Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 270124
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
824 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
830PM UPDATE...
COOL DRY AIR PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING... WITH LIGHT
WINDS LEADING TO A FAIRLY COLD NIGHT. HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR
MODIFICATIONS TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
A FEW LOCAL COLD SPOTS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT LOTS OF HIGH...THIN OVERCAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. DESPITE COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
AREA...THE OVERCAST OR PARTIAL OVERCAST WILL LIMIT COOLING
SOMEWHAT. BEST CHANCE TO CLEAR OUT WILL BE THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS...WHERE SURFACE RIDGING WILL TRY TO NOSE IN FIRST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRANCH INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
WEATHER ON THE QUIET SIDE. CONTINUED CLEARING...COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE. RIDGE
AXIS WILL TRY AND ALIGN OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT...AND COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. AIR MASS IS
MODERATING A LITTLE ALOFT...BUT IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE COLDER
MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE. FAVORED THOSE PIECES OF
GUIDANCE MORE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ON SATURDAY A VERY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

THE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON A TRIPLE POINT OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. AT THIS POINT THIS APPEARS TO BE A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM SO
NO MAJOR SNOW AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES. A MORE
ORGANIZED SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WANT TO TAKE THIS SYSTEM WEST OF THE
AREA ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO TRY TO MOVE OVER THE AREA.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION TYPE CHALLENGES OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. AS THIS IS STILL ALMOST A WEEK AWAY IT WOULD NOT BE TOO
SURPRISING IF MODELS TREND COLDER AS WE GET CLOSER AND THAT WILL
BE SOMETHING THAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TO PREVAIL THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING BREEZE WILL KEEP
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN THE FORECAST THRU THE OVERNIGHT.
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED. FOR SEAS...NOTED THE SWAN MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS RUNNING TOO HIGH TODAY. OPTED FOR THE WNA4 AND ITS
COARSER RESOLUTION AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS AND WAVES TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS...ALTHOUGH WINDS COULD ROACH SCA LEVELS
LATE MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...LULOFS
AVIATION...LEGRO/LULOFS
MARINE...LEGRO/LULOFS



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