Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 250921
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
421 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY...PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY WITH CHILLY MORNING TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE GOMEX AND FL
PENINSULA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH TODAY AS SFC BOUNDARY
PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIP DOWN OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WITH SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM
THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH FORCING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND
MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL WILL MOVE IN FROM THE GULF SPREADING EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN FRONT MAKES ITS EXIT. HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER NE FL WITH A MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND SW FLOW LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL COME UP TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS SE GA AND MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MUCH OF NE FL.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH
EARLY MONDAY...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS SOUTH OF JAX ENDING IN
THE MORNING HOURS AND CLEARING OCCURRING IN THE AFTN. COOL AND
BREEZY/LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. A CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS OF 35-40 INLAND WITH
LOWER 40S COAST. SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...BUT REMAINING
LOCALLY BREEZY ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... DEEP LAYER
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS MIDWEEK WILL DEAMPLIFY LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL. WEAK
IMPULSES MAY CLIP THE AREA IN ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...BUT
WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE/DYNAMICS...WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
ECMWF SHOWING A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY...AND THE GFS
MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FRONT HANGING IT UP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVER
THE WEEKEND. WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR
NOW...DEPICTING A MAINLY DRY FCST.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOWS CIGS COULD
BECOME AN ISSUE AROUND MIDNIGHT AT DUVAL SITES AND GNV AS ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
MONDAY. THIS WILL BEGIN AN INCREASE IN WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT UP TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY MONDAY MORNING FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS AND SCEC CONDITIONS IN THE NEARSHORE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN AT
THE SFC.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY/LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED DISPERSION VALUES. RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS..SO NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  43  57  37 /   0  20  10   0
SSI  58  47  57  38 /   0  30  20   0
JAX  62  45  60  36 /   0  40  20   0
SGJ  61  49  59  39 /   0  30  20   0
GNV  64  46  60  36 /   0  40  10   0
OCF  65  48  62  38 /   0  40  20   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/GUILLET/



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