Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 261859
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
259 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate into Sunday, bringing mostly dry
weather and increasing heat. A cold front approaching from the
north may bring late day thunderstorms to portions of the area
Sunday. This front will then linger in the area for much of next
week, keeping the weather unsettled.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Surface high pressure was centered to our
south with ridge axis to our W and this high will remain at the
helm through Saturday. This ridge will get flattened as a
shortwave trough moves through the Great lakes and Mid-West,
thus allowing the flow aloft across the eastern Carolinas to
become a little more zonal tonight.

Except for some thin cirrus overnight, skies will be clear as winds
quickly diminish this eve. Dewpoint recovery will also occur quickly
this eve and we expect lows to be a category or so higher tonight as
compared to last night, mainly lower to mid 60s with some upper 60s
at the beaches.

Deep westerly flow in place on Sat. A Thunderstorm cluster is
expected to develop upstream of the central/southern Appalachians
during the afternoon. The flow should take this convection eastward,
keeping it to our NW through the daylight hours of Sat. Deep
westerly flow and rising 850 mb temps point to higher temps on Sat
with still manageable humidity levels although dewpoints will be a
good 10 degrees higher Sat afternoon as compared to this afternoon.
Highs on Sat will be in the low 90s. The seabreeze will once again
be pinned rather near the immediate coast, making its greatest
inland advancement across Brunswick County during the afternoon.
Beach temps will be in the lower to mid 80s. A breezy SW wind is
expected on Sat, 15 to 25 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Somewhat of an active period as the convergence
of a split flow at the mid levels over the Tennessee Valley
keeps a parade of shortwaves moving through the area. At the
surface a baroclinic zone will be aligned in close proximity to
the mid level pattern with an east/west boundary draped along
the Tennessee/Virginia border.

The first shortwave moves through late Saturday evening and with the
consistency of the GFS, I have increased pops for a few hours. There
will be a 12-18 hour lull in activity through Sunday afternoon
before another stronger wave moves across. I have tweaked pops to
show Sunday morning mostly dry with the pops relegated to more of an
afternoon/evening scenario. There is some severe potential with the
activity so please refer to the Storm Prediction Center`s Day 2 and
3 Convective Outlooks. Warm temperatures will continue with a down
slope/west to northwesterly flow aloft with highs a couple of
degrees either side of 90 and lows in the upper 60s to lower
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Primary headline for the extended forecast
period is `unsettled`, as a low-amplitude but broad upper trough
translates slowly east across New England and the Mid-Atlantic
seaboard. Near the base of the trough, phasing impulses from the
southern jet stream over top the Gulf ridge will allow a series of
whisking disturbances to bring TSTM chances much of the upcoming
week when coupled with late May and early June heating and an active
afternoon sea breeze boundary. Temperatures however will remain
slightly above normal as the thermal influence is exerted more by
the Gulf and SE states upper ridge. No shortage of column mositure
or dry mid level caps to impede convection with PWAT values of 1.5
to 1.75 inches next week, so what convection does form will be
capable of dumping good rain amounts. Storm motion generally will be
from west to east, so all locations will have a good chance of
rainfall and TSTMS at one point during the upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 18Z Friday...High confidence in VFR at all the terminals.
In fact, except for some very small and transient cumulus this
afternoon and some thin cirrus during the late night hours
tonight, skies will be SKC through the valid TAF period. Winds
will be W to WSW at 10 to 20 kt through sunset and then under 10
kt overnight and through the end of the valid TAF period on
Sat.

Extended Outlook...MVFR conditions possible in scattered
showers and thunderstorms late Sun through Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...The approach of the new moon and perigee will
increase the tidal ranges and this will bring higher high tides and
lower low tides through the weekend. Abnormally low water levels
will quickly recover for the remainder of the afternoon. The
seabreeze will keep SW winds in the 15 to 20 kt range into this eve,
highest across the near shore waters. As the boundary dissipates
later this eve and overnight, wind speeds will diminish to 10 to 15
kt and the direction will back to westerly. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft.
We expect winds and seas to be similarly driven by a healthy
seabreeze on Saturday with the strongest winds, up to 15 to 20 kt in
association with the afternoon and eve seabreeze circulation.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Expect a mostly southwest and fairly brisk flow
at times through the period. There may be a brief interval of
westerly winds in the wake of shortwaves both early Sunday and
Monday. Speeds will be 15-20 knots initially with a good low level
jet and back off a bit for Sunday and early Monday with more of a 10-
15 knot range. Significant seas will mostly be 2-4 feet with a
possibility of a few five footers early. The spectrum will lean more
toward the lower end at the end of the period as well.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...SW winds this period 15 KT or less except
higher afternoon gusts associated with an active sea breeze. Sea
heights generally a 2-3 foot range this period, along with isolated
to scattered inshore TSTMS mainly in the late afternoons and evening
as storms push off land over the 0-20NM waters. Troughing inland may
bring the highest winds of 15-20 KT sustained Wednesday. Mariners
should get a radar update before heading out this period as there
will be a chance of storms each day.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...RJD



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