Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 142110
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
410 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

THE SNOW TOOK A BIT LONGER TO FALL TO THE GROUND THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE DRY AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS ARE
NOW SEEING AT LEAST LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...WITH 1 INCH PER HOUR
RATES POSSIBLE. IN THESE HEAVIER BANDS...VISIBILITIES HAVE REDUCED
TO LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO A WINTRY MIX FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME...THEN TO RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.

AS A SFC LOW MOVES UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES OF RAIN FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS HAS PROMPTED A FLOOD WATCH TO BE
ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN
THOUGH THE AMOUNTS OR AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN COULD CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT DAY...ANY...IF NOT ALL OF THE RAIN WILL LIKELY BECOME RUNOFF
DUE TO THE ALREADY FROZEN GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEMS AFFECTING OUR AREA WILL BE WEAKER
AND ACCOMPANIED BY A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE FAIRLY WOUND UP...THE SYSTEM IS LACKING
DEEP MOISTURE BUT SHOULD BRING A QUICK SHOT OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN POSSIBLY TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAKER
SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THE CLOUD
COVER AND PERHAPS SQUEEZING OUT A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER OVER OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES.

HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT BEGINNING ON THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF A RIDGE
CENTERED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST RIGHT NOW SNEAKS EASTWARD ACROSS
MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AFTER A DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVES IN THE
FAST FLOW ALOFT NORTH OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
BACK INTO OUR FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GOOD NEWS:
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BASED ON CURRENT EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
MAIN AREA OF SNOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BOTH CEILINGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHERE LIFR AND VLIFR ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW BANDS THAT MATERIALIZE. THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AROUND DAWN AS THE SNOW
TRANSITIONS OVER TO RAIN. HOWEVER...SINCE THIS TRANSITION IS
EXPECTED TO HAPPEN QUICKLY...DID NOT INCLUDE FZRA IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106>109-111-
112-114>117.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ044-051-
052-104.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ050-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JVM


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