Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 221543 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
943 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for morning discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A cool & sunny afternoon, other a few passing high clouds in the
Pine Belt, is in store as a strong dry cold front has moved
through the area overnight. The front is moving off the Gulf
Coast into the central Gulf of Mexico. Our area is situated under
strong cold air advection & northwest surface winds, with
decreasing moisture & lower PWs expected to move in throughout the
afternoon. 12Z regional soundings show around a quarter to half
inch PWs & preliminary & non-operational GOES-16 water vapor
imagery show even drier air to our north. There also seems to be a
low level thermal trough with only near 5 deg C @ 925mb in the
ArkLaMiss Delta while near 10 deg C @ 925 in the Pine Belt. This
will lead to cooler than normal high temperatures, mainly in the
low-mid 50s in the Highway 82 corridor (~7-10 degrees below
normal) while in the low-mid 60s along & south of the I-20
corridor & extending into the Pine Belt (~5 degrees below normal).
Made some tweaks to slightly lower highs in the Delta while
increasing them slightly in the Pine Belt.

As a secondary shortwave (per prelim. & non-op. GOES-16 water
vapor imagery) in the mid-Mississippi Valley over Missouri dives
south-southeast this afternoon, expect the nearly 1030mb surface
high to build south & continued dry air (around or less than a
quarter of an inch PWs & dewpoints in the mid-upper 20s) to advect
in. As the surface high drifts south, expect it to weaken
somewhat & the pressure gradient to lessen. Expect the strongest
gusty winds to come before noon with winds becoming somewhat
lighter throughout the day. With such cooler high temperatures,
humidity not as low & lighter winds expected in the afternoon,
fire weather concerns will be low. /DC/

Prior discussion below:

Today through Tonight: Latest Rap and Satellite imagery showed
an upper trough over the Mississippi Valley with a cold front
moving through the region. The front was able to push any showers
associated with a disturbance in the gulf to the south. Predawn
readings were in the 30s and 40s.

For today expect some breezy northerly winds in the wake of the
front especially in the delta region. Under full insolation it will
be another cool day with below normal readings with highs in the
middle 50s northwest to around 60 southeast. For tonight expect the
winds to taper off as high pressure builds into the region from the
northwest as the upper trough persist across the region. Under clear
skies and light north winds radiational cooling will provide lows
from the middle 20s to the lower 30s./17/

Thanksgiving Day through mid week next week:

Cool, dry air will continue to filter into the ArkLaMiss on
Thanksgiving Day resulting in a clear, cool holiday. Expect highs
to range from the upper 50s to near 60 and lows on Friday morning
falling to near or below freezing for a good portion of the
region with better chances in the Northeastern counties of our
region. A stagnant upper ridge centered over the Baja Peninsula
will result in persistent upper NW flow over the region through
early next week. Pwats on Thursday will fall below 0.25" but
moisture will begin to increase by the weekend ahead of a surface
front that will extend from southern Canada to the Gulf Coast,
traversing through the ArkLaMiss on Saturday. No precip is
expected along this front and only an increase in cloudiness is
expected. Dry air will once again filter into the region behind
this frontal passage. The weather pattern will begin to modify
early next week as the upper ridge to the west finally starts to
shift east, resulting in increasing upper heights over the region.
Low level southerly flow will gradually begin to increase on
Monday as a surface high moves east of the area resulting in
return flow from the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures should reach
well above their average late November values by Tuesday before a
front approaches the region on Wednesday, bringing our only
chances of rain over the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions are expected to continue. A cold front will push
through the region and bring northerly winds back to the forecast
area around 10kts, with some locations seeing gusts of 15-20kts by
later this morning into during the day. Winds will taper off by
this evening as the front moves off to the southeast./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       60  30  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      61  30  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     59  28  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   64  32  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       60  28  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    53  28  55  34 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     54  26  57  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

DC



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