Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 230538
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1138 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR. Regional high pressure will maintain mainly clear skies and
a light north breeze through Thanksgiving. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The area is on track for a cool night as surface high pressure builds
into the area from the north and northwest. Temperatures should range
from the lower to mid 30s well inland to the mid to upper 40s at the
coast.

The forecast looks right on track, and not a whole lot of changes are
being made on the evening update.  42

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR. Weakening northerlies under mainly clear skies through the
period. 31

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Few cirrus clouds streaming in from the north in the wake of the
cold front that passed through early this morning. High pressure
will continue to build in from the NW through Thursday which will
keep offshore flow through the rest of the workweek. Expect a chilly
start to Thanksgiving with lows tonight getting down to the upper
30s to low 40s, roughly 10 degrees below climatology. High
temperatures on Thanksgiving will stay in the mid-60s with prolonged
cold air advection behind the front. With our prolonged dry spell as
of late, dry grass on the ground combined with RH values near 30
will result in enhanced fire risk for those deep frying turkeys
outside, so be sure to exercise caution in those cases.

Onshore flow will slowly return late Friday into Saturday as the
surface ridge moves offshore into the Gulf, bringing high
temperatures back into the 70s, even up to the high 70s on Saturday,
and dew points into the 50s. A weak cold front will approach the
region on Saturday night/Sunday morning, but will not provide much
relief as dew points stay in the 50s and high temperatures in the
70s through the weekend. However, the northerly flow behind the
front will continue to close us off from Gulf moisture, resulting in
a dry frontal passage as high pressure once again builds in from the
northwest.

As the high pressure progresses into the Gulf on Monday, onshore
flow will result in moisture return Tuesday. This happens just as an
additional cold front looks to approach the region midweek. Still
some uncertainty with the frontal passage, as the GFS shows a strong
cold front passing through with rain Tuesday night through
Wednesday, while the ECMWF does not show much of a front until
Thursday. 22

MARINE...
Winds over the Gulf waters are continuing to decrease this afternoon
and seas should be following suit this evening. The Small Craft
Advisory in effect for the offshore waters will be allowed to
expire at 00Z/6PM, but a brief SCEC may be needed for seas into
the early part of this evening. Otherwise, high pressure building
across the region will allow for generally light/moderate offshore
winds tomorrow into tomorrow night. Light onshore winds progged
to develop Friday as the high moves east/low pressure develops
over North TX. Another frontal boundary to move into the coastal
waters Saturday night as moderate/ light N/NE winds develop in its
wake. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      37  64  42  71  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              40  65  43  70  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            49  63  51  66  60 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM CST Thursday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 8 AM CST Thursday for
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
     Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...42
Aviation/Marine...31



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