Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 192145
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
245 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST
OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH. THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE
COAST ON SATURDAY THEN ACCELERATING OVER NEVADA BY SUNDAY. THERE
IS ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY. ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
BUT THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE FRAZIER PARK AREA FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NAM12 SHOWS MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. IT IS POSSIBLE THERE COULD
BE SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COOL POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD. SHORT WAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN BY LATE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY EDGE UPWARD
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WEST
COAST BY THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF BRINGS THE TROUGH MORE ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BRINGING
IT INLAND ON FRIDAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY NEAR YOSEMITE AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WILL LIKELY BE JUST A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA CREST THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. ALSO EXPECT A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-19      105:1922     70:1989     75:1984     44:1978
KFAT 09-20      104:1939     73:2007     73:1939     46:1978
KFAT 09-21      102:1949     72:1945     74:1983     42:1968

KBFL 09-19      104:1939     69:1989     73:2009     39:1908
KBFL 09-20      104:1899     73:2007     70:1974     38:1908
KBFL 09-21      105:2003     74:1945     73:1983     37:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FW...BEAN
AVN...BSO
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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