Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 011452
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
952 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Previous forecast appears to be on track. Brought in the obs and
blended through the afternoon. Cirrus clouds should stick around
through the day today with no precip expected. Highs in the low
to mid 80s this afternoon.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
VFR with some cirrus. A seabreeze is most likely at KGLS today.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
At 300 AM, surface high pressure extended from southern OK into SE
TX. A very weak pressure gradient was in place and a large swath
of cirrus clouds continues to stream into the region from the
W-NW. At 850 mb, a well developed low pressure system was centered
over Kentucky and a dry north flow on the back side of this
feature is still influencing SE TX. A weak trough was also noted
in the lee of the Rockies. 850 MB moisture is sparse with 850 dew
points around 5 C. At 300 MB, a deep upper low was centered over
Kentucky with a large upper level high over north central Mexico.
00z soundings showed PW values below 0.75 inches at both LCH and
CRP. Fcst soundings for today show very little in the way of low
level moisture but some saturation aloft. Cirrus clouds will
likely hang around for much of the day with some clearing toward
evening. PW values remain meager on Sunday with values increasing
to around an inch. Fcst soundings show little in the way of
saturation in the morning with some increase in saturation toward
mid afternoon especially near the coast. A weak disturbance over
the Gulf and very weak surface convergence should allow for a few
showers to develop over the coastal waters Sunday and showers will
likely continue over the Gulf through Monday.

The disturbance over the Gulf will push SW and weaken on Tuesday
so would expect rain chances over the Gulf to dwindle. Surface
high pressure will move east on Monday afternoon and east winds
will become SE on Tuesday. Surface dew points will begin to climb
as will humidity levels. Overnight lows will be back into the
upper 60s by Monday morning and probably lower 70s by Tuesday.
Building heights and warming at 850 MB should bring warmer
temperatures to the region mid week. Temperatures will be
averaging 5-7 degrees above normal by Thursday.

Still some timing differences with Thursday`s cold front but the
GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement with a weak surface low
developing over W TX on Wednesday evening. As the low departs on
Thursday it will drag a cold front across the state. The ECMWF is
a bit faster than the GFS and it brings the front through Thursday
evening while the GFS brings the front through early Friday.
PW values look meager peaking near 1.60 inches on Thursday
afternoon. Fcst soundings show a weak cap near 850 and the
sounding profile looks very dry. Will carry 20/30 PoPs and that is
generous. Moisture profile actually looks better on Wednesday and
model mass fields hinting at some showers. Vorticity advection on
Wednesday looks neutral to weak and there is no surface trigger
but upper level winds do hint at some divergence so maybe that`ll
be enough to get some showers to develop. Will also carry 20/30
PoPs on Wednesday. Cooler and drier weather expected next weekend
in the wake of the front. 43

MARINE...
Moderate winds are possible by Sunday as an upper level shortwave
trough moves overhead and helps to generate a coastal trough. The
time frame is fairly short, likely Sunday afternoon and night.
Otherwise, winds and seas will remain below caution criteria through
mid week.

40

CLIMATE...
September is complete and it was a warm month. Temperatures
averaged 2.5 to 3.5 degrees warmer than normal. They city of
Houston had an average temperature of 82.7 degrees and this is the
4th warmest September in city history. Houston Hobby recorded it`s
second warmest September on record with an average temperature of
83.4 degrees. Galveston recorded it`s 3rd warmest September with
an average temperature of 84.0 degrees. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      83  61  85  64  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              84  64  86  68  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            83  73  82  74  85 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...11



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