Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 270019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
719 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

A nearly solid line of thunderstorms extends between Cleveland
and Brenham and is slowly drifting to the south toward the KIAH
airspace. I inserted a TEMPO for 3SM TSRA for th enext two hours with
hopes that the main thunderstorms will remain to the north of the
terminal. However, given the poor performance of our available
model guidance, I would not be surprised to see 1/2SM +TSRA within
the next two hours as the line continues to slowly drift to the

A strong southeast flow continues to pump additional moisture in
to the thunderstorm complex while a train of upper level
disturbances and a split flow in the jetstream contribute to
generate sustained lift. It is likely that this system will
continue for the next few hours. We will likelyu get a break during
the early morning hours, however we expect a similar precipitation
scenario on Friday.

Terminals outside of the thunderstorm complex should remain MVFR
overnight. Those affected by the complex will rapidly experience
IFR/LIFR CIG and VIS conditions.                 Keehn



Large MCS that developed over the northern parts of the CWA earl-
ier this afternoon will be continuing to move E/SE into the even-
ing hrs. Reports of tornadic damage have been largely confined to
Bryan/College Station area but reports of flooding have been more
widespread over Washington, Burleson, Brazos, Grimes, and Madison
counties. Given the current trends, not expecting things to quiet
down until late this evening. Of concern is the track of this MCS
toward Harris county during the next few hrs. Also seeing another
shortwave (per WV imagery) moving in from the W/SW...with an ext-
rapolated timing for this evening. A break from all the action is
progged for the overnight hours.


Models are hitting SE TX with more unsettled wx for tomorrow with
another disturbance moving in from the SW. Upper jet dynamics and
low-level jet structure are progged to be a bit more favorable as
the very moist airmass remains in place. The main uncertainty may
be how unstable/worked over we will be (in the wake of the storms
today). But given how wet the pattern has been have opted to keep
POPS high for tomorrow.

The forecast for this upcoming holiday weekend looks to remain an
active one (though not as active as today/possibly tomorrow). The
seabreeze should be the main focus with daytime heating. Possible
embedded shortwaves within the persistent SW flow aloft could add
more lift (storms) to this scenario. Did lean more heavily on the
ECMWF in the extended. 41

The tight pressure gradient between a deep low over the OK/TX
Panhandles and a high over the southeastern U.S. will maintain a
strong southeasterly flow through Friday. Winds will likely
strengthen to SCA levels early this evening.  seas are running 4 to 6
feet and should increase to 5 to 8 feet on Friday

A persistent fetch from the Western Carribean combined with the
strong on shore flow will raise tide levels to near 3.5 feet above
MLLW on Friday morning. A coastal flood advisory will likely be
necessary on Friday morning`s high tide along the Bolivar Peninsula.

Memorial Day weekend weather will be less active...a 10-15 knot
southeast wind over gradually lowering seas...3 to 4 foot wave
heights by late Saturday night through Sunday PM. Memorial Day will
be tranquil...very low rain chances and a near 10 knot onshore wind
over average 2 to 3 foot wave heights.             44


College Station (CLL)      73  83  71  88  72 /  70  80  50  40  10
Houston (IAH)              75  85  74  88  73 /  60  70  40  30  10
Galveston (GLS)            78  83  77  83  78 /  40  50  20  20  10


TX...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Fort Bend...Grimes...
     San Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters
     from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60
     NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.



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