Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 181847
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
247 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO TREK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF...AND WILL APPROACH THE BIG BEND BY THIS EVENING.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS SPREAD ACROSS ALL INTERIOR SECTIONS...WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS EXTREME NE FL INTO SE GA...WILL TRIM THE FLOOD WATCH TO
REMOVE NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES. AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST
TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL NUDGE NORTH TO AROUND THE I-10 CORRIDOR...PLACING MUCH OF
NE FL IN THE WARM...MORE UNSTABLE SECTOR. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH SOME ROTATIONAL
POTENTIAL THIS EVENING LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WILL USE
SEVERE WORDING FOR THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTMS FOR NE FL...WITH
LITTLE OR NO TSTM ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SE GA.
FURTHER NORTH...THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE...WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT OF 2-4 INCHES AND LOCAL AMOUNTS TO
6 INCHES. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE AS THE LOW ENTERS
NE FL/SE GA. LOWS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TO THE 60S IN THE WARM SECTOR.

SATURDAY...THE STACKED LOW WILL CROSS EXTREME SE GA EARLY...MOVING
EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY LATE AFTN. NAM SHOWS A NEAR DRY
SLOT AS THE LOW PASSES...WITH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOWING MORE PRECIP
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WILL USE SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH NUMEROUS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SE GA TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S ACROSS SE GA...TO
AROUND 70 FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR...AND MID 70S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO
THE WRN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS INTO CENTRAL GA.A DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
FUNNEL SWD INTO OUR AREA. LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE BY SUN AFTN. BREEZY NORTH WINDS MAY BE NEAR LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST WHERE SPEEDS WILL BE
AROUND 20G35MPH. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HOLD LOWS IN THE 50S
MOST AREAS. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S ACRS
ERN HALF OF SE GA AND ALONG THE NE FL COAST. FARTHER INLAND...THE
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S AND APPROACH 80 AROUND OCALA.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUN NIGHT...WINDS VEER NNE AS THE RIDGE SETTLES FARTHER SOUTH OVER
GA AND WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 50S NORTH TO
AROUND 60 EXTREME SOUTH

REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...
MOSTLY DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS WITH MINS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SFC FRONT MAY BRING A QUICK
SHOT OF SHOWERS OVER SE GA ON WED...BUT ONLY ADVERTISED 20% CHANCE
OF POPS FOR SE GA GIVEN WEAK FORCING.

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TNGT WITH CIGS
500-800 FT. WAVES OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LOWER VSBY TO 1-2SM. AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...GNV HAS IMPROVED TO VFR BUT EXPECTED
TO DETERIORATE AGAIN THIS EVENING TO MVFR. WINDS HAVE VEERED TO SE
AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES...BUT CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20-25 KTS NEAR
THE COAST. ISOLATED TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLIGHTLY NEARSHORE...WILL LOWER THE SCA
AND USE CAUTION TNGT...WITH SCA REDEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS/SURF/COASTAL FLOODING: HIGH RISK THROUGH TONIGHT.
MODERATE RISK SATURDAY. HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH TNGT FOR 5-7
FEET BREAKERS. TIDES ARE RUNNING 1-1.25 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...AND
WITH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE (AROUND MIDNIGHT) AROUND 7 FEET AT
FERNANDINA BEACH...LEVELS MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD. WITH THE
SITUATION MARGINAL AND VERY SHORT LIVED...WILL NOT ISSUE A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  55  64  53  70 / 100  50  40  20
SSI  64  66  57  68 / 100  60  50  30
JAX  64  71  56  72 / 100  40  40  30
SGJ  66  70  59  71 /  90  40  30  30
GNV  64  72  55  77 /  80  40  20  20
OCF  65  76  55  79 /  70  40  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-
     COLUMBIA-DUVAL-HAMILTON-NASSAU-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-
     BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

ALLEN/TRABERT/WOLF




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