Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 131804
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
104 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STILL LIKELY AFTER 21Z...HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. LEFT VCTS IN THE IAH TAF AFTER
21Z AND CXO AFTER 22Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MIGRATE THAT FAR INLAND. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAD BEEN FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY REMAINS OVER THE GULF TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SABINE RIVER. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS CONTINUED TO LIMIT
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THIS LOW. I MAY REMOVE THE VCTS FROM
IAH AND CXO TAFS AFTER 20Z IF THERE IS NOT BETTER DEVELOPMENT
OVER LAND.

MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT RURAL TERMINALS DURING PRE-DAWN HOURS ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. LEFT
MENTION OF VCSH/VCTS OUT OF MONDAY TAFS BECAUSE COVERAGE SHOULD BE
VERY SPARSE. 44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATES TO THE POPS AND WEATHER FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

40

DISCUSSION...
A 200 MB UPPER LOW WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
LA COAST AT MID MORNING. MORNING AREA SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE BEST
CAPE AND PW/S NEAR THE COAST AND EASTERN AREAS...CRP AND LCH BOTH
HAD PW/S 1.7 TO 1.8 WHILE FWD HAD 1.2 INCHES. CAPE VALUES WERE
ALSO BETTER OVER THE COASTAL AND EASTERN AREAS...CRP AND LCH
RANGED FROM 2600 TO 2900. FORECAST NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS WERE MORE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE THAN THE GFS. FELT THAT THE 12Z NAM WAS
VERIFYING BETTER THAN THE 06Z GFS...ALTHOUGH THE LOCATION OF THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE TIED INTO THE
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH THIS IN MIND...TWEAKED THE POPS
AND WEATHER DOWNWARD OVER THE INLAND AREAS THROUGH 1 PM. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...FELT THAT ISOLATED
POPS WERE BEST OVER ALL INLAND LOCATIONS BUT DID KEEP 30 PERCENT
POPS IN OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND LOCATIONS FROM
HOUSTON TO LIBERTY SOUTHWARD. MAY TWEAK THESE DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE TRENDS.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  98  75  95  74 /  10  10  20  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  97  76  94  75 /  10  20  20  40  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  90  80  90  81 /  10  20  20  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...44


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