Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
FXUS62 KJAX 291936
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
336 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017
.NEAR TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY...High pressure will be East
Northeast of the region through Sunday. Moisture convergence along
sea breeze and differential heating boundaries, along with
surface instability could lead to a few spotty inland showers this
afternoon, but chance is below mention.
With lower level moisture continuing and little change in the
overall flow pattern, expect stratus to form and spread again
Tonight. These clouds will decrease Sunday morning. There will be a
little better chance for inland convective initiation Sunday
afternoon as the approach of an upper trough provides additional
source for instability.
Temperatures will continue above normal this period.
Sunday night through Tuesday night...Atlantic ridge will shift
east as an upper low/trough moves from the central Plains across
the Great Lakes into Canada on Tuesday. This system will bring a
cold front through the area with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms late Monday into Tuesday. With best lift and
dynamics to the north the front will slow down and weaken as it
moves across se Ga/ne Fl Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Rainfall amounts look to be light with amounts expected to be less
than one half inch. Above normal temperatures expected on Monday
and near normal on Tuesday.
.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday...Models continue to
change in the extended period with the latest 12z GFS and ECMWF
models now in closer agreement. Thus forecast confidence is low
with the evolving details during this period. Models show an upper
low cutting off over the southern U.S. with it drifiting e into
Ms by Saturday. The ensemble means are a little faster moving
this feature eastward. Have a chance of showers and thunderstorms
each day as moisture and instability increase.
.MARINE...High pressure will be East Northeast of area waters
through early Monday. A cold front will cross area waters Monday
night. High pressure will build to the North Tuesday then to the
Northeast Wednesday. High pressure will be to the East into
Friday, with a cold front moving through Friday night into
.AVIATION...Stratus is expected to redevelop Tonight and linger
into Sunday morning, with restrictions expected. Winds will remain
gusty this afternoon, then diminish after sunset, and become
gusty once again Sunday morning.
.FIRE WEATHER...Dispersions will remain high due to breezy
southeast winds enhanced by the east coast seabreeze late this
afternoon and evening and again on Sunday. Smoke from Mims
wildfire will drift to the northwest across se Ga...mainly between
Homerville and Waycross. Minimum RH`s will remain above 40
percent with hot and humid conditions continuing. Winds will
become south to southwest with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms Monday afternoon and night ahead of an approaching
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 67 90 69 86 / 10 10 10 50
SSI 73 84 73 82 / 10 10 20 30
JAX 68 86 71 89 / 10 10 10 20
SGJ 73 85 72 86 / 10 10 10 30
GNV 66 89 69 89 / 10 20 20 20
OCF 68 91 69 90 / 10 20 20 30