AM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Thursday and Friday: H5 low moves out of the region and off to the
northeast with the remainder of PoPs winding down in the eastern
portions of the CWA by noon. Dry weather will prevail through the
afternoon on Thursday and into Friday as a shortwave ridge builds
into the central Plains, moving from west to east. Another slow
moving closed H5 low will begin influencing our area on Friday with
a rain/snow mix in the eastern Colorado counties before changing
over to all rain. PoPs gradually increase from west to east through
the day and mainly into the evening and overnight hours.

Saturday and Sunday: Low pressure remains nearly stationary over the
Four Corners region (GFS) before very slowly moving southeast. The
ECMWF is a bit more progressive, moving the low into northern Texas
and the Oklahoma Panhandle by late Saturday afternoon. In either
case, we are looking at good moisture return from the east/southeast
as the low does not move very much over the Friday through Sunday
time frame. Widespread rain will likely be the scenario with a brief
change over to a rain/snow mix during the early morning hours on
both Saturday and Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1111 AM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through this evening with mostly clear
skies. A system moving in from the west will increase moisture at
the surface and create MVFR to IFR conditions towards sunrise
tomorrow. Light rain will also be possible towards sunrise. Winds
will generally be from the south this afternoon shifting to more
of a southeasterly direction this evening through the overnight




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