Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 232014
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
114 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER STORM WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO
WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND
EVERYONE IS EXPERIENCING A SUNNY DAY THANKS TO A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN THE SIERRA ARE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY WILL THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE VALLEY IS STILL SEEING SOME COOLING. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE EXITS EAST OUTSIDE OF
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH ARRIVES. OVERALL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
WELL LOCKED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION SO WE HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE THURSDAY
EVENING AS MASS FIELDS RESPOND TO THE INCOMING LOW...PRIMARILY
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KERN COUNTY. HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE 100KT JET
STREAK AND TROUGH AXIS CROSS OUR CWA. TYPICAL WIND-PRONE AREAS
WILL LIKELY SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SOME BLOWING DUST WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A WINDOW FRIDAY EVENING WHERE
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE BOOSTED A HEALTHY AMOUNT IN THE SIERRA
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS NOT
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM /MID-LEVEL MIXING RATIOS
REMAIN AROUND 3-4 G/KG/ THE STRONG ASCENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL GET SHOWERS GOING. WE SHOULD SEE A HALF TO
ONE INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THOSE AREAS ONCE THE STORM IS
THROUGH...THE VALLEY THOUGH WILL SEE AT BEST A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH AND LITTLE TO NONE FOR EASTERN KERN COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BEGIN AROUND 7-8KFT EARLY FRIDAY...DROP TO NEAR 5KFT FRIDAY
EVENING...THEN DOWN TO 4KFT SATURDAY MORNING WITH RESIDUAL
SHOWERS. BY SATURDAY MORNING WE/RE CURRENTLY EXPECTING 2-6 INCHES
OF SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET AND UP TO TWO INCHES BETWEEN 4000-6000.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LOW...HIGHEST MUCAPE FROM SREF MEMBERS
IS AROUND 200 J/KG IN THE VALLEY WITH THE MAJORITY FAR LESS AND
LFC IS AROUND THE -25C LEVEL. HOWEVER GIVEN THE STRONG FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS...BROAD-LEVEL ASCENT MAY BOOST A FEW
SHOWERS TO THUNDERSTORM STATUS SO WILL MAINTAIN IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH THIS SYSTEM...HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A ROBUST
WARM-UP IS ON THE WAY THOUGH AS A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS IN AND HIGHS
TUESDAY REACH 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-23      100:1910     56:1961     62:2012     39:1958
KFAT 04-24      101:1910     60:1899     63:1910     36:1958
KFAT 04-25      101:1898     55:1952     64:1898     36:1964

KBFL 04-23      100:1910     59:1960     62:2012     33:1904
KBFL 04-24      100:1910     64:1994     62:1981     34:1904
KBFL 04-25       97:1946     60:1951     65:1910     32:1893
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...INIGUEZ
AVN/FW...INIGUEZ
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD







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