Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 020140
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
940 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...KEEPING CLOUDS ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
INDIANA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY
NIGHTS AND PARTLY SUNNY DAYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE ON THURSDAY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AS WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR ARRIVES IN CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 931 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

UPDATE INCLUDED SLOWING CLOUD CLEARING OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST
AREAS. ALL FORECAST SOURCES STILL INDICATE EVENTUAL CLEARING OF
ALL OR MOST LOW CLOUD COVER EXPECT PERHAPS NEAR EAST FORK WHITE
RIVER IN THE SOUTH. FORECAST MIN TEMPS STILL APPEAR TO BE FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

AFTER A DREARY START FOR THE FIRST OF JUNE...TUESDAY SHOULD SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN OVER THE AREA
PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. REALLY
DID NOT NEED TO DEVIATE FROM GUIDANCE AT ALL MODELS LOOK SIMILAR SO
USED A BLEND. THE WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE WELL
HANDLED WITH LOW 70S ON TUE AND MID TO UPPER 70S THU (WITH EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES BEYOND).

NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS INTRODUCED ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MET...NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND A STRONG ENOUGH
FORCING MECHANISM TO PRODUCE MUCH ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA. LOWERED
POPS TO 20 PERCENT AT THIS TIME DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN SETTING UP THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS OHIO
VALLEY REMAINS IN BETWEEN STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL
U S AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

PESKY CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING OUT AND WEAKENING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
THE FEATURE HOWEVER WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY ALONG WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR A DIURNAL THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. AFTER THIS POINT...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
SETTLE INTO A QUASI-NORTHWEST FLOW SETUP WITH THE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE SHIFTED JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS
A HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO SHIFT THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS OVER
THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED MODELS NOW INDICATING A POTENTIAL STRONGER
COLD FRONT ARRIVING NEXT MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES.

WITH THE RIDGE NOW BEING PUSHED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...NUDGED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION /020000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AT
IND AND HUF AND 04Z BEFORE SCATTERING OUT SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WOULD
NOT RULE OUT A LOW STRATUS DECK REDEVLOPING OVERNIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT GOOD AS MOISTURE LAYER IS THIN AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
BE TAKING PLACE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
POSSIBLY A SCATTERED DIURNAL DECK AT 4K FEET OR HIGHER.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS UNTIL SUNSET AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM BEFORE INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...MK

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