Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 280909
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
409 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A GRADUAL INCREASE OF LLVL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS ONSHORE WINDS RESUME. IT SHOULD BE A SLOW GRADUAL
MODIFICATION AND WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING POPS IN THE FCST UNTIL
SUNDAY - WITH JUST ISO/SCT SEABREEZE ACTIVITY THEN.

PW`S CONTINUE AN UPWARD CLIMB INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE CNTL GULF IS STILL FCST TO
RETROGRADE AND POSITION ITSELF CLOSER TO...OR IN TX...DEPENDING
ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. 0-6Z MODELS
HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS REGARDING EVOLUTION, POSITIONING, STRENGTH,
TIMING, ETC FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAKES FOR A
LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST. (WILL WE END UP ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF
AXIS OR RIGHT UNDER A CUTOFF LOW?). AS SUCH...DIDN`T CHANGE MUCH
OF THE ONGOING FCST WHICH ADVERTISES SCT DAILY PRECIP. HOPEFULLY
WE`LL SEE A BETTER CONSENSUS IN THE COMING DAYS & CAN TWEAK NEXT
WEEKS POPS ACCORDINGLY. 47

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THRU MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING FCST. INCREASING MOISTURE LATE SAT
INTO SUN COMBINED WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A
A CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE MARINE AREAS STARTING SUN. WITH THIS FEAT-
URE THEN LINGERING OVER THE REGION...WE SHOULD SEE RAIN CHANCES STAY
IN THE FCST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE 12Z TAFS...WITH A WIND SHIFT (FROM
THE SEABREEZE) BEING THE LONE ISSUE DURING THE AFTN HOURS. THIS DRY
AIRMASS IS SHOULD LINGER INTO SAT AFTN AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NOT PROGGED TO RETURN UNTIL SAT
NIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING FROM THE GULF SO LOWER CIGS/VIS SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL THEN. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      96  72  95  72  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              94  72  94  71  93 /   0   0   0   0  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            90  78  90  79  89 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$



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