Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 011909
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
309 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA
OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OVER THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP A WEAK
OVER-RUNNING PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. 1ST INSTALLMENT OF ASSOCIATED PRECIP ON THE WAY THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOOON. EXPECT STEADIER PRECIP TO TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MOUNTAINS MAY HANG
ON TO SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN THE VICINTY OF A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
30S IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 40 IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT
RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING. HIGH
TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS MAY BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL MAINE
TOWARD DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY AS DIPICTED IN THE NEW GFS BUT ECMWF
KEEPS THIS PRECIP SOUTH OF THE REGION SO JUST GOING WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHERN AND
COASTAL ZONES. FARTHER NORTH...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WHICH
WILL LEAVE A FRONT STATIONARY TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS FORM A SERIES
OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ON THIS FRONT AND MOVE THEM IS SUCCESSION
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE IS THE ONLY MODEL TO
MOVE PRECIPITATION UP INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE ON TUESDAY WITH OVER A HALF INCH OF RAIN TUESDAY. USED A
BLEND OF MODELS TO TONE THIS DOWN TO LESS THAN 30 PERCENT CHANCE.

ON THURSDAY A DIGGING TROUGH REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW WITH MANY SURFACE
LOWS. IT IS QUITE IMPOSSIBLE TO TELL WHERE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP AND THE OVERALL TRACK AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS ARE
ALL SIMILAR BUT DIFFER IN THE DETAILS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY. BECOMING VFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS IN SOUTHERN ZONES.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MVFR IN SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY TUESDAY THEN
IMPROVEMENT. EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. EXPECT MVFR/IFR OFF AND ON THROUGH FRIDAY IN
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...
HOWEVER A PERSISTENT EASTERLY TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE
SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOME MUCH NEEDED WETTING RAINS EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. NO FIRE ISSUES ANTICIPATED.


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



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