Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 061333
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
933 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MAY CONTINUE...
...NEAR RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND NOT AS WINDY TODAY...BUT REMAINING COOLER
THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S. NORTHWEST FLOW
GENERALLY CLOSE TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAKNESS IN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST TO WHERE A WEAK
SEA BREEZE MAY DEVELOP AT THE BEACHES AND MAY PUSH INTO TO I-95 AT
THE MOST BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH AT
THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...NEXT TROF TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW PARKED OFF THE
CAROLINAS AND WILL PUSH THROUGH SE GA AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS SE GA AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...ALTHOUGH A FEW HI-RES MODELS ARE TRYING TO KICK OFF A FEW
SPRINKLES ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OVER THE LAND AREAS OVERNIGHT AND WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
DROPPING OFF...EXPECTING ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 INLAND AND POSSIBLE RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED AT
GAINESVILLE AND JACKSONVILLE...OTHERWISE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ALONG
THE ST JOHNS RIVER AND COAST.

SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF PUSHES INTO THE WRN ATLC AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES IN THE LOWER
80S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. AGAIN NORTHWEST FLOW
AROUND 10-15G20-25 MPH BUT JUST WEAK ENOUGH AT THE COAST TO ALLOW
AN ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO ALMOST I-95.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
ELEVATED NW WINDS AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 4-6 FT LINGER OVER THE
OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL KEEP SCEC HEADLINE IN PLACE FOR
NOW OTHERWISE WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW AND SUBSIDING SEAS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CLOSE TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY WITH RH`S NEAR
CRITICAL VALUES AND WINDS NEAR 15 MPH OVER INLAND AREAS. RH`S WILL
BE LOW AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS NEW MOON PHASE PEAKS
TODAY BUT WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW NO COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS TIED THIS MORNING 5/6 AT JAX/SSI AND SET AT GNV.
RECORD EVENT REPORTS (RER`S) SENT.

NEAR RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE AGAIN AT GAINESVILLE/JACKSONVILLE AGAIN
TONIGHT BUT LIKELY OUT OF REACH AT ALMA/ST SIMONS ISLAND.
RECORD LOWS FOR SAT MAY 7TH LISTED BELOW
JACKSONVILLE     49/2011
GAINESVILLE      48/1992
ALMA GEORGIA     41/1954
ST SIMONS ISLAND 48/1992

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  49  81  59 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  73  56  78  62 /  10  10   0   0
JAX  76  51  81  59 /   0  10   0   0
SGJ  74  54  79  62 /   0  10   0   0
GNV  76  49  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  76  49  81  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/STRUBLE/GUILLET


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