Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 280819
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
319 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY... BRINGING
COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS UPSTATE NY EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR
REGION WILL AFFECT ME AND NH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND TO OUR SOUTH AROUND MIDDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT ALL LOCATIONS OF THE CWA HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK AND THEREFORE NO FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING. SUNSHINE RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...WITH
HIGHS APPROACHING 50 AT MANY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH OCCASIONALLY BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONES LATE TONIGHT
AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS
IS EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AS THE SECONDARY
FRONT MOVES ON THROUGH. SOME LAKES MOISTURE MAY GET ENTRAINED INTO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND A
PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE UNITED STATES. WHILE THE CENTER OF THIS
HIGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS STATES... ITS INFLUENCE WILL
BE FELT ALL THE WAY TO THE EAST COAST. FOR OUR AREA THIS MEANS A
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPING A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING FOR
SEVERAL DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH
SLIDING EASTWARD THROUGH QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS WILL DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN
AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OUT OF
THIS AS THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND THE TROUGH LACKS A MOISTURE
CONNECTION UNTIL IT MOVES WELL EAST OF OUR AREA.

ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT DOES MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT. COASTAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS MAY RISE TO NEAR FREEZING AGAIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL ATOP A FLAT-TOPPED EAST
COAST RIDGE.

NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY AND MOVING QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD... IMPACTING OUR REGION BY SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW
SEEMS LIKELY TO TRACK WEST OF NEW ENGLAND... RESULTING IN A WARM
SCENARIO FOR OUR AREA. PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN INITIALLY AS SNOW
ON SATURDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN WITH WARMER AIR SURGING
NORTHWARD. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE TRACK OF THIS LOW AS SOMETIMES
THESE SYSTEMS CAN DEVELOP A SECOND OFFSHORE LOW WHICH ACTS TO HOLD
THE COLD AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN MORE OF A COLD AIR
DAMMING SCENARIO. BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF
A WARM SOLUTION WITH SNOW TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING VFR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SFC WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRINGS A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION AND CAA REGIME DEVELOPS IN IT/S WAKE.

LONG TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND
COULD STRENGTHEN TO HIGH END ADVISORY OR LOW END GALE CONDITIONS.
THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE SEAS PRIMARILY IN THE EASTERN WATERS
WHERE THE FETCH IS LONGER.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...KIMBLE


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