Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 271612
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1012 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...16Z SURFACE PLOT SHOWED LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY. MID LEVEL DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED ALL DAY. BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS TODAY A FEW DEGREES
IN ALL LOCATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY
TODAY TO NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. /DL/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND AFTER
TONIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL MORNING LOWS. EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS
HAD A 1012MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEAST TODAY AND DRAG A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING REINFORCING THE DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR
REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A LIGHT NORTH WIND IS
EXPECTED BUT CAA WILL BE WEAK AND NEAR FULL INSOLATION WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE HIGH
WILL BECOME CENTERED NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA TONIGHT BUT THE RESULTING
NORTH WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO DECOUPLE AND LEND TO STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING OF OUR DRY AIRMASS. WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 30S AREAWIDE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
COAST WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT RETURN FLOW OVER OUR REGION BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGING TO OUR WEST TODAY WILL DAMPEN
AND SHIFT OVER OUR CWA WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN DECENT INSOLATION AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
60S AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE RESULTING INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN SOME MIXING WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER OUR CWA LENDING TO ABOVE
NORMAL MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S. /22/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...WILL CAUSE A
COLD FRONT TO SHIFT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS BACK INTO THE
REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES...PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.  BEHIND THIS FRONT...COOLER DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.  AFTER HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THURSDAY...HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AS THEY GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 50S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AND BE IN THE
30S FRIDAY NIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES BEGIN INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT RESIDING OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY...WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL CAUSE PACIFIC
MOISTURE ALOFT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.  THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER MID/UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NATION`S
MID-SECTION...CUTTING OFF A MID/UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THIS DIGGING TROUGH...IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO CAUSE A SURFACE LOW TO
DEVELOP WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IN TURN WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT INTO AND THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW RACES NORTHEAST.  THOUGH THIS IS STILL SOME 5-6 DAYS
OUT...THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS THAT THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO THE REGION DURING THE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT TIMEFRAME.  THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER
THE COMING DAYS.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  MODELS REALLY BEGIN TO STRUGGLE DURING THIS
TIME WITH HOW TO RESOLVE THE BEFORE MENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.  THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS WANTS TO MAINTAIN A
FAIRLY DEEP MID/UPPER LOW UP INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...BRINGING MORE
RAIN INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  WHILE THE ECMWF...WEAKENS THE
LOW TO MERELY AN OPEN WAVE AND KEEPS ANY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IT OUT
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       67  37  63  44 /   0   0   0   3
MERIDIAN      67  32  60  37 /   0   0   0   3
VICKSBURG     69  37  66  48 /   0   0   0   3
HATTIESBURG   71  37  64  40 /   0   0   0   3
NATCHEZ       69  39  66  48 /   0   0   0   3
GREENVILLE    66  36  62  47 /   0   0   0   8
GREENWOOD     64  33  61  45 /   0   0   0   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$





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