Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 111116
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
716 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 716 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE STAYING IN PLACE
THROUGH SATURDAY AND ALL FRONTAL ACTIVITY KEEPING ITS DISTANCE. AS
SUCH...THIS IS MOSTLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EXPECT THE USUAL PATCHY
VALLEY FOG WHICH WILL BE BURNING OFF BY 8 AM. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S TODAY AND CREEP UP TO NEAR 90
TOMORROW. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S...IT WILL BE HOT...BUT NOT
UNBEARABLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE ESSENTIALLY
THE SAME AS THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN STATES AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL DOMINATE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHILE THERE WILL BE
RATHER BROAD TROUGHING EXTENDING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL US.
HOWEVER...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST SAT INTO SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD
BEGIN THE START OF A PERIOD OF HEIGHT FALLS AND AN UNSETTLED PERIOD.
A SERIES OF A COUPLE MORE SHORTWAVES SHOULD ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THEY ROTATE
AROUND A RATHER DEEP MID SUMMER UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS UPPER LOW
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE UPPER MID WEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND THEN EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AT
MIDWEEK...BEFORE RETREATING BACK INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BY WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER LOW DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE SOUTHERN END APPROACHING THE LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION. THEN A STRONGER SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW SHOULD DRIVE SOUTH AND OVERTAKE THE INITIAL BOUNDARY. THIS
COLD FRONT SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DESPITE IT BEING MID JULY IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST...WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ESPECIALLY AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EASTERN
KY FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BE IN SHARP CONTRAST
AND A RELIEF TO THE TEMPERATURES IN THE NEAR TERM WHICH WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT AND TRACK OF MCS ACTIVITY
LIKELY DETERMINING IF...WHEN AND WHERE THERE WILL BE ANY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. WITH THE PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN...MANY LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE BEEN ON THE DRY SIDE OVER THE LAST MONTH TO 6 WEEKS SHOULD
RECEIVE SOME RELIEF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 716 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

THE VALLEY FOG WILL BE BURNING OFF BY 1300Z AND THEN STAY VFR UNTIL
NEAR DAWN TOMORROW. EXPECTING THE FOG TO RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT AND
HAVE PRETTY MUCH GONE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JJ






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