Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 231808
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
208 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK REPRESENTS
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 940 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.  MADE
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS IN THE GRIDS. BUT ALL IN ALL THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN EXTREMELY QUIET WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AS THE DOMINANT FACTOR. TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST VARIABLE.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST A GRADUAL WARMING...AND HAVE
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO MODEL CONSENSUS TO MATCH THIS
EXPECTATION. SHOULD SEE THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA
EASILY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ON MIN TEMPS...HAVE GENERALLY LEANED
TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

QUIET PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH
STRONG RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. GOOD
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OVER A SHORT WAVE OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...NOW PUSHING THAT
SYSTEMS ARRIVAL BACK INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THUS HAVE
PUSHED LOW CHC POPS OUT UNTIL THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 231800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA AND OHIO IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE STRONG RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO REVEAL
A DRY COLUMN WITH UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR
WINDS TO FALL TO NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT AS HEATING IS LOST...AND
RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND ON HIGH ON WEDNESDAY AFTER 14Z AS
HEATING RESUMES.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

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