Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 291955

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
255 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have exited east of the
Wabash river at mid afternoon. A weak front has recently pushed east
of the Wabash river with breezy WNW winds behind the front bringing
in drier air. Dewpoints range from the mid 50s to lower 60s over
central IL to 64-68F along and southeast of a Robinson to Flora
line. Diurnally driven scattered cumulus cloud field with bases of 5-
8k ft will dissipate at sunset leaving fair skies much of tonight
with nearby 1020 mb high pressure over AR and southern MO. Breezy
WNW winds 8-16 mph and gusts of 20-28 mph this afternoon will
diminish light after sunset. A weak short wave over central Iowa
will track east across northern IL/IN and southern WI tonight
keeping isolated convection north of CWA. Lows tonight mostly in the
lower 60s which similar MET/MAV guidance reflects.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Model agreement is pretty good with respect to the weather pattern
expected across central and southeast Illinois over the next week.
Temperatures will average slightly above normal into midweek until a
storm system moves through the area (highs in the 80s, lows in the
60s). Then, temperatures will trend toward normal or a little below
(highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s) to end the forecast period.

A quiet start to the day is anticipated Monday with high pressure in
place at the surface as well as weak upper-level ridging. However,
by late in the day, southerly low level return flow will develop
over at least western portions of the forecast area. This return
flow will help low-level moisture increase again across the area,
prompting modest diurnal instability. This instability may result in
mainly diurnally driven showers/storms late Monday
afternoon/evening, and again Tuesday afternoon/evening. However,
upper-level support is lacking and do not expect significant
organization or coverage with convection that occurs.

By Wednesday into Thursday, a more organized threat of
showers/thunderstorms is anticipated as a northern stream wave and
associated frontal system cross the area. However, even with this
system, the threat of severe storms looks low.

Quieter and somewhat cooler weather is expected behind the midweek
system to end the week. However, another (weaker) northern stream
wave may bring another chance of showers/storms to the area to
finish the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

VFR conditions will continue across the central IL airports next
24 hours through 18Z/1 pm Monday (Memorial Day). Scattered cumulus
clouds (with a few broken ceilings 5-7k ft) developed during late
morning along and south of I-72 with few cumulus clouds from PIA
and BMI north. A weak frontal boundary near the Wabash river will
exit southeast IL by mid afternoon taking isolated convection near
the Wabash river east into Indiana. Diurnally driven cumulus
clouds to dissipate at sunset with scattered cirrus clouds around,
then few-sct cumulus clouds to reappear after 15Z/10 am Monday.
Weak high pressure ridge of 1021 mb over AR and southern MO to
stay near southwest IL next 24 hours bringing fair weather. Breezy
WNW winds 10-15 kts and gusts 20-25 kts this afternoon to diminish
light at sunset, then be WSW 5-9 kts Monday morning.


.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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