Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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272
FXUS62 KILM 261155
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
755 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level ridge of high pressure will allow for warm
temperatures and minimal rain chances through much of the weekend
and early next week. At the surface there will be a light onshore
flow. A wave of low pressure will be monitored for possible
tropical development as it moves across southern Florida during
the weekend and then into the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 624 AM Friday...Evolving upper and surface pattern remains
unhurried today and tonight, as an upper ridge centered over far
eastern TN, roams ENE to interior VA by daybreak Saturday. This
will allow a weak surface ridge axis to remain positioned just SE
of the SE NC and NE SC coasts. The flat pressure pattern coupled
with subsidence aloft will promote a light south wind today and
plenty sunshine with maximum temperatures slightly above normal
for late August. Latest VWP off KLTX shows well the light S low-
level flow topped by mild ridge winds aloft. At the base of these
ridge winds lies a trapped 950-875 MB layer of mositure at the
disposal of heat induced cumulus development this afternoon. The
overwhelming impacts of the upper ridge will prevent any hope of
precipitation today, as parcels aloft are desert-like and sinking.
Maximums today middle 90s inland and 88-91 closer to the coast.
Overnight in a word `fair`. Minimum temperatures first light on
Saturday mainly low 70s, milder by the sea and ICW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Friday...The chief weather caption this period is `nice
and warm late summer weekend`. Temperatures will run a few degrees
above normal with isolated rain chances, primarily inland during
afternoon heating. The upper ridge to the north will maintain a hold
of the area for the most part. By Sunday, swell waves may increase
the rip current risk but no direct tropical threat is expected this
weekend. Column moisture begins to deepen up to 700 MB by Saturday
afternoon as the upper ridge weakens and lower column winds become
more onshore. This coupled with several weak impulses rounding the
upper ridge could spark a few showers or a storm this weekend,
though isolated in anticipated coverage and late in the afternoon
or during the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 AM Friday...Weakening mid level ridge center will be to our
north on Monday and the surface pattern will favor a light onshore
flow. On these matters models agree pretty well. How strong of a
vort max slides under the southern edge of the upper ridge is not.
GFS has trended towards the stronger solutions so this feature may
be able to boost ascent over the low level moist flow for at least
chance POPS to be warranted. Upper weakness remains along the coast
Tuesday though it may shift eastward slightly. Wednesday and
Thursday brings a broad and deepening trough into New England that
will cause a drying NW flow locally.  Temperatures will show very
little variation through the period and tend to average just a few
degrees above climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 12Z...No significant weather expected and VFR is likely to
continue at all terminals through the next 24 hours. The only chance
of sub VFR will be when patchy fog develops early Saturday morning.

Light and variable winds will become E as the morning progresses,
then SE. Sct-bkn stratocumulus inov 5-6k early will become generally
sct by late morning/early afternoon.

Winds become light/variable to calm this evening. After 08Z have
added tempo groups to fog prone terminals KCRE/KLBT to indicate the
increased potential of fog. Confidence of occurrence is moderate, but
confidence is low as to timing and actual vsby reductions.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Potential for sub VFR due to areas of haze or fog
early each morning and with isolated convection on Monday and
Tuesday. Otherwise VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 624 AM Friday...Idyllic marine conditions today and tonight
as wind energy is low with manageable longer period E waves
rolling in, and no TSTMS posing a threat over the waters. Seas of
2-3 feet today and tonight can be expected in mainly E waves every
8-9 seconds, with a light S chop in the afternoon during the sea
breeze peak. A weak surface ridge axis offshore will maintain a
light S and SW winds during the evening and overnight period.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Friday...Opportunity abounds this weekend as marine
conditions remain welcoming. Light and variable winds early Saturday
will become SE 10 KT or less. High pressure building slightly in
from the north will produce NE-E winds 10 KT Sunday. With low wind
energy overall, longer period waves of 9 and 11 seconds should be
seen. Very late in the period Sunday night we may see wave heights
increase due to swell waves. A few showers will dot the waters
Sunday.

LONG TERM/MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Friday...A very light wind expected both days with a
poorly defined pressure pattern just barely strong enough to keep
an E flow direction pronounced. The exception will be where wind
locally turns coast-perpendicular and accelerates a few knots as
the seabreeze develops each afternoon. The shorter wind chop will
thus be minimal but there will be a well defined swell component
from Gaston.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
.



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