Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 021553
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1150 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER INLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY...A SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS HOLDING OVER THE
AREA TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING LIGHT WINDS. A
CLOUDLESS AND WARM AND HUMID START TO THE DAY...ALREADY CLOSE TO
80 SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. WITH STRONG HEATING TODAY
AND DECENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS...TEMPS WILL SOAR
ABOVE 90 MOST PLACES...WITH SEA BREEZE DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON. AS
IT PUSHES INLAND IT WILL REMAIN THE FOCAL POINT FOR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MAY GENERATE SOME CU...BUT PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT
WILL KEEP SHWRS AT BAY FOR THE MOST PART. OVERALL...ASIDE FOR SOME
LOCALIZED CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE INTO
TONIGHT....MAINLY VISIBLE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING DOWN FROM THE NW. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE VISIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY ACT TO FILTER OUT SOME SUNSHIEN BUT MODELS
SHOW ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER NC/VA
BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISHING AS IT REACHES OUR NW CWA
BOUNDARY LATE EVENING...CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE MAY SEE A FEW
STRAY SHWRS/TSTMS REACH OUR NORTHERN TIER BUT OVERALL EXPECT MAINLY
CLOUDS MOVING DOWN OVER THE AREA. TEMPS HOLDING UP IN THE 70S MOST
PLACES OVERNIGHT IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD FAR NORTH INTO THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THURSDAY. AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER
OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED INLAND TROUGH WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS LACKING IN THE SHORT TERM. A DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM
IS ALSO LACKING AS WELL THUS PRIMARILY KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND ONLY A WEAK INLAND TROUGH TO
WORK WITH SOME INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
DAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO OCCUR THURSDAY (LOWER 90S
COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 90S FARTHER INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE DURING THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A BROAD/WEAK UPPER LOW MAY EVOLVE AND SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
OR WHEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST...BUT THE
TREND IS FOR INCREASING POPS BY SUNDAY. THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR VSBYS AT KLBT WILL RISE
QUICKLY TO VFR. LIGHT WSW-WNW WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY SCT EXCEPT FOR TEMPO 6K CIGS POSSIBLY THIS
AFTERNOON AT KLBT.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT SW-W LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTHERN TERMINALS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED THUS HAVE NOT
ADDRESSED IN TAFS. IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS IFR/MVFR VSBYS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL BE STRUNG OUT FROM WEST TO
EAST SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL WATERS BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
LOCALLY THROUGH TODAY. BASICALLY A LIGHTER OFF
SHORE...NW-W...FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ON SHORE WINDS GUSTIER
WINDS...BASICALLY SE-S. WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS...SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 FT OR LESS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM
WEDNESDAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH. AS A
RESULT...VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AS
NORTHEAST FETCH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS 3-5 FT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BY
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH
SEAS 3-4 FT. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MRR





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