Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 222015 CCA
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
314 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

...PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8
PM THIS EVENING...

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...

Frontal boundary was moving back northward across southeast
Georgia this afternoon. A broken line of storms was moving across
northeast Florida and coastal southeast Georgia, and isolated
severe storms are possible along it.

An area of low pressure will rapidly deepen across Alabama and
northern Georgia late this afternoon into the evening, and a cold
front will continue to surge eastward. This is the main threat for
late this afternoon into the early evening. This squall line was
moving quickly eastward across the northeastern Gulf
northward...extending from a line from just west of Tallahassee,
FL to just west of Albany, GA. This line will move into the
western portion of our region between 4 and 5 pm...reach I-75 to
Waycross by 6 PM...and then Highway 301 to I-95 and the coast of
southeast Georgia by 7 PM...then the line should exit the region
before 9 PM. This is a Particularly Dangerous Situation, with
strong long-track tornadoes, hail up to lime size, and damaging
winds up to 85 mph possible.

Isolated to scattered showers are forecast to wrap around the area
of low pressure overnight tonight. Cooler temperatures are
forecast, with lows in the 50s.

.SHORT TERM /Monday and Tuesday/...

Monday: Large area of low pressure will move across the southeast
on Monday, and breezy conditions are expected. Westerly winds will
increase to 15-25 mph with gusts up to 30-35 mph. A Wind Advisory
could be required for portions of the region on Monday. Highs will
be in the 60s to near 70.

Tuesday: Area of low pressure will move to off the coast of the
mid Atlantic states on Tuesday, and weak high pressure will build
over the region in the afternoon. Mostly sunny skies will prevail
with highs in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees.

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...

An upper trough and surface low will push across the upper Great
Lakes on Wednesday, and a surface cold front will move into the
the southeast. High pressure will shift east to the Bahamas, with
southwesterly flow expected to prevail. Temperatures will warm
back into the 70s. The frontal boundary will move through the
region late Wednesday night and through the day on Thursday,
bringing a chance for showers. Northwesterly winds will then
prevail behind the front, with cooler conditions prevailing into
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Rounds of strong to severe storms will move through the TAF sites
this afternoon. The first one was moving through at 19-20Z, with
isolated severe storms. The main threat will be from 22-02Z with
wind gusts up to 85 mph, large hail up to lime size, and strong
long track tornadoes. The winds will be variable across Duval
County TAF sites for the next few hours due to a boundary over
the County. Southwesterly winds around 10 knots will prevail at
KSSI in the cold pool

&&

.MARINE...
A Gale Warning is in effect through Monday night for the offshore
Atlantic waters beyond 20nm offshore. Winds will increase to 30-35
knots with gusts up to 40 knots across the offshore waters, with
seas building to 7-11 feet. Nearshore: A Small Craft Advisory is
in effect through Monday night for winds of 20-25 knots.
Occasional gusts to gale force are possible.

A squall line with move through the waters late this afternoon
into the evening, with severe storms and waterspouts possible.
Strong winds will continue through Monday night before subsiding.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  53  65  44  66 /  30  20   0   0
SSI  57  66  47  64 /  60  20   0   0
JAX  57  66  45  67 /  50  10   0   0
SGJ  59  68  45  68 /  80  10   0   0
GNV  56  67  43  68 /  40  10   0   0
OCF  58  69  45  70 /  70  20   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for Hamilton.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for Alachua-Baker-
     Bradford-Clay-Coastal Duval-Coastal Nassau-Columbia-Flagler-
     Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Duval-Inland Nassau-Marion-Putnam-
     St. Johns-Suwannee-Union.

GA...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for Appling-
     Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-Coffee-Echols-
     Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce-Ware-Wayne.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for Appling-Atkinson-
     Bacon-Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn-
     Coffee-Echols-Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce-
     Ware-Wayne.

AM...Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Tuesday for Waters from Altamaha
     Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60
     NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Kennedy/Nelson/Guillet


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