Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 261759
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
159 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. SHARP COOLING WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S THIS WEEKEND...AND POSSIBLY NEAR
FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL REBOUND QUICKLY
TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM THURSDAY...WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY SLIGHT POPS AT
THE MOST...FOR THIS AFTN. THUS...POPS IF ANY FOR THE AFTN WILL BE
ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
MID-LEVEL S/W TROF WILL KEEP THE ILM CWA RELATIVELY PCPN FREE
INTO THIS EVENING. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FOR CU/SC
DEVELOPMENT BUT AGAIN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE VERTICAL. POPS WILL RAMP BACK UP MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO DAYLIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC COLD
FRONT DROPPING FROM THE NW...AND A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF APPROACHING
FROM THE SW. STILL BANKING ON SOME LATE MARCH INSOLATION THIS
AFTERNOON TO AID MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S ALONG WITH SOME 80S VIA 00Z
AND 06Z VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL BECOME ACTIVE THIS
AFTN...MAINLY FROM THE SSW-SW AT 10 TO 15 WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS
WELL AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WARRANT LIKELY POPS TROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WEST TO EAST. ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND
CERTAINLY ENOUGH DYNAMICS AS THE POWERFUL VORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS WARRANTS HOLDING ON TO POPS AND
DRIZZLE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MAINTAINED THE MIX OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY SATURDAY BUT ANY APPEARANCE OF
FLAKES WILL BE FLEETING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH CLEARING SKIES
WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO SUNDAY MORNING LOWS AS MODELS AND GUIDANCE
REMAIN CONSISTENT ON THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEING CENTERED ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS. MEX NUMBERS ARE ALL BUT UNCHANGED WITH 30 IN
WILMINGTON AND 28 IN LBT. THE CONSISTENCY OF THE HIGHS PLACEMENT
OVER THE APPALACHIANS GIVES SOME POSSIBILITY OF WINDS REMAINING UP
JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT A DESTRUCTIVE FREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...A RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL EXTENDED PERIOD
AS THE MID LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS. A SUBTLE TROUGH WILL PUSH A
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. THE LATEST GFS HAS THIS OCCURRING
MUCH FASTER AND WETTER THAN THE ECMWF BUT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
THE SLOWER AND DRIER SOLUTION FAVORED BY WPC. THIS FEATURE WILL
SERVE TO BRIEFLY PUT A HOLD ON THE WARMUP THAT WILL PICK UP IN
EARNEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER COLD
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS MONDAY MORNING DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 30S. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE 60S AND 40S. WEDNESDAY WILL
SEE A NICE WARMUP WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 70S. NO POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...PRECIPITATION HAS PULLED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THINGS GET A BIT UNCERTAIN AFTER THIS EVENING.
THE NAM INTRODUCES SEA FOG BUT THE GFS DOES NOT.
REGARDLESS...THINGS WILL GO DOWNHILL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT
POTENT COLD FRONT APPROACHES...ACCOMPANIED BY A MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROF. WITH INCREASINGLY DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH THE ATM
COLUMN...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER
MIDNIGHT... BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS BY DAYBREAK FRI. HAVE INCLUDED
THUNDER ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR A SHORT PERIOD DURING LATE
TONIGHT INTO DAYTIME FRI MORNING.

LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAYTIME FRI MORNING HOURS.
LOOKING AT FROPA AT THE INLAND TERMINALS 15-16Z...17-18Z FOR THE
COASTAL TERMS. POST FRONTAL...EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM THURSDAY...MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION EXITED STAGE
NE-E OF THE LOCAL WATERS. WIND SHIFT IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING
PCPN...HAS NOW BECOME SSW-SSE. TEMPORARY LAPSE IN THE SFC PG WILL
RESULT WITH WINDS 10-15 KT OR AROUND 15 KT...BUT PICK BACK UP
LATER THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT AS THE THE SFC PG RETIGHTENS AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR SSW-SW WINDS IN THE 10-20 KT
RANGE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM
A SW DIRECTION WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. WILL RE-ASSESS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SCA THRESHOLDS BEING MET FOR THE ILM SC WATERS
LATER TONIGHT...AND FOR ALL WATERS GOING INTO DAYLIGHT FRI.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 3 TO 5 FT SC WATERS...AND 4 TO 6 FT NC
WATERS. NO GROUND SWELL TO SPEAK OF...AS A RESULT WIND DRIVEN
WAVES WILL DOMINATE WITH AVERAGE PERIODS AT 5 TO 6 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING SHIFTING THE WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS
DUE TO RESIDUAL HIGHER SEAS FROM THE PREFRONTAL FLOW. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KNOTS. THIS WILL PERSIST FOR
SOME TIME AND ONLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER
SEAS...3-5 FEET WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE OUTERMOST WATERS DURING
THIS TIME. SEAS DROP TO 2-3 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH THE
EVER WEAKENING WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRIFTING OVERHEAD SUNDAY
RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS FIELDS ACROSS THE WATERS.EXPECT NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS INITIALLY BACKING OFF TO TEN KNOTS OR LESS BY
SUNSET. A RETURN FLOW OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 15-
20 KNOTS DEVELOPS MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 2-4 FEET CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/DL


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