Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 161705
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1205 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO FORM AND CONCENTRATE
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS TO BE ALONG A BOUNDARY AT
850 MB. CURRENTS PWATS FROM GPS MET ARE AROUND 2.20" WITH K INDEX
VALUES IN THE MID 30S. LIFT TODAY WILL COME FROM DAY TIME HEATING
AND A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO MEXICO. HIGH RES MODELS
ARE SHOWING PRECIP CONTINUING TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE INLAND AND
EVENTUALLY FILLING IN TODAY. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY FILL AROUND
INTERSTATE 10 NORTH TO ABOUT KUTS. HIGH RES MODELS THEN QUICKLY
DISSIPATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP TOMORROW AS HIGH MOISTURE VALUES
REMAIN IN PLACE. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WITH AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NOW WELL ABOVE TWO INCHES AND
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND THAT LEVEL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
ANTICIPATE DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ACTIVITY
GENERALLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS AND THEN INLAND DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A
QUICK 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY COMMON...AND
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THESE COULD EASILY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WHERE TRAINING SETS UP...DAILY TOTALS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES WOULD NOT
BE UNEXPECTED.

ONLY CHANGE TO THE GRIDS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO LOWER TODAY`S
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED
CLOUD AND RAINFALL COVERAGE.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED PATTERN FOR SE TX THESE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT FEATURES COMBINE/INTERACT AND GIVE US A
RATHER WET FCST. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST-
ERLY WAVE MOVING INTO SE TX THIS MORNING (AS EVIDENT BY THE PCPN
DEVELOPING/TRACKING INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS). THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE (2-2.3" PWS) FCST TO LINGER OVER THE REGION THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS THE GULF REMAINS WIDE OPEN. OVER THE NRN COUNTIES WE
ARE STILL SEEING RADAR ECHOES (LIGHT PCPN) STREAMING ACROSS FROM
THE W/NW...PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE (WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCA-
TED OVER THE MID CALI BAJA). THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL EVENTUAL-
LY GET CAUGHT UP INTO THE MAIN UPPER FLOW AND BEGIN MOVING ENEWD
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL HELP TO PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRAS TODAY AND TOMORROW. ELEVATED POPS COULD STAY
IN PLACE THROUGH THUR GIVEN THE PROGGED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE VAR-
IOUS SYSTEMS. LOOKING AHEAD...EXTENDED MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE ARRIVAL OF
A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS LATE SUN/EARLY MON SHOULD BRING AN END TO
THE RAINS. 41

MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING ON THE SW FLANK OF THE MID LEVEL
RIDGING WITH WEAK TROUGHING OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING THEN AS TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE SHEARS OUT EXPECT THE AXIS OF CONVERGENCE TO SHIFT
WEST AND NORTH WITH COVERAGE DECREASING IN THE EVENING. LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE BAYS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND
INCREASE A LITTLE TODAY. ONSHORE FLOW REMAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. GFS AND ECMWF
GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY LATE OR EARLY TUESDAY...MAY REACH SCEC IN
THE WAKE AS FRONT MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. 45

AVIATION...
EXPECT THAT TODAY THE TERMINALS WILL BE PLAGUED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN FROM THE COAST THIS
MORNING AND THEN DEVELOPING INLAND AND MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  91  74  90  72 /  30  50  30  40  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  92  74  91  74 /  30  60  30  50  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  89  79  88  78 /  40  60  40  50  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...23



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