Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 031923
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
323 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...OR A LEAST A LOW LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER
THAT WAS ONCE PART OF ERIKA...ARE MOVING SLOWLY EAST OF THE
GEORGIA COAST LINE AND BRING A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND
COASTAL WATERS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA AND
ALABAMA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT DRIVING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EAST ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA TONIGHT. THEN THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND SHOULD DRIVE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEST TONIGHT.

ON FRIDAY THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN A COL AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS
TO BEGIN THE DAY. NAM12 IS INDICATING WE WILL START THE DAY WITH
CONVECTION OVER APALACHEE BAY AND THE REMNANT CONVECTION WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTH FLORIDA AREA DURING THE MORNING AS AN AREA OF
RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LARGELY CUTTING OF CONVECTIVE
DESTABILIZATION.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST US THIS WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH
BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN US. SFC LOW OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL DRIFT TO OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY THEN SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHWARD SHIFTING INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE SE
ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH LOW OFFSHORE AND HIGH TO OUR
NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ALLOWING BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO REMAIN ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
CONVECTION IN SE GA. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
EARLIER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS AND
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER 80S/LOW
90S MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH MID/UPPER 80S ON
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS A
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WHILE AT LOWER LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN THE
EASTERN US AS COASTAL TROUGH SETS UP OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC COAST. BY MID WEEK SFC PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AS MEAN
LAYER TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL US AND STACKED RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE FL PENINSULA. EXPECTING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ON MON AND TUES WITH
TROUGH ALOFT AND PWATS AROUND 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES...WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE
EXPECTED OVER NE FL AND COASTAL SE GA EACH AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD SEE A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN AS RIDGE BUILDS IN
WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED AREA WIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ON MONDAY INCREASING BACK INTO THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW/MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
GOING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN
FIELDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER ALABAMA MOVE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LOW LEVEL VORTICY THAT WAS ERIKA WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND A WEAK NORTHEASTER WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE
WHICH MAY TIGHTEN UP THE GRADIENT INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA FOR THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS:A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  94  73  91 /  10  20  30  50
SSI  76  89  76  87 /  20  20  30  40
JAX  75  92  73  88 /  20  30  20  40
SGJ  75  89  75  87 /  30  40  30  40
GNV  73  92  72  90 /  20  40  30  60
OCF  74  91  73  90 /  20  50  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

GUILLET/SANDRIK/



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