Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 042200
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
300 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
HIGH COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION FIRING UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF THE
DISTRICT. WHILE A FEW CELLS HAVE MOVED ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA
CREST...BEST CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE OWENS VALLEY AND GREAT
BASIN. YET...MODEL AND OBSERVED INSTABILITY ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE WEST OF THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER HOT DAY AS MANY
VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY REACHING THE CENTURY MARK.

AT THIS POINT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IS
SHOWING MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT IS THE FLOW AS THE SOUTHERLY
SURGE IS NOW LEANING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. MODEL CONVECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS LESS INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY...WITH EVEN MORE STABLE AIR ON
MONDAY. THIS MORE STABLE AIR WILL ALSO MEAN THAT COOLER AIR AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. WHILE MONDAY WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES
...THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS MAX VALUES
START DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL VALUES. YET...WHILE CONVECTION WILL
BE MINIMAL...PRECIP WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST NEAR
YOSEMITE AS POCKETS OF INSTABILITY WILL EXIST THROUGH OUT THE
WEEK.

THE STABLE AIR WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING
ONSHORE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE
CALIFORNIA COAST LINE...A SURGE OF MARINE AIR WILL FORCE ITS WAY
INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY...PRODUCING A STRONG GRADIENT ALONG THE
COASTAL RANGE. THEREFORE...STRONG WINDS MAY BE OBSERVED ALONG THE
INTERSTATE-5 CORRIDOR STARTING AROUND THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME
FRAME.

BY EARLY FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW REACHING LAND AROUND
THE CENTER OF THE STATE. AT THAT POINT...UNCERTAINTY EXIST AS TO
THE ACTUAL TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARD MOVING THE
LOW OVER THE BAY AREA NEXT FRIDAY. THIS TRAJECTORY WILL KEEP THE
BEST CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH YOSEMITE SEEING THE
TAIL END. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP PRECIP COVERAGE AT A MINIMUM
AND MOSTLY AROUND YOSEMITE. WILL MONITOR THE EVOLVING PATTERN TO
SEE OF CONFIDENCE WILL GROW ON THIS POSSIBLE SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILING POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH 04Z SUNDAY AND REDEVELOPING AFTER
18Z SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SUNDAY JULY 5 2015...UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KERN
AND TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST. FURTHER
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-04      112:1889     79:1955     81:2001     51:1951
KFAT 07-05      112:1991     77:1909     77:1991     52:1948
KFAT 07-06      111:2007     83:1903     78:2007     50:1955

KBFL 07-04      114:1931     82:1955     81:2001     49:1913
KBFL 07-05      114:1931     80:1961     81:1970     53:1948
KBFL 07-06      116:1913     85:1955     81:2011     52:1915
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...BSO/MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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