Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 010724
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
324 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL WAVE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS
WEEKEND...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...A FRONT...WHICH MOVED INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING...WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ILL- DEFINED AS IT BECOMES INTERTWINED WITH THE DAILY SUMMERTIME
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE.

ALOFT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONTINENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBTLE HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW NEAR THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING AND THEN SLIDE
OFF THE COAST SUN MORNING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS MODEL FORECASTS OF MOISTURE DEPTH AND
MAGNITUDE. OVERALL...THE COLUMN WILL DRY THROUGH TIME INLAND WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DROP FROM NEAR 2 INCHES
THIS MORNING TO AN INCH AND A HALF OVERNIGHT. THE MORE COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND...BUT THE TIMING WILL LAG WITH
SIGNIFICANT DRYING NOT EXPECTED TIL SUN MORNING.

GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND WITH A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION EXPECTED INLAND AS COMPARED TO THE
COAST...WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS...BUT HOLD THE COVERAGE AT SCATTERED FOR
NOW. AS YOU MOVE PROGRESSIVELY INLAND...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LESSEN AND WILL CARRY SMALL CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND W OF A EYF TO FLO LINE. W OF
INTERSTATE 95...THE DRY AIR AND CAP MAY BE JUST A LITTLE TOO HOSTILE
AN ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE STILL TO SLIDE THOUGH THE MORE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS AND THE FACT THAT THE LAND BREEZE/WEAK
FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SEAWARD OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SMALL NIGHTTIME
POPS ALONG THE COAST WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRI...MAINLY LOWER TO MID
90S WITH SOME UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
SEASONABLE...LOWER TO MID 70S AND A FEW SPOTS WELL INLAND MAY DROP
JUST BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK BY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
DEVELOPING SURFACE INVERSION MAY LEAD TO SOME LATE NIGHT FOG INLAND
AND WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STUBBORN STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST LOW-CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SE OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY...BUT MONDAY IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY DRY. THIS FRONT IS
STALLED BENEATH A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS ENVELOPED MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...BUT IS PRETTY FLAT LOCALLY AND THUS
IS UNABLE TO ADVECT IT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THE RIDGE
ACROSS TEXAS BEGINS TO BULGE NE AND IT IS THIS DEVELOPMENT WHICH
WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO FINALLY DISSIPATE.

NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SUNDAY...AND THE INHERITED SCHC
ALONG THE COAST ONLY WILL REMAIN WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. TOWARDS I-95...A VERY SHARP PWAT GRADIENT WILL
EXIST WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THAT AREA...AND THUS NO POP IS
FORECAST. ANY CONVECTION WILL WANE DIURNALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS NO
SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT ON
MONDAY...GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ONLY REASON FOR THIS MUST BE A VORT MAX
PROGGED TO SWING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN...BUT WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE STILL BELIEVE THIS IS
OVERDONE. WILL DROP POP TO SCHC FROM THE INHERITED LOW-CHC FOR
MONDAY...WITH AGAIN THE COASTAL THIRD OF THE CWA MOST FAVORED.

TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NORMS FOR
HIGHS...AROUND 90 AT THE COAST AND AS WARM AS 95 WELL INLAND. LOWS
WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL 72-76 BOTH NIGHTS...WARMEST AT THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL TRANSITION
TO FLAT RIDGING FROM THE ARKLATEX THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS CREATES
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TUE/WED...ALTHOUGH THE GFS LOOKS TOO WARM
WITH ITS EXTREME HEAT AND WILL FAVOR THE COOLER MOS NUMBERS. THE
VERY DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGING WILL
PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
THOUGH. THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS TROUGHING BEGINS TO RE-
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST...LED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE
OH VLY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND
INTO OUR AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING SLOWLY
COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THU/FRI...WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST OFF THE NC/SC COAST AND
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING BACK TO
THE WEST AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FOG WILL BE THE CONCERN ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR AT
TIMES IN VSBY DUE TO CONVECTION...MAINLY AFTER 13Z NEAR THE COAST
AND 17Z INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE
DAILY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE. FOR THE
WATERS...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE SW...ALTHOUGH THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...THE LAND BREEZE SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO
BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS IT PUSHES OUT ACROSS THE VERY WARM WATERS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 10 TO 15 KT...STRONGEST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVE HOURS. SEAS WILL BE A FUNCTION OF A
9 TO 11 SECOND SE SWELL AND WIND ENERGY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY
3 TO 4 FT...ALTHOUGH SOME 5 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE OVER
THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS LATE DAY AND THIS EVE BEFORE SUBSIDING TO
3 TO 4 FT THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE
DISSIPATING JUST INLAND FROM THE WATERS THIS PERIOD. THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN WEAK IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY SUNDAY...SO
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH WINDS SUNDAY
MORNING...DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SE LATE SUNDAY BUT ONLY
AT AROUND 10 KTS. AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ON
MONDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...AND SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SUNDAY...A LONG PERIOD (11 SEC) SE SWELL WILL
EXIST IN THE SPECTRUM WITH A 2-3 FT AMPLITUDE...LIKELY FROM THE
LONG FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH. THIS WILL ALLOW WAVE
HEIGHTS TO BE 3-4 FT SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...THIS SWELL WILL COMBINE
WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT WIND WAVE TO DRIVE SEAS TO 4-5 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS.
THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE SO THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN...AND WINDS WILL BE SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH
LITTLE FLUCTUATION BOTH DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A 5-6 SEC WIND
WAVE...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2 FT SE SWELL TO CREATE 3-4 FT
SEAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS
1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY
PROBABILITY. THE BEACHES WILL APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME
THIS LUNAR CYCLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EDT THROUGH 8 PM
     EDT FOR NCZ110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RJD
MARINE...RJD/JDW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD



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