Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 061835
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
135 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE NOW WELL INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE WITH SUNSHINE IN
FULL FORCE. NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1020 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPDATED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES A TAD AND ALSO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF
WIND CHILLS AS WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT PRESENTLY. WITH FULL SUNSHINE
IN EFFECT NOW...LET THE CURRENT SPS EXPIRE FOR SLICK ROADS...SOME
SECONDARY ROADS MAY STAY SLICK...BUT WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH THE DAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VERY COLD AND FROSTY START TO THE DAY. FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY
HAD TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS. MOST RIVERS HAVE OR
ARE NEARING CREST...OTHERS ARE DROPPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AND INDICATE SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TODAY. BUT THIS FEATURE HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER...PRODUCING ONLY SOME ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR THE AREA LATER TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
OUR AREA TODAY AS WELL. WEAK RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
AND AN INCREASINGLY STRONG MARCH SUN WILL BATTLE WITH EXTENSIVE
SNOW COVER FOR GREATEST INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES OVER THE COMING
DAYS. THE SNOW PACK WILL WIN OUT TODAY BUT A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INCREASINGLY STRONGER MARCH SUN WILL BEGIN
TO EAT AWAY AT AREA SNOW COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY
THE RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT WILL GO STRAIGHT INTO AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS...ADDING TO ALREADY ELEVATED FLOWS AND EXTENDING ANY
GRADUAL DROPS IN STAGE LEVELS. SILVER LINING TO FORECAST WOULD
HAVE TO BE THE PROMISE OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER AND GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HORIZON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE EASTERN CONUS/NOAM TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS. AT THAT POINT...A CLOSED LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE MAIN BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL HAVE SOME DISTURBANCES
PASSING THROUGH IT...BUT THESE SHOULD BE GENERALLY TOO FAR NORTH
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PERIODIC INCREASES IN
CLOUDS. THE INITIAL SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN UP
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND RETURN MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO
SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE PASSES TO
OUR NORTH...AND A SOME LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. THE RESULT
SHOULD MAINLY BE JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

DISTURBANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THIS TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE HEIGHTS
RISE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO CHANCES FOR RAIN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT STANDS NOW...THU LOOKS TO BE A
BREAK IN BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN
THE NEW WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD APPEAR TO BE
INCREASING. DURING THAT TIME DEEPER MOISTURE MAY RETURN INTO THE
MS AND OH VALLEY REGION AND THERE COULD ALSO BE A STRONGER SFC
SYSTEM AND HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN THE EARLY OR MIDWEEK
SYSTEMS.

A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IS
STILL EXPECTED...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME...IF AND WHEN PRECIP OCCURS DURING THE PERIOD...IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS



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