Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
FXUS63 KJKL 261750 AAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
150 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Issued at 135 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016
Did an update to the grids through the rest of the afternoon to
fine tune the Sky and T/Td grids per the latest obs and trends.
These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
UPDATE Issued at 930 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2016
Updated the grids this morning to remove the frost and fine tune
T/Td grids based on current obs and trends. Have dropped the
frost advisory and updated the HWO and zones. The grids have been
sent to the NDFD and web servers.
UPDATE Issued at 655 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2016
Receiving reports of some frost, especially in southeast Kentucky
this morning. Temperatures have steadied off in the mid 30s. Made
some temperatures tweaks to match this trend. Otherwise, no other
changes this Wednesday morning.
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2016
High clouds continue to stream across the region early this
morning. These clouds have had little impact on temperatures as
our eastern valleys have fallen into the middle 30s and will
likely fall into the lower 30s by daybreak. This should be cold
enough for some patchy frost. Plan to let the frost advisory run
with no changes.
The cold weather will be short lived as a warm front will lift
northward across the region today, with temperatures climbing into
the 70s by this afternoon. High clouds will likely thin out as the
front lifts north today. However, an approaching mid level trough
will bring increasing mid/high clouds again tonight as it moves
into the Ohio river valley. Still expect our eastern valleys to
decouple early on tonight and fall quickly back into the 40s by
late evening. As the trough moves closer overnight, gradient will
increase and we may see those temperatures start to come up a bit,
especially as the clouds thicken up overnight. The ECMWF has
slowed down the trough to match the GFS, so it looks like the main
rain chances will come on Thursday. However, models have trended
weaker with the system and now looks like much of the area could
see very little if any rainfall with this system. In fact, most
models agree no more than a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall
will fall at most. Thus, pops have been cut way back and for
southwest areas, only a mention of sprinkles is warranted at this
time. With the weaker system, have also removed any mention of
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 357 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2016
Following a stray shower/sprinkle across Pike County Thursday
evening, skies will continue to clear from west to east as high
pressure builds in. Despite calming winds and clearing skies by
Friday morning, the commence of warm air advection should negate the
threat for frost as valley temperatures bottom out in the upper 30s
to low 40s while ridges only drop into the mid 40s.
Unprecedented late October/early November warmth then looks likely
to materialize from Friday into next week as upper ridging spans the
southern Plains through the Gulf of Mexico into the Great Lakes.
This month currently stands one day shy of the record number of 80
degree days for October at the Jackson weather forecast office. The
best chance at seeing this record tied looks to be Saturday with
Monday certainly presenting the possibility of breaking it. Gusty
southwest winds will help to mix down 850 mb temperatures of 10-15C
as 500 mb heights remain above 580 decameters. Northern stream
energy will remain active across southern Canada into the Great
Lakes this weekend, with the strongest of the associated upper
impulses arriving with an attendant northwest wind shift Sunday.
However, any precipitation stemming from this system along with
any appreciable cooler air looks to stay confined north of eastern
Kentucky. This may spell temperatures topping out in the mid 70s
Sunday as opposed to upper 70s-low 80s Saturday and again Monday,
but still well above normal readings in the mid 60s.
If the aforementioned upper high shifts and amplifies across the
southern U.S. as currently progged, further increasing
heights/thicknesses could bring the warmest November temperature
readings ever recorded at the National Weather Service in Jackson.
The November record high temperature of 82 degrees could very
well be tied or exceeded through mid next week with warm air
firmly entrenched east of the Continental Divide.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016
VFR conditions will be experienced through the period. Southwest
winds of between 5 and 10 knots will continue into early evening.
Look for high and mid level clouds to begin to thicken late in
the period. Some low level wind shear may develop ahead of an
approaching cold front late this evening as winds die off at the
TAF sites have included that in the TAFs. For Thursday, a mostly
dry cold front will pass through with winds picking up to near 15
kts by early afternoon along with gusts to 20-25 kts. Do not
foresee cigs below VFR during this or any real impact from