Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 250955
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
455 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 455 AM EST SUN FEB 25 2018

A surface cold front is currently moving across western Kentucky,
with the main precipitation shield making steady progress to the
east out ahead of the boundary. The leading edge of the more
intense convection has exited eastern Kentucky with mainly
moderate rains following in its wake. Will let the Flood Watch
ride through 7 am, given the ongoing rainfall, but the flood
threat is diminishing and will likely let this expire as
scheduled.

The front will move through the area after 7 am, with gusty west
winds up to 30 mph occurring for a time. Most locations should be
rain-free by around noon, with some clouds hanging on into the
afternoon, as west southwest flow continues aloft. Highs will be
cooler today, ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Tonight into Monday, a mid-level trough axis will dampen as it
heads east from the Plains to the Appalachians. While deeper
moisture will be well southeast of our area, enough lift
associated with upper level support may brush our southeastern
counties with some showers. As such, will hold onto low chance
POPs. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s in the Bluegrass,
to the lower 40s across the southeast. Highs on Monday will be
similar to today, generally around the 60 degree mark.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 455 AM EST SUN FEB 25 2018

The models are in general agreement with a fairly amplified long
wave pattern to continue across the CONUS. Details for the middle
and late work week are still a little murky, but confidence is
increasing on another bout of wet weather from Wednesday through
Thursday for eastern Kentucky.

Ridging will start out across the area, with dry weather expected
Monday night through Tuesday. Moisture will then be on the
increase Tuesday night into Wednesday, as a southern stream short
wave moves across the lower Mississippi Valley. By Thursday, the
northern and southern streams look to phase, with a deepening
area of low pressure moving from the Ohio Valley to the mid-
Atlantic by Friday. This looks to be a more dynamic system,
with widespread precipitation a good bet across eastern Kentucky,
and a potentially very breezy day for Thursday. A decent cool
down will occur behind this system, with temperatures dropping
back closer to normal readings into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EST SUN FEB 25 2018

VFR and some MVFR in showers and thunderstorms was initially in
place across the region. An area of showers and some embedded
thunderstorms is moving into the western parts of the area. Vis
and or CIGS should be down into the MVFR if not the IFR range at
times during heavier showers during the next 3 to 6 hours as well
as along and immediately behind the cold front. Once convection
exits with the cold front, VFR conditions should return along with
slackening winds between 12Z and 18Z. Winds will be gusty generally
in the 10 to 15KT range with gusts of 20 to 30KT out of the south
to southwest. Stronger showers or any thunderstorms may bring
gusts up to 40kt. Winds should shift to the southwest and then
west as the front moves from west to east through 13Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM EST this morning for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>085-104-106>109-111-112-114.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JP



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