Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KILM 181912
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
312 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA AND
THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHEAST. A HIGH PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL THEN REASSERT ITSELF BRIEFLY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE ON TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...A CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA TO REACH THE GEORGIA COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE WILL COUPLE WITH MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF LOW TO ENHANCE LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
CURRENTLY SURGING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF ACROSS MUCH OF GEORGIA
WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST AND OVERSPREAD THE CWA THIS EVENING. THE
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
FOR THE ILM CWA. MOS GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT. WITH A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 INLAND TO NEAR 55 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...PERIOD WILL LIKELY BEGIN WITH AN ONGOING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SATURDAY
MORNING WILL FIND THE LOW MOVING OFFSHORE NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH A WARM FRONT LINED UP JUST OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST. THE LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY AS IT WILL BE NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW. HAVE AGAIN
LEANED ON THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THEY SEEMED IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN THE NAM WHICH GOES FOR AN OVERALL DRYER FORECAST.
DID NOT LIKE HOW THE NAM WEAKENS AND THEN TRIES TO WASH OUT THE
SYSTEM EARLY. PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT THESE TYPES OF
SYSTEMS HANG IN LONGER THAN GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE.

GIVEN THE ABOVE AND BASED ON MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM WILL START OFF
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN AND GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF PRECIPITATION THEREAFTER. CHANCE POPS AND EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER WILL EXTEND INTO SUNDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND NO MENTIONABLE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPRESS
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY...AND UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE...MAINLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...BUT WARMER AND MORE TYPICAL MID-SPRING WEATHER EXPECTED
TO FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

A VERY SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL FINALLY BE PUSHING AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND DEFLECTS IT OFFSHORE.
WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY PERSIST THE FIRST PART OF
MONDAY...DRYING OF THE COLUMN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AND A LOT
OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW SEASONABLE
NORMS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT WORKS
EAST ON TUESDAY...LIKELY CROSSING THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 70S...BUT
SOME CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL DRIVE TEMPS TO SEASONABLE OR
JUST BELOW AGAIN WED/THU...EVEN WITH AMPLE LATE-APRIL SUNSHINE.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN
A NICE WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE SOUTH SPREADS RAIN NE ACROSS THE TERMINALS. CIGS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 2.0-6K...LOWEST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR VSBYS
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF VERY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN. THE MAIN AREA
OF RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SW-NE INITIALLY REACHING KFLO/KMYR 20-21Z
AND THE REMAINING TERMINALS 1-3 HOURS LATER. ONCE THE MAIN RAIN BAND
MOVES IN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. DECENT ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY MODERATE RAINFALL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE
OF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS THIS EVENING...AND IFR CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THERE COULD BE LIGHTER RAINFALL AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE TERMINALS. IF
THIS OCCURS VSBYS COULD IMPROVE...BUT STILL EXPECT IFR CIGS TO
CONTINUE IN A SATURATED LOW-LEVEL UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. NE-N WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS SATURDAY COULD LINGER WELL INTO
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY. TEMPO MVFR/SHOWERS TUESDAY. VFR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE GEORGIA
COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER AND WILL APPROACH THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT NEARS THE
WATERS...WINDS WILL VEER TOWARDS THE ENE AND ARE EXPECTED TO
LIGHTEN UP A BIT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKER GRADIENT. DESPITE THE
POSSIBILITY OF WINDS FALLING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...ROUGH SEAS WILL WARRANT ITS CONTINUATION THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXTEND THROUGH
MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE NEAR TERM AS A STEADY MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE
MODEST...ONLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...THEY WILL INCREASE TO 20
TO 25 KTS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF
FLORIDA. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO THE 6 TO 10 FT RANGE AS A RESULT.
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXTEND THROUGH THE ENTIRE
WEEKEND.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY...LEAVING
NORTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL EASE FROM 15-20 KTS EARLY TO LESS THAN
10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN
INTO THE AREA BRIEFLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS RESPOND QUICKLY TO THESE CHANGING
CONDITIONS...BECOMING SW AT 10-20 KTS TUESDAY...AND THEN QUICKLY
VEERING TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AT 15-25
KTS. THIS IS WHEN THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL...AND SOME
6 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN A BRIEF SCA MAY
BE NEEDED. WINDS THEN REMAIN FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH
SLOWLY DECREASING SPEEDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/JDW/CRM





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.