Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 241502
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1002 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

...NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...

.UPDATE...
PRE-FRONTAL TROF CURRENTLY PUSHING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLD STORMS INTO INLD SE GA THIS MORNING AND WILL VERY SLOWLY
PROGRESS ACROSS INLD SE GA LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO COASTAL SE
GA AND NE FL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY BOTTOMED OUT
AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS NE FL AND IN THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS SE
GA AND AS OF NOW GNV/JAX HAVE SET RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FOR TODAY AT 72/70 RESPECTIVELY LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE
SECTION WHILE ALMA /AMG/ HAS TIED ITS RECORD HIGH MIN AT 65F. THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY WILL HELP PUSH MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 80
DEGREES BUT LACK OF FULL SUN WILL PROBABLY KEEP STATIONS FROM
REACHING RECORD HIGHS LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. THE
DYNAMICS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE DAY WILL
SLOWLY BE WEAKENING BUT UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME MINI BOWING LINE SEGMENTS FOR WIND
GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AS PRE-FRONTAL TROF WASHES OUT ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES EXPECT THE MILD/MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO PROMOTE ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS AND
POSSIBLE DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN AND FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS MORNING AS LIFT IS ENHANCED ALONG COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY
OF NE FL TOWARDS MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS IN MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
OCCASIONALLY SCATTERING OUT WITH A VFR BROKEN DECK AT 3000-4000 FT
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A RETURN TO IFR OR LOWER CIGS WITH
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS FRONT DRIFTS INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SW FLOW REMAINS IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE TODAY THEN DIMINISHES
TONIGHT AS FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE WATERS TONIGHT...THEN
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON WIND
SPEEDS BUT GENERALLY IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. ELEVATED SEAS TODAY IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE WITH HEADLINES
ENDING TONIGHT AS SEAS FALL BELOW 7 FT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK AS SWELLS IMPACT THE COAST IN THE
OFFSHORE FLOW. BREAKER REPORTS IN THE 3-5 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL 6
FT SETS THIS MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 24TH...
JAX 67/1992...GNV 68/1957...AMG 65/1977...SSI 67/1998

RECORD HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 24TH...
JAX 85/1967...GNV 86/1948...AMG 83/1986...SSI 83/1967

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  79  56  59  47 /  50  50  60  80
SSI  73  59  62  48 /  20  40  70  80
JAX  80  61  65  47 /  20  40  70  80
SGJ  79  63  69  50 /  20  30  80  90
GNV  80  61  67  48 /  20  30  80  90
OCF  82  62  70  51 /  20  30  90  90

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20
     NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20
     NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/GUILLET




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