Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 281812

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
212 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

A large upper level low is dropping southeast out of the Great
Lakes and is going to set up shop over the eastern seaboard for
about the next five days. This low and upper level trough is
going to drive a frontal boundary into the area which will become
quasi- stationary through the weekend. At the surface we are
going to be in a weak pattern which will really be more of a col
area than anything else as the front begins to wash out. Overall
we should see diurnal afternoon and evening convection over the
land areas and coastal showers over the coastal waters and
immediate coastal areas just about any time through the late

The long term forecast is highly dependent upon the future
movements of Tropical Storm Matthew entering the Caribbean Sea.

On Sunday the upper level low begins to lift out to the northeast and
the eastern seaboard trough begins to open up. By Monday
Matthew should be lifting northward into a weakness between the
mid-Atlantic ridge along 75-77W and weak ridging over the Gulf of
Mexico. If everything stay on track we should see an increasing
northeasterly flow along our coastal areas as the gradient begins
to tighten up.At this point nothing stronger than a local
northeaster on Monday and if everything stays on track Matthew
should pass well east of the area with large waves and dangerous
surf developing. As it looks like Matthew will be a large system
Tuesday and Wednesday may be breezy along the coast as we will be
in the outer periphery of the circulation. Local interests should
closely monitor the future progress of Matthew.


Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at the regional
terminals after 18Z, with cloud bases in the 2000-3000 ft level
expected and periods of MVFR cigs possible at GNV towards 18Z,
and elsewhere after 20Z. We will likely add TEMPO groups for
periods of sub-VFR conditions and gusty winds up to 30 knots at
the terminals during the 18Z TAF issuance. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail at the regional terminals until at least
06Z. Low stratus ceilings will be possible after 06Z tonight
ahead of an approaching cold front, especially at GNV.


Basically looking at a light, 10 to 15 knot, flow situation over
the coastal waters with shifting winds as the quasi-stationary
front shifts back and forth across the region and slowly washes

Rip Currents: Low Risk continues in the offshore flow with surf in the
1-2 ft range.

AMG  68  90  60  87 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  70  88  66  82 /  30  30  20   0
JAX  70  90  65  87 /  20  50  10  10
SGJ  69  86  66  85 /  30  50  40  20
GNV  70  88  64  86 /  40  50  10  10
OCF  70  86  67  87 /  50  60  20  30


.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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