Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 281727
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1227 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north of the area today, leading to near
record high temperatures by Wednesday. A strong cold front will
bring showers and a few thunderstorms Wednesday night and early
Thursday, followed by seasonably cool temperatures late week,
with temperatures possibly falling below freezing Saturday
morning. A warming trend is expected Sunday through early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 845 AM Tuesday...All significant rainfall has moved well
off the coast, leaving only a sprinkle or two behind. For the
rest of the day expect slight chance for showers at best and
unseasonably warm temperatures. Have updated forecast
accordingly. Previous discussion from early this morning
follows:

Warm front will linger along the coast this morning as a weak
surface wave in eastern GA creeps northeast along the boundary.
Weak isentropic lift, as the wave approaches the area, has
resulted in patchy showers across the area. Warm front lifts
northwest of the area during the morning Tue with strong warm
advection developing. Advection will push temps into the mid
70s, well above climo, and dewpoints into the lower 60s. Despite
increasing surface based instability this afternoon there may
be a limited amount of diurnal convection. Flow above 8k ft is
westerly, leading to an abundance of dry air aloft, and mid
level lapse rates are weak. The best chance for isolated
convection will be along the modified seabreeze, mainly in
southeastern NC. Additional activity might develop along outflow
from initial storms, but the synoptic wind field may disrupt
most outflow before any deeper convection is able to develop.

Lack of forcing mechanisms and instability during the late evening
and overnight hours should bring an end to any lingering evening
showers and keep the overnight period dry. Strong southwest flow
continues pumping warm moist air over the region and lows will end
up more than 20 degrees above climo, close to what daytime highs
should be for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM Tuesday...Main headline this period is potential
for record warmth Wednesday, followed by passage of a strong
cold front, possibly accompanied by strong to severe TSTMS late
Wednesday into early Thursday. Possibly because it`s passage is
not lined up well with diurnal heating, but low-level winds will
be strong nonetheless. As it stands right now the SPC has laid
out a slight risk that extends as far east as I-95. Record highs
Wednesday 3/1 include CRE-81 in 1955, ILM-83 in 1918, and
FLO-84 in 1997. Expected rainfall with front 020-0.40 on
average.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 325 AM Tuesday...Main theme this period is seasonably
cold, and below normal temperatures on Saturday, where sub
freezing readings may prevail at daybreak Saturday as strong
high pressure migrates across the region. The cold early
Saturday could damage early blooms or flowering crops. The high
will slip off the SE coast Sunday allowing the start of a
warming trend. Late Monday a cold front will approach from the
west, but with the parent low over the Great Lakes, the front
may not be very powerful here locally.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 18Z...Precip chances will remain below mentionable levels
through the TAF valid period although a stray shower cannot be
ruled out. VFR through the daylight hours all terminals, with
good confidence IFR conditions developing overnight throughout
the area. All terminals will likely see cigs less than 1000 ft
as stratus develops in the early morning hours. Lower confidence
in sea fog development overnight for the Grand Strand region.

Extended Outlook...Risk for reduced ceilings and visibility in
showers and thunderstorms, mainly Wed night into Thu morning
otherwise VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 845 AM Tuesday...Latest obs and radar show strong
thunderstorms this morning have now moved east of the waters.
Seas are settling back down in the 3 ft range now that formerly
gusty winds have decreased. Previous discussion from early this
morning follows:

Warm front near the coast this morning has resulted in a mix of
light north to northwest winds closer to shore with stronger
southerly winds farther off the coast. The warm front lifts
north of the area today with Bermuda High expanding west and
southwest flow developing across the waters. Southwest flow of
10 to 15 kt through the afternoon will increase to 15 to 20 kt
overnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft through the morning will start
trending up late in the day as southwest flow starts to
increase. Seas by the end of the period will be running 3 to 5
ft.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM Tuesday...A Small Craft Advisory will likely be
needed sometime on Wednesday, certainly by evening but timing is
a bit nebulous right now with marginal conditions during the
day. Will not raise flags until it becomes more clear on timing.
the other hazard will be strong TSTMS Wednesday night which
will produce locally higher winds and waves. Count of 4-8 foot
seas late Wednesday, wind a wind-shift early Thursday. An
improving trend Thursday as high pressure nears and winds ease,
but an Advisory in the very early going.


LONG TERM /FRIDAY AND SATURDAY/...
As of 325 AM Tuesday...Clipper like system will bring an
increase in N winds Friday but improvement is expected into
Saturday as high pressure moves almost overhead, but chilly.
Seas Friday 3-5 feet will ease to 2-4 feet into Saturday. An
under-lying ESE swell of 1-2 feet will prevail this period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/III
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...REK
MARINE...MJC/REK/III


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