Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 300828
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
428 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

AFTER RAINS IMPACTED SECTIONS OF THE CWA YESTERDAY...LINGERING
MOISTURE HAS LED TO DECENT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS ALSO BEEN OBSERVED...AND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THE SUN
BEGINS TO RISE THIS MORNING...EXPECT FOG TO LIFT AND GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC CONUS WILL SLOWLY
BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY AS TROUGHING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHIFT
WILL BE OUR PRIMARY WEATHER DRIVER OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. AT THE
SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
MISSOURI...WILL REACH WESTERN INDIANA BY THIS EVENING...THEN
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHEAST...JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS
OCCURS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH KENTUCKY. STILL
FAVORING THE GFS SOLUTION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH SHOULD
TRAVERSE WESTERN KY LATE TONIGHT...CENTRAL KY THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...AND STALL OUT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF KY BETWEEN 18Z
SUNDAY AND 0Z MONDAY.

FOR TODAY...CONTINUED STRONG WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL BRING YET ANOTHER HIGH HUMIDITY/WARM WEATHER DAY TO
THE REGION...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS...BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY. LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY DON/T LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME GOOD RAINERS AND DECENT
LIGHTNING FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS. AS WE LOSE DAYTIME
HEATING...EXPECT COVERAGE TO DECREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA AWAY FROM THE BEST
FORCING OF THE INCOMING FRONT. BEGAN INCREASING POPS AGAIN BY 12Z
SUNDAY AS SUN BEGINS TO INFLUENCE UNSTABLE AIRMASS ONCE
MORE...PEAKING AS THE FRONT BEGINS PASSING OVER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING BETTER HAIL POTENTIAL DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH MUCH MORE DRYING ALOFT AND DECENT CAPE VALUES
IN THE 2 TO 3K J/KG RANGE. LAPSE RATES ARE NOT SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...BUT LI/S WILL DROP INTO THE -5 TO -6C RANGE IN SOME
LOCATIONS...INDICATING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.
ALL IN ALL...EXPECT SOME DECENT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT TO
POTENTIALLY TAKE PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST KY...WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL TO
SPC/S MARGINAL RISK OVER THIS SAME AREA FOR SUNDAY. SOMETHING TO
WATCH OUT FOR. HOWEVER...DID NOTE THE LEVEL OF MOISTURE IN THE
SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE SHALLOW...WITH UNIMPRESSIVE PWATS...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH HYDRO CONCERNS...UNLESS STORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
SAME LOCATIONS MULTIPLE TIMES.

WITH SUCH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TODAY...TEMPERATURES
COULD WARM WELL INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH
CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...AS WELL AS WINDS SHIFTING TO A MORE NW
DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 70 TO LOW 80 RANGE FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY /COOLEST IN THE
WEST/. OVERALL...SUPERBLEND AND GFS WERE THE MODELS OF CHOICE DURING
THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH MOST SHORT TERM MODELS SEEMED TO BE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A PRETTY
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. AS AN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
EXIT THE OH VALLEY AREA AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE FRONT DOES WASH OUT A BIT AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO BECOME
TIED TO DIURNAL TRENDS BUT WILL KEEP POPS THROUGH THE SUNDAY NIGHT
PERIOD AND TRANSITION TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES REALLY COOL OFF WITH LOWER 70S EXPECTED WITH THE
APPROACHING COOLER AIR MASS. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES A STALLED
BOUNDARY ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER AND ALONG THE VA/KY BORDER AND SO
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
THERE. THIS WILL BE THE CASE EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAX CHANCE OCCURRING EACH DAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT DID GO BELOW THE SUPER BLEND SOLUTION WITH THE LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND COLLABORATION WITH THE NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.

BY THURSDAY...WITH AN INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW...A WEAK WAVE
OVERHEAD...AND THE MENTIONED STATIONARY BOUNDARY...A BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE ON TAP FRO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS PERIOD WILL STILL MAINTAIN A DIURNAL TREND TO ANY
CONVECTION. STILL KEPT CLOSE TO THE SUPER BLEND SOLUTION BUT DID
NUDGE POPS BELOW A BIT DURING THE FEW DAYS WITH LACK OF UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. OVERALL...BESIDES THE EXITING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...NO DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A DEFINITE CHANCE
OF PRECIP OR AT LEAST THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS IS
SUCH THAT NOTHING ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IS DISCERNIBLE. FOR
THIS FACT...DID STAY RATHER CLOSE TO THE SUPER BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...DIURNALLY DRIVE CONVECTION HAS
CEASED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CONTINUED MOISTURE
AND WARM TEMPERATURES HAS LED TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS AND IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN
YESTERDAY. PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS ALSO BEEN OBSERVED. SO FAR THE
TAF SITES HAVE ONLY HAD MINIMAL IMPACTS. EXPECT TAF SITES TO
GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR TO VFR THROUGH 12/13Z...THOUGH A BRIEF DROP
TO IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE FOG BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE
VALLEYS. AFTER THIS POINT...FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARM MOIST CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THAT THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THESE STORMS IS STILL UNKNOWN...CONTINUED WITH MENTION
OF VCTS FOR THE HOURS WHEN STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY EXPECTED.
DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME DECENT WIND GUSTS IN THE 10
TO 20KT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THIS
EVENING...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND AS WE LOSE BEST
INSTABILITY AND HEATING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW



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