Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 050835
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
335 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

convective remnants continues to slowly drop southeast into
northwestern il late tonight and this could reach into northern
parts of the cwa this morning. other showers/storms have developed
along the weak boundary in northern/northeastern il...where
scattered storms developed yesterday evening. believe isolated
storms will be possible again this morning in the north part of
the cwa and then again in northeast parts of the cwa along the
persistent weak boundary...mainly along and north of i-74. along
and south of this boundary...southerly winds will once again bring
unseasonably warm air into the area this afternoon with highs in
the lower to middle 80s. combined with dewpoints around 70...am
expecting heat index values in the 95 to 100 range again.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT FORMS ALONG WEAK BOUNDARY IN OUR NE
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON MAY LINGER UNTIL MID EVENING. OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/SE
IL. 00Z FORECAST MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM TEXAS
TO IL THROUGH THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND, AND CONTINUE THE LATE SUMMER
HEAT WAVE A FEW MORE DAYS. USED PERSISTANCE FOR HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S (SIMILAR HIGHS SINCE THU/SEP 3) AND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON MONDAY/LABOR DAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO
MORE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FROM I-55 NW. DEWPOINTS OF 65-70F WILL
GIVE HEAT INDICES OF 95-100F SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IN THE 90S MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MUGGY LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND TRY TO
BREAK DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER IL BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH NW IL LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NW OF IL RIVER
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING FURTHER SE INTO CENTRAL IL DURING
DAY MONDAY. AREAS SE OF CHAMPAIGN...DECATUR AND TAYLORVILLE LIKELY
STAY DRY AND HOTTER ON MONDAY. SPC KEEPS MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS WEST OF CWA FROM QUINCY WEST MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. CHANCES OF
CONVECTION INCREASE OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE AS A STRONGER
WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO CENTRAL IL. SOUTHEAST IL SOUTH OF I-70 MOSTLY
STAY DRY YET DURING THIS TIME WITH CHANCES OF CONVECTION SPREADING
INTO SOUTHEAST IL TUE NIGHT/WED. CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
APPEARS TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED DURING MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH WARM HIGHS TUE RANGING FROM LOWER 80S NW OF IL RIVER TO NEAR
90F SOUTHEAST OF I-70. HIGHS WED 80-85F AND COOL DOWN TO MID TO
UPPER 70S BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Saturday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE E-SE WINDS
ACROSS CENTRAL IL TERMINALS TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE BY
EARLY MORNING. A SMALL SHORT WAVE OVER FROM UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD NW IL BY 12Z/SAT KEEPING ITS ISOLATED CONVECTION NW
OF THE IL RIVER/PIA. THIS WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS OF 12-15K FT
TO CENTRAL IL AFTER 14Z/SAT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
18-24Z SATURDAY...BUT LIKELIHOOD AT TERMINALS TOO SMALL FOR
MENTION AT THIS TIME. EARLY MORNING FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE AT KCMI DUE
TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS TO
CONTINUE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD...GENERALLY SOUTHERLY UP TO 8
KTS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Onton


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