Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
FXUS62 KJAX 261846
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
245 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Easterly flow off the Atlantic has allowed the seabreeze to push
well inland. A scattered cumulus field has developed ahead of the
seabreeze with clear skies behind it along the I-95 corridor. A
stray very light shower or two has been observed today across our
southern offshore waters, Otherwise, radar was picking up some
chaff across the outer waters off the southeast Georgia coast.
Seasonable temps and low humidity prevailed area wide. A few
additional light showers may develop across our southern waters
through this evening but these are expected to stay just offshore.
Patchy shallow ground fog will be possible late tonight but not
enough to warrant inclusion in the forecast at this time.
Tomorrow will be practically a carbon copy of today with slightly
higher humidity levels along the Atlantic Coast as deeper easterly
flow becomes established. It will also be a little breezier at the
coast behind the seabreeze with easterly winds increasing to
around 15 to possibly 20 mph at the beaches in the afternoon. An
increase in low level moisture across our extreme southern zones
could support possibly an isolated storm tomorrow afternoon, but
this is not worthy of anything more than a 20% chance at this
Fri Night through Sunday Night...Models in general agreement with
taking some combination of trof/low pressure north of the bahamas
friday night towards the GA/SC coastal areas by late on Sunday. With
this general track...it will keep most of NE FL/SE GA on the "drier"
side of this potential tropical system which will lead to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms with rain chances generally in
the 20-30% range along the coast and 20% or less further inland.
This scenario will lead to max temps reaching into the lower 90s
inland and mid/upper 80s along the coast with the sea breeze pushing
well inland on Saturday but possibly stalling near the I-95 and St
Johns River Basin on Sunday afternoon as the system pushes NE of the
region and steering flow just above the surface becomes
northwesterly. Overnight lows generally moderating through the
period but still expecting 60s inland and lower 70s along the coast.
The main impact from this system will continue to be elevated surf
and rip current threat at the beaches.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Monday...Models still linger low pressure system just NE of the
region along the GA/SC coastal areas and similar conds to Sunday are
expected with widely scattered 20-30% showers/storms during the
afternoon as steering flow remains out of the NW and sea breeze
remains trapped closer to the I-95 corridor. Max temps will continue
to heat up with upper 80s at the coast and lower 90s inland.
Tue-Thu...Not as much confidence as models try to wash out low
pressure system and leave weak trough extending down the SE coastal
areas into NE FL/SE GA and with slightly more moisture to work with
expect more of a shift to normal sea breeze regime as both sea
breeze fronts move inland each day and rain chances become more
climo in nature in the 30-40% range with diurnal showers/storms. Max
temps will remain slightly above normal in the lower to possibly
middle 90s inland and upper 80s at the coast.
VFR conditions will continue.
East to northeast winds will prevail through late Saturday with
conditions near or just shy of SCEC headline conditions at times.
Will be monitoring the development of trough/sfc low moving toward
the SE CONUS through the weekend which will have affects on local
winds and seas from Friday through early next week. NHC continues
to monitor this system and is noted in Special Tropical Weather
Outlook. Uncertainty on how this system evolves at this time so
mariners are urged to monitor latest forecast for updates.
Regardless of any development...expect a gradual increase in NE to
E winds and building seas after tonight. A chance of showers and
storms over the marine area by Friday night through early next
RIP CURRENTS: Low to moderate risk of rip currents today will
increase Friday through the holiday weekend. Moderate to
potential high risk is anticipated on Memorial Day Weekend.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 61 89 62 89 / 0 0 0 20
SSI 70 82 70 83 / 0 0 10 20
JAX 64 85 65 86 / 0 10 10 30
SGJ 69 82 70 84 / 10 10 10 20
GNV 60 88 64 90 / 0 10 0 30
OCF 62 88 65 90 / 0 20 0 30