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000
FXUS63 KGRR 191709
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
109 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY AND BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. HEAVY RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE
COOLER WEATHER IN THE 50S RETURNS TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
MOVING ENE. THAT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT AS IT DRAGS A
COLD FRONT EAST WARD. QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS AND THOSE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA SUNDAY. WE/LL
STILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE SUNDAY BUT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE INCREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TO PUSH
TEMPS TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS BOTH THE SFC AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE CWA. THAT SAID...THERE IS SOME WEAKNESS IN THE STABILITY
FIELD NOTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ELEVATED LI/S DON/T FALL
BELOW 0C...THERE IS SOME MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE SRN CWA.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT THUNDER IN THE GRIDS BUT WILL TAKE A
LOOK AT LATER MODEL RUNS.

GIVEN THE INCREASE IN TEMPS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES...THE FIRE DANGER
WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS PLANTS AND TREES HAVE NOT
GREENED UP YET. HOWEVER WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH PAST
15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION TO MONDAY NIGHT.  THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LIFT...THE ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD BE SCATTERED.  HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...SENDING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM STAYS WITH SOUTHWEST LOWER MI RIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THURSDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH AT SOME POINT THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.  WITH MODELS
TRENDING FASTER WITH THE FRONT...LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO I DID BUMP UP POPS THEN.  VERY LITTLE IF ANY
INSTABILITY IS SHOWN IN THE MODELS...SO I WILL KEEP IT AT SHOWERS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BAND OF SHOWERS
MOVING IN WITH THE COLD FRONT GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF DECENT LIFT
AND GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

RIVER FLOODING HAS BY NO MEANS ENDED ACROSS THE MUSKEGON RIVER.
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING CONTINUES...WITH EVART FINALLY FALLING
BELOW MAJOR FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TONIGHT / EARLY SATURDAY. THE
CROTON DAM CONTINUES TO STEADILY RELEASE LESS FLOW DOWNSTREAM...AND
SHOULD FALL BELOW MODERATE FLOOD BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH WATER
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TRAVEL AROUND THE RIVER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND WILL STILL BE AFFECTING MANY PROPERTIES THAT HAVE
ALREADY FLOODED. NO RISES ARE FORESEEN ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AREAL FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGHOUT NEWAYGO COUNTY...WHICH HAS NOT
RECOVERED FROM HIGH WATER IMPACTS TO THE ROAD SYSTEMS. AS
SUCH...THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE COUNTY FOR SOME
WATER COVERED ROADS THAT ARE IMPEDING TRAVEL.

ELSEWHERE...RIVER FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED CONSIDERABLY ON THE PERE
MARQUETTE...WHITE...AND CHIPPEWA RIVERS. THE GRAND RIVER IS
RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL AT THIS TIME BUT NO SERIOUS IMPACTS TO
HOMES OR PROPERTIES ARE OCCURRING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...63
HYDROLOGY...HOVING