Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 200523
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1223 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures are expected through the weekend and
for much of next week. High pressure will migrate across the
Southeast states through the weekend shifting off the coast by
early next week. Scattered showers are expected ahead of a cold
front early next week. The cold front will move across the area
and offshore Tuesday. High pressure will follow for the remainder
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 800 PM Friday...Temps cooling faster than expected this
eve in several locations, but will level off late eve and
overnight as very light SW flow persists. Expect lows in the
upper 20s and lower 30s with the coldest inland locations
dipping to the mid 20s. This could be the last night temps drop
below freezing for at least several days.

At the surface high pressure, well to our west, will drift east
slightly. Above the surface layer, weak high pressure will be
centered over Florida and the Bahamas. This setup will result in
neutral to very weakly warm advection.

Highs on Sat will be around 60 and that represents a 4-5 degree
deviation above climatology.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM Friday...Weak surface high over the western
Atlantic will remain the main surface feature through the
period. Weak southern stream shortwave will move east over the
northern Gulf of Mexico Sat night and Sun, moving off the FL
coast Sun night. This feature may end up increasing mid and
upper level moisture over the forecast area early in the
weekend. Cirrus may linger over the area Sat night before skies
clear out for Sun. Weak shortwave ridge builds over the
Southeast late in the period as the shortwave exits to the east.
Digging 5h trough over the western plains Sun will lead to an
increase in southwest flow aloft which may advect some thicker
cirrus over the region as the period ends. Temperatures will be
around 5 degrees above climo overnight with high running closer
to 10 degrees above.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 PM Friday...A relatively quiet work week anticipated.
Models are in decent agreement in taking an upper closed low
located over the central U.S. on Monday, and lifting it NE to
the Eastern Great Lakes. The sfc low will follow the same
general path, however it`s associated cold front will push
across the FA during Tue. The FA will see highs in the 60s both
Mon and Tue along with breezy conditions especially on Tue.
Models indicate High pressure will then follow Wed thru Fri
with temperatures at or slightly above climo norms. Flow aloft
during the Wed thru Fri time line will prevent the cold air
over Canada from dropping this far south.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 06Z...VFR conditions expected through the duration of the
valid TAF period. Weak high pressure will build into the area
and with moisture limited in the column, even clouds will be
limited if present at all.

Extended Outlook...VFR. Possible MVFR/SHRA late Mon/early Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 800 PM Friday...West to southwest winds through the
period with high pressure remaining to our west and only moving
slightly eastward. The broad swath of light offshore winds will
keep seas in the 2-3 ft range.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM Friday...Weak high pressure centered just
southeast of the waters during the period will maintain weak
gradient and light winds over the waters. Flow will be from the
south with speeds under 10 kt through the period. Seas around 2
ft Sat night will run 2 ft or less Sun and Sun night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 PM Friday...The highlight for this period will be a
CFP slated for Tue morning. Weak onshore flow Mon will increase
and become SW Mon night into Tue ahead of the cold front. After
FROPA Tue, winds will veer to the W and NW and then slowly
abate by Tue night and continuing into Wed as the center of high
pressure approaches from the Gulf Coast States. SCEC conditions
likely late Monday into Tue with SCA at this point a possibility.
Significant seas 1 to 3 ft Mon will build to 3 to 5 ft with a
few 6 footers possible late Mon night into Tue. As winds become
offshore, W to NW, on Tue, seas will actually subside due to a
shortened fetch. Wind driven waves at 4 to 5 second periods will
dominate Mon into Tue. By Wed, seas will run 1 to 3 ft thruout
with a small ESE ground swell dominating.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJD/MBB
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...



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