Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 290104
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
904 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH...JUST NORTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER MID-EVENING. PRE-FRONTAL SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE
DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...THUS HAVE CANCELLED THE
SEVERE TSTM WATCH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY CONTINUES CLOSE
TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM INTERIOR SE GA TO JUST WEST
OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
ACTIVITY DECREASING A LITTLE...BUT AT LEAST SOME ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE IN SE GA THIS EVENING MOVING INTO NORTHERN FL BY
THE OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO HANG UP. WILL USE ISOLATED
TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS FOR MOST OF NE FL LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME INCREASE LATE SOUTH OF JAX AS THE BOUNDARY
HANGS UP. PRECIP WILL END ACROSS MOST OF SE GA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE SOUTH. GIVEN SOME RESIDUAL BULK
LAYER SHEAR...AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS SE GA INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. CLOUDS
AND SOME WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST GA TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY TONIGHT.
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE COVERAGE OF ANY STORMS TONIGHT WILL
BE ISOLATED.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT...THEN
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THEREFORE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TUESDAY WILL BE AT KGNV.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE WATERS. WILL CONTINUE THE CAUTION FOR THE OUTER LEGS
WITH 15 KT NEARSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  90  65  93 /  30  10  10  10
SSI  76  91  74  89 /  30  10  10  10
JAX  75  92  71  92 /  20  20  10  10
SGJ  77  91  74  90 /  30  40  20  10
GNV  75  92  69  93 /  30  40  20  10
OCF  75  92  71  94 /  30  50  30  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE/WALKER





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