Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 232004
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
404 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PESKY LOW SC DECK IS ONLY JUST NOW BREAKING UP IN THE FAR EAST.
PIKE...MARTIN...AND PORTIONS OF JOHNSON AND FLOYD COUNTIES STILL HAVE
YET TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. BUT TRANSITING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE...AND RIDGE AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FOG POTENTIAL.
MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS NOT BEEN AS STRONG AS MIGHT BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED SOLIDLY IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. LOWEST WAS 36...BRIEFLY AT THE QUICKSAND
MESONET. HARLAN HAS BEEN AT 37 FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH TROUBLE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S IN OUR
VALLEY LOCATIONS BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DO
NOT SEE HOW FROST COULD BE MUCH OF A THREAT. FOG SHOULD BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE AS SFC AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS AR/TX/LA SHOULD SET UP CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIVE COOLING. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SPOTS THROUGH OUR EASTERN
VALLEYS.

OTHERWISE...WEATHER LOOK TRANQUIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MID...UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY TOMORROW MORNING. BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
MORE THAN SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. INHERITED
TEMPS LOOKED PRETTY GOOD FOR THE SHORT TERM. ONLY TWEAKED TEMPS
TOWARDS LATEST MODEL BLENDS...RESULTING IN VERY MINOR CHANGES
OVERALL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY REGION. AT THAT POINT A
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN COAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO WITH A SHORTWAVE TO ITS SOUTH APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO
NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAWN ON SUNDAY...WITH THE TRIALING
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN
INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE ELSE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY.

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER PROGRESSIVE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AND THEN DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...BUT AS A TROUGH MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND WITH BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURES FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW IS PROJECTED TO TRACK WELL TO THE
WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA TOWARD JAMES BAY AT MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...EVENTUALLY...AND ALSO THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES COULD
LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...AT LEAST IF THE GFS WERE TO
VERIFY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...MONDAY WILL PROBABLY BE
THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS. THE MEX AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE REMAINS
WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT THE SUPERBLEND WAS A TREND
UPWARD. HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 15C...SOME
LOCATIONS COULD TOP 80. OTHERWISE...THE TYPICAL FALL MORNING FOG AND
A RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT SHOULD BE A FEATURED ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PERSISTENT LOW SC DECK IS FINALLY DISSIPATING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. EASTERN LOCATIONS...SJS HAVE BEEN EVEN SLOWER TO MIX OUT AND
ARE ONLY NOW BEGINNING TO SEE SOME BREAKS AND SUNSHINE. LOW CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH TO CONCERN
US THEREAFTER. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS...POSSIBLY SOME
MID LEVEL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG. DRIER AIR IS MIXING DOWN BUT SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD
RECOVER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE
AREA DECENT RADIATIVE COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. MAIN THREAT WOULD EXIST AT SME AND
SJS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH. FOR NOW MENTIONED SOME MVFR AT
SME. COULD SEE SOME FOG AT SJS...IT BEING ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THE
BIG SANDY BUT FOR NOW WENT OPTIMISTIC WITH PLANS TO REEVALUATE TRENDS
IN AFTERNOON DEW POINTS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY
NORTHEAST BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY






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