Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 250355
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1155 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

High pressure will keep it cool and mostly dry through the middle of
next week. There is a small chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon
and evening, however as an upper trough moves through. An
increasingly warmer and moist southerly flow and an approaching cold
front will result in warmer temperatures and thunderstorm chances
starting Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 932 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Current forecast in good shape. No updates planned at this time.
Previous discussion follows.

The diurnal cu will dissipate after 9 pm and leave behind mostly
clear skies. Gusty west winds will drop off to 5 knots or less
overnight. This should allow temperatures to drop all the way to the
lower and middle 50s overnight per the blend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Sunday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Main focus for the short term will be on temperatures, cloud cover
and timing and coverage of any convection.

A cold front will sweep southeast across central Indiana on Sunday
as an upper trough pivots across the Great Lakes. However, with
moisture limited to a shallow layer around 850 millibars, do not
think there will be anything more than a scattered to broken diurnal
cu deck. High pressure and sunset will then allow for clearing
Sunday night. Then, a stronger upper trough will pivot across the
Great Lakes Monday afternoon and night. This may be enough to spark
some afternoon and evening convection. Models were hinting at weak
instability but enough to warrant thunder mention. Only slightly
deeper moisture would suggest no more than isolated activity.

Surface high pressure will build in and strengthen over the Ohio
Valley on Tuesday. This should allow clearing skies Monday night. Cu
development progs indicate little diurnal cu potential on Tuesday
and with moisture become more shallow and subsidence over the area,
look for mostly sunny or sunny skies.

Regional blend temperatures in pretty good agreement and look
reasonable given low level thermal progs and plenty of daytime sun
and little nighttime cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 156 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Temperatures will be back near seasonal normals and the pattern may
once again turn active mid week onward as flow aloft becomes more
zonal with multiple weak disturbances and a surface frontal system
poised to move into the region late in the week.

Consensus initialization handled things well with few tweaks
required.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 250600z TAFs/...

Issued at 1155 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

VFR Conditions are expected to continue this TAF period. GOES16
shows clear skies across the area. With dew points in the lower
50s...fog is not expected overnight. Forecast soundings and Time
heights continue to suggest a dry column.

Forecast soundings on Sunday afternoon suggest some afternoon CU
will be possible as convectiove temperatures will be reached.
Howevera mid level inversion should prevent any deep convection.
Thus VFR with the occasional passing CI and/or afternoon SCT CU.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/JAS
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JP


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