Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 232140
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
240 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK RIDGING WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH BRINGING A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER TODAY WITH THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SECONDARY LOW EXPECTED TO AFFECT CALIFORNIA AS SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
LOW IS NOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH THE SECONDARY LOW
DROPPING DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM EUREKA. TIMING OF THE
SECONDARY LOW/S INFLUENCE WILL BEGIN CLOSER TO 500 PM PDT AND
SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DURING THE EVENING. CURRENTLY...
SHORT RANGE MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS THE BEST CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTH.
WHILE CAPE AND LI VALUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE...THEY DO SHOW A GROWING TREND WHICH PEAKS OUT AT
AROUND 5 PM PDT. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN
ADDITION...A STRONG JET MAX MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
SECONDARY LOW HAS SUPPORTED STRONG WINDS OVER THE TEHACHAPI RANGE
AND MOJAVE DESERT. AS THE LOW DROPS AND THE JET MAX SHIFTS SOUTH
THE SOUTHEAST...WIND SUPPORT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS WIND
SPEED DROP TONIGHT. COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY WILL END AS WARMING
TEMP/S WILL BE SEEN THROUGH MID-WEEK.

SUNDAY WILL SEE A COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE THE
REGION AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. RIDING OVER THE RIDGE WILL BE ANOTHER LOW THAT
WILL MOVE DOWN FROM WESTERN CANADA. WHILE THIS NEXT LOW WILL HAVE
PROVIDE MINIMAL PERCIP POTENTIAL OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...TEMP/S
WILL BE INFLUENCED AS CYCLONIC/SEMI-ZONAL FLOW WILL RESIDE OVER
CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY. YET...THE EASTERN-PAC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD...ALLOWING FOR A SLOW WARM-UP. THEREFORE...THE WARM
TREND OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LEVEL OFF AND REMAIN STEADY FOR A
DAY.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE ONSHORE BY WEDNESDAY.
THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL THEN ALLOW TEMP/S TO RESUME ON A
WARMING TREND. MODELS SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POSSIBLE
SOLUTION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE MODELS AND GFS MOD
TREND ANALYSIS IS SHOWING HIGHER CONFIDENCE LEVELS WITH DEVELOPING
A RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SATURDAY
BEING A TRANSITION PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY IS LOW AS MODELS AGREE WITH
THE FORMATION OF A RIDGE PATTERN THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN BY SATURDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...FRIDAY WILL SEE THE END OF
THE WARMING TREND IN TEMP/S AS A COOL DOWN STARTS ON SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT...WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT WILL TREND TOWARD THAT POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURING IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA
IN SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE UNTIL 03Z SUNDAY
AND AGAIN AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-23      103:1967     65:1916     71:2000     44:1960
KFAT 05-24      103:1943     64:1916     68:2001     41:1953
KFAT 05-25      102:1890     59:1906     68:2014     42:1980

KBFL 05-23      107:1904     67:2010     73:2000     44:1903
KBFL 05-24      107:1982     68:1980     76:1982     41:1916
KBFL 05-25      106:1982     58:2008     77:1982     39:1893
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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